From genuine premiership dark horse status after a rousing Round 5 win, to spiralling to the seventh line in the NRL premiership market (and a long way back from sixth) – it’s been a jarring few weeks for the Wahs.
Attempting to regroup from what was widely regarded as their poorest performance of the Andrew Webster era a week earlier in Wollongong, the Warriors submitted a new entry for that unwanted mantle courtesy of a 27-24 defeat to the previously winless Gold Coast Titans that was far more demoralising than the scoreline made it look.
The shock loss in front of sell-out home crowd was their ninth straight on Anzac Day, a run that coincidentally began against the Titans at Mt Smart Stadium in 2015 (there was no game on April 25 in 2020 due to COVID-19).
The Warriors are now on the debit side of the win-loss register with a 3-1-4 record. Believe it or not, it’s the club’s worst start from that standpoint since their COVID odyssey got underway in rough circumstances in 2020 – Nathan Brown’s 2021-22 teams both went 4-4, while Webster won five of his first eight games in charge last year.
Worryingly, only twice have the Warriors recovered from having a losing record after eight games to reach the finals: in 2001 (3-1-4) in a 26-game regular season, and in 2010 (3-5).
Meanwhile, Mt Smart’s reputation as a fortress has taken a battering – chalking up just one win and a draw from four games in 2024, and giving up early 12-0 leads in two losses. It’s only the second time in the past 18 years the Warriors have had a losing record at the venue after four games, the other being 2010.
Defensive drop-off
There’s an array of factors contributing to the Warriors’ mini-slump, but one of the most obvious is their sudden ability to prevent their opposition from scoring points – with goal-line defence a particular problem.
The Warriors’ boasted the NRL’s best defensive record across the first five rounds, leaking just 14.4 points per game.
That’s drifted to somewhere in the middle of the pack at 18.9 per game after conceding scores of 22 to Manly, 30 to St George Illawarra and 27 to Gold Coast – teams who finished 12th or lower in 2023 – representing the first time the Warriors have let in more than 18 points in three consecutive games since Andrew Webster took over.
While missed tackles can be a deceiving stat, the Warriors three highest tallies of 2024 – including a season-high 43 against the Titans – have come in the last three rounds and they now sit fourth-last in the NRL for that category.
Addin up the tries
Another barnstorming performance from Addin Fonua-Blake was a clear highlight on a bleak afternoon for the Warriors last Thursday, scoring a superb try in each half as he solidifies his place as one of the team’s chief attacking weapons near the line.
AFB’s double was his first since opening his NRL account with a pair of tries off the bench in his sixth game for Manly back in 2016.
The Cronulla-bound prop has crossed for four tries in eight games – equal-second at the Warriors with Shaun Johnson, behind only Dallin Watene-Zelezniak’s five – to continue a remarkable strike-rate since the start of last season.
Fonua-Blake powered over the stripe nine times in 2023, just three tries short of the premiership record for a prop held by Gold Coast’s Ryan James (12 in 2016). It’s not an unrealistic target to match or beat James’ mark if he remains healthy this year.
In contrast, the former Kiwi and current Tongan international scored a still-respectable 13 tries in 97 games for Manly – the same tally he has managed in his last 33 NRL appearances – while he crossed just twice in total across his first two seasons with the Warriors.
Hunted in the Hunter
The loss to the Titans was a reminder the Warriors can’t take any team in the NRL lightly. The performance of their Round 9 opponent, Newcastle Knights, to roll the in-form Dolphins in their first game after losing Kalyn Ponga for three months (and with just two wins from their first seven games) only emphasises the point.
Stand-in fullback David Armstrong produced one of the great NRL debuts to help inspire an 18-14 victory at Suncorp Stadium.
The Warriors are out to snap a three-match losing streak at McDonald Jones Stadium, having suffered losses in dreadful conditions in 2020 (20-0) and 2021 (10-6), and going down to a Ponga-less Knights side there in Round 6 last season.
With Jazz Tevaga and Bunty Afoa on the injured list, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck will be the only survivor of the Warriors’ last win at the venue, coming back from a 10-point halftime deficit to get up 24-20 in 2019 (Tohu Harris missed the match through injury).
Sam Lisone was the unlikely match-winner that night, scoring a go-ahead try with four minutes left.
The Warriors’ worst active losing streak at any regular NRL venue is nine matches at Melbourne’s AAMI Park, followed by Suncorp Stadium (five matches), Sunshine Coast Stadium (four), and then Redcliffe’s Kayo Stadium and McDonald Jones Stadium (three).
Number crunchers
A smattering of the Warriors’ best while the team was at its worst:
- Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad was a relentless workhorse again in his fourth game back from injury, running for 289 metres on top of opening his 2024 try account. He leads the NRL for average run metres with 288.4 per game, and for average post-contact metres per game (86.0).
- Addin Fonua-Blake is eighth in the NRL overall and first among forwards for metres per game (192.3) after coupling his two-try display with 217 metres from 20 carries. Meanwhile, he is first in the NRL for total post-contact metres, moving past 600 for the season in Round 8.
- Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is sixth in the competition for total run metres and seventh for total post-contact metres, racking up 182 metres with 77 post-contact against the Titans. He also had a team-high eight tackle-breaks and sits equal-fourth in the NRL in that department with 44.
- Mitch Barnett was the Warriors’ post-contact metre leader against the Titans, however, with a whopping 110 from a season-high 195 running metres.
- Shaun Johnson laid on three tries against the Titans to lift his try assist tally for the season to eight – equal-second in the NRL – while his nine line-break assists is equal-first.
- Wayde Egan had a forgettable game but topped the Warriors’ tackle count with 50, hoisting his season average to 42.2 – sixth in the NRL. Tohu Harris has the seventh-highest average (41.5) and third-highest total (332) in the league after making 38 stops without a miss against the Titans.