Evan Psarras previews all eight matchups in Round 8 of the 2024 NRL season
4:00pm, Thursday 25 April | Go Media Stadium, Auckland
The Warriors failed to capitalise on their early opportunities and paid the price as the Dragons scored a run of 5 unanswered tries to hand them a 30-12 defeat. Meanwhile, the Titans were on the wrong end of another narrow loss and remain glued to the bottom of the NRL ladder as the only winless team this season. Anything but a win will be unacceptable for the Warriors on ANZAC Day in front of a sell-out crowd.
Head To Head:
Heading into their only meeting last season the Warriors had lost their last three against the Titans. That streak came to an end with a 28-18 win in a match where Shaun Johnson grabbed a double. The Warriors have won 4 of the last 5 meetings at Go Media Stadium and 8 of the last 11 as a home favourite in this series. The match totals have been surprisingly low in their recent battles with the Under going 6-0 in the last 6 meetings and 4-0 in the last 4 hosted by the Warriors. There has been an average of 39.25 total match points across their last 8 encounters.
Stats That Matter:
After conceding 30 points away to the Dragons, defence will be the first port of call for Warriors coach Andrew Webster. This has been the case in the past with the Under holding on in 7 of their last 10 following a loss. The Warriors have failed to meet expectations at home from a betting perspective with a 3-9 line record in their last 12 as a home favourite which includes falling to cover the line in their last 4 at home. Despite remaining winless this season, the Titans have covered the line in their last 3 but that doesn’t change the fact that they have lost their last 7 away games.
Prediction:
The Titans have shown improvement in recent weeks with the duo of Fifita and Joliffe doing a commendable job to give them some much-needed yardage. The problem they face here is that the Warriors are among the competition’s best at pinning teams in their own end and forcing them to work off their own line. Kelly, Khan-Pereira and Sami will have to get through a tonne of work to make this competitive. The Titans have made it clear that they will not die wondering but rank last in linebreaks and run metres per game so far. They do not have enough attacking threats to trouble the Warriors who will turn in a performance comparable to the 34-4 win over the Rabbitohs in Round 5.
Bets:
Best: Warriors -12.5 ($1.90)
Value: Same Game Multi: Warriors WIN, Titans Under 12.5 points, Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Tryscorer ($3.40)
6:05pm, Thursday 25 April | Allianz Stadium, Sydney
This will be the 23rd edition of the ANZAC Day Cup and it is a match that rarely disappoints. The Roosters are coming off a disappointing home loss to the Storm while the Dragons stunned the Warriors 30-12 in their best performance of the season. Zac Lomax leads the Dally M count through seven rounds and is likely to shift back to the wing with Jack Bird returning. The Roosters attack will be given a boost this week with Sam Walker concussion) and Dominic Young (suspension) both available.
Head To Head:
The corresponding fixture last season was a prime example of what has made the ANZAC Day Cup one of the most anticipated games of the regular season. A Luke Keary field goal in the 73rd minute was all that separated the two sides with the Roosters holding a slight 5-4 edge in the last 9 ANZAC Day battles. It has been a different story if you consider all their battles as the Roosters have won 9 of the last 11 clashes. The Roosters have a 5-1 record in their last 6 when installed as a home favourite against the Dragons. The points have flowed with 4 of the last 5 encounters producing 44+ total match points.
Stats That Matter:
Despite posting multiple wins as the outsider so far in 2024, the Dragons have won only 1 of their last 6 when coming off a win. A 2-4 line record in those games further highlights their lack of consistency but a 65% success rate at the line as the outsider in the last year tells us that the underdog brings out the best of them. The Roosters attack rarely has consecutive poor outputs with the Over hitting in 9 of their last 12 following a loss. A fast start will be important as both teams are undefeated when leading at half time this season. The Dragons right third in defence has allowed 12 of the 25 tries conceded making Angus Crichton and Tupou value in the tryscorer markets. Tedesco has 5 tries in his last 3 against the Dragons.
Prediction:
The intensity of this match will rival that of State of Origin but once fatigue kicks in the cracks will start to appear in the defence of both sides. The Dragons have shown that they can score tries in bunches and have quickly learned how to utilise their weapons under Shane Flannagan. That includes using Lomax as an aerial target and getting Sloan into open pastures where he is close to unstoppable. This is a spot where the Overs hits at a very high rate for the Roosters with the return of Walker and Young to add the necessary spark they have lacked in recent weeks.
Bets:
Best: Over 43.5 points ($1.83)
Value: Same Game Multi: Dragons WIN, Lomax Anytime Tryscorer, Tedesco Anytime Tryscorer ($16.00)
9:50pm, Thursday 25th April | AAMI Park, Melbourne
The bye has come and gone for the Rabbitohs and to the surprise of many, Jason Demetriou is still at the helm. They have lost 7 of their last 8 dating back to last season and will again be without Latrell Mitchell who continues to serve a suspension. In contrast, the Storm continued to do what they do best – win close games. All 5 of their wins this season have come by a margin of 8 or fewer points and they sit second on the ladder despite ranking 11th in points scored per game. They also have the benefit of naming the same 17 that defeated the Roosters last week. Cook returns to the starting line-up for the visitors with Jai Arrow named to make his comeback via the bench.
Head To Head:
They split the two meetings last season with the Storm posting an 18-10 win in Round 5 before the Rabbitohs got revenge in Magic Round with a comprehensive 28-12 win. Overall, the Storm has enjoyed sustained success in this series. They have won 27 of the 32 meetings from 2005 onwards, 10 in a row when listed as a home favourite and each of the last 13 meetings played at AAMI Park. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings and 6-3 in the last 9 hosted by the Storm.
Stats That Matter:
According to the Rabbitohs faithful they showed improvement in the loss to the Sharks but it does not change the fact that they conceded 34 points. They have allowed 32.7ppg this season which is more than double that of the Storm who have held their opponents to 16.3ppg. The Rabbitohs are 0-13 at the line in their last 13 games which includes failing to cover the line in their last 5 away games. Defensively, almost half of the tries they have allowed (16 of 34) have been down the left third of the field with the opposing right winger scoring at least one try in 5 of their 6 games played so far this season. Warbrick could have a field day.
Prediction:
If there is one game a year that the Storm get up for it is ANZAC Day at AAMI Park. They have historically taken on the Warriors on this day and have won their last 8 ANZAC Day matches. They have run up some big scores along the way including winning 3 of the last 7 by 40+ points. The Rabbitohs defence has been non-existent this season and it is hard to see them slowing down the Storm. The home side will not let up and could rack up 50+ points in a thrashing.
Bets:
Best: Storm -14.5 ($2.00)
Value: Same Game Multi: Storm Over 38.5 points, Warbrick 2+ Tries, Hughes Anytime Tryscorer ($23.00)
10:00pm, Friday 26th April | 4 Pines Park, Sydney
The writing is on the wall for the Eels who were accused of giving up last week. They led 10-4 early in the second half before the Dolphins scored 40 unanswered points in a span of only 25 minutes! The Eagles came away with the two points from their trip to the Gold Coast but were less than convincing in the 34-30 win. They should be stronger through the middle this time around with Aloiai back from suspension and fan favourite Nathan Brown set to take his place on the bench after being a late withdrawal in the last two games. Ethan Sanders will make his debut at ⅝ in place of Daejarn Asi with Maika Sivo also brought back into the starting side.
Head To Head:
There is no place like home in this series with the home team having won 11 of the last 13 meetings. The Eels won an epic battle earlier this season 28-24 at CommBank Stadium but the Eagles have won 4 of the last 5 battles at 4 Pines Park. In fact, the Eagles have won 9 of the last 12 clashes as a home favourite and have averaged 33.6ppg in their last 5 home games against the Eels. Tom Trbojevic has 3 tries in his last 2 while Garrick has crossed for 7 in his last 6 in this matchup.
Stats That Matter:
The Eagles are a different beast at home. They have won their last 4 home games and are 5-0 at the line in their last 5 as the host. The visitors should not be discounted as they have a habit of bouncing back. They have won 7 of their last 11 following a loss with the Over hitting in 73% of those games. There is further support for a high scoring match as the Over is 6-0 in the last 6 between these two when the Eagles have been listed as the home team, not to mention the Over hitting in each of the Eels last 5 away games leading into this one. Of the 5 Dolphins outside backs, 4 of them got onto the scoresheet last week which spells danger against an even more potent Eagles backline.
Prediction:
Their clash in Round 3 was one of the games of the season but the Eels form has tailed off severely since then – largely due to the absence of Mitchell Moses in the halves. They have lacked direction in attack and their kicking game has suffered dramatically. The Eels have averaged fewer than 17ppg in their last 4 games without Moses while the Eagles have scored 20+ points in all but one of their games so far in 2024. The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games away from home with their only home game during that stretch being a very impressive 32-18 win over the Panthers. Expect to see them back to their best here.
Bets:
Best: Over 44.5 points ($1.83)
Value: Same Game Multi: Sea Eagles 13+, Tom Trbojevic Anytime Tryscorer, Reuben Garrick Anytime Tryscorer ($6.50)
7:30pm, Saturday 27th April | Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
A devastating first half performance allowed the Broncos to build an unassailable lead against the Raiders with Reece Walsh starring with a double. Meanwhile, the Tigers were right in it against the Panthers for the first hour but two late tries for the Premiers saw them run away with a 22-6 win. The Tigers will be without Junior Tupou, but the news gets worse as the Broncos are set to welcome back Adam Reynolds, Payne Haas and Piakura. They will however be without Ezra Mam and Selwyn Cobbo.
Head To Head:
For an 11th straight season these two teams will face off only once in the regular season. The Tigers have surprisingly won 4 of the last 5 meetings but are 0-5 in their last 5 against the Broncos as a home underdog. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with an average of 55.5 total match points across those matches. Jordan Riki could be one to keep an eye on as he has scored in each of his last three games against the Tigers with four tries in total.
Stats That Matter:
Beating the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium has been no easy feat, but they have struggled on the road in recent times. They have lost all four away games so far in 2024 which will give the Tigers a fighting chance. That said, history is against the Tigers who have lost their last 9 matches at Campbelltown Sports Stadium. The Under is 7-0 in their last 7 at this ground with an average of only 33.3 total match points across those games. Furthermore, the Under is 6-0 in the Tigers 6 games played this season and 12-5 in matches following a loss in the last year.
Prediction:
There is a huge statistical push for a play on the Unders and it cannot be ignored. There has been an average of 36.8 total match points in TIgers’ games so far this season with the Under going a perfect 6-0. The Broncos are yet to win on the road in 2024 and there is a huge discrepancy between their scoring at home and away from Suncorp Stadium. They have averaged an impressive 32ppg in home games this season, but that figure drops to 18ppg in away games.
Bets:
Best: Under 45.5 points ($1.85)
Value: Tigers +6.5, First Team To 26 Points – Neither, Staines Anytime Tryscorer ($8.50)
9:35pm, Saturday 27th April | Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
The Cowboys opened 2024 with three consecutive wins but have since lost 3 of their last 4 topped off by an embarrassing 42-6 loss to the Sharks last week. Luki and Taulagi remain sidelined which will test the Cowboys depth, but defence is the issue as only the Rabbitohs have conceded more points this season. Meanwhile, the Panthers improved to 14-1 in their last 15 after a loss with a grinding 22-6 win over the Tigers and will have the benefit of having Cleary and May return to the line-up.
Head To Head:
The home team has won the last five games in this series which includes the Cowboys winning the last two battles at Qld Country Bank Stadium. Their first meeting last year came in Round 16 with the Cowboys scoring a try in golden point to earn a dramatic win, but it is worth noting that this came during one of the State of Origin bye rounds. With their stars back on deck in Round 27 the Panthers won 44-12. The Panthers have won 8 of their last 12 against the Cowboys as the betting elect but a 2-5 line record in the last 7 as the away team suggests this one could be closer than expected.
Stats That Matter:
Points has been the theme in Cowboys matches this season. They have scored more points than any other team, but as already mentioned, have the second worst defence having allowed 27.3ppg. This has translated to a 5-0 Over record in their last 5 games and an average of 54.4 total match points per game during that stretch. That lack of application on the defensive end has seen the Cowboys post an 0-4 line record in their last 4 games. Both teams rank in the top 5 for run metres per game with the Panthers surprisingly leading the NRL in offloads per game (13.4).
Prediction:
There will be no shortage of entertainment here as the Cowboys only know one way to play this season which is to trade tries with their opposition. The most concerning part for the hosts is that the Panthers will make you pay if you allow them to gain territorial advantage. Throughout the course of their three-peat they have dismantled the best defences in the NRL, let alone a side that is leaking more than 27ppg. Both Panthers wingers (To’o and Turuva) scored doubles in the last meeting, and it will not be a surprise if at least one of them replicated that here.
Bets:
Best: Over 40.5 points ($1.85)
Value: Same Game Multi: Over 51.5 points, To’o Anytime Tryscorer, Turuva Anytime Tryscorer, Valemei Anytime Tryscorer ($15.00)
4:00pm, Sunday 28th April | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The decision to play Kalyn Ponga backfired on the Knights as the reigning Dally M winner failed to finish the game and is facing several months on the sidelines. It leaves a gaping hole at the back for a team that is 2-5 but the same cannot be said about the Dolphins who posted a 44-16 win over the Eels without Tabuai-Fidow. The merry-go -round continues in the Knights spine following the injury to Ponga who will be replaced by debutant David Armstrong.
Head To Head:
They met twice in the Dolphins inaugural season and shared the spoils. The Dolphins were 36-20 victors in Round 3 at McDonald Jones Stadium with the duo of Niu and Isaako combining for 5 tries. Isaako’s try scoring feats continued in their Round 23 clash as he scored a hat-trick in a narrow 30-28 loss. Marzhew was among the tryscorers for the Knights in that game but has recorded just the one try thus far in 2024. There were 56+ total points in both encounters but each team will be missing their primary option at fullback for this one (Ponga and Tabuai-Fidow).
Stats That Matter:
When the Dolphins get on a roll, they are extremely difficult to contain. They have scored 30+ unanswered points on three occasions already this season which is simply astonishing. That includes a 38-0 run over the Dragons, five consecutive converted tries against the Titans after trailing 10-0 inside the opening 15 minutes, and a streak of 40 unanswered points in the win over the Eels last week. The Dolphins are 3-0 both straight up and at the line in their last 3 as a home favourite while the Knights have been victorious in only 1 of their last 7 as a road underdog.
Prediction:
The Dolphins are a questionable 2-6 in their last 8 games following a win but with Ponga out, the Knights have lost their rudder, engine and propeller. The Knights offered no threat when he went off last week and his absence will limit the effectiveness and impact of Best, Marzhew, Gagai and Tuala. All four of the Bulldogs wingers and centres scored a try last week which is great news for Bostock in particular who has scored 7 tries in 6 games. The Dolphins will win and win well!
Bets:
Best: Dolphins -7.5 ($1.90)
Value: Same Game Multi: Dolphins -11.5, Bostock 2+ Tries ($6.00)
6:05pm, Sunday 28th April | GIO Stadium, Canberra
A thumping 42-6 win over the Cowboys last week allowed the Sharks to retain top spot on the NRL ladder and they will head to Canberra full of confidence. The same cannot be said about the Raiders who were no match for the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium and were dealt a severe blow with Jamal Fogarty sustaining a bicep injury that will keep him out of action for the better part of three months. Kaeo Weekes has been listed to wear the no.7 jersey and partner Strange as one of the most inexperienced halves combinations to take the field in Round 8.
Head To Head:
Leading into their Round 27 clash at the tail end of last season the Raiders had won 9 in a row in this series. The Sharks would end that streak with a 24-6 win over a depleted Raiders side but made it back-to-back wins with a 36-22 victory in Round 4 – less than a month ago. Mulitalo scored a double in that match and has registered 4 tries in his last 3 against the Green Machine. The Raiders have won their last 5 at home to the Sharks with the Over hitting in all five of those games.
Stats That Matter:
The Sharks are one of the best teams to back when installed as the betting elect. They have won 11 of their last 15 as the favourite which includes going 3-1 both straight up and at the line in their last 4 as a road fav. In comparison, the Raiders have caused an upset in only 3 of their last 11 as the underdog. The loss of Fogarty cannot be underestimated as his astute kicking game is a focal point in the Raiders playing style. They lead the NRL in kick metres per game and his absence will make it extremely difficult for them to gain territorial advantage.
Prediction:
With Fogarty out you can all but put a line through the Raiders. Ricky Stuart has shown that he can get the most out of the limited talent he has but the absence of Fogarty’s kicking game will put immense pressure on an inexperienced halves pairing. Moreover, they will need an increase in yardage from their forwards and outsider backs but completing at 85-90% may not be enough against a red-hot Sharks attack. The trio of Hynes, Iro and Mulitalo have been outstanding in recent weeks with Mulitalo having scored a double in each of his last three games. He has great success against the Raiders and has every chance of extending that streak.
Bets:
Best: Over 43.5 points ($1.85)
Value: Same Game Multi: Sharks -11.5, Mulitalo 2+ Tries ($5.50)