Paris Day 13 | Best Bets

Paris Day 13 | Best Bets

More silverware was added to the Kiwis’ bag on Day 12, as the women’s track cycling team pursuit squad won silver in a tense final against the USA, and there may be more success on the way at Saint Quentin en Yvelines Velodrome on Day 13.

Ellesse Andrews impressed in keirin qualifying and has a good chance of a podium finish, while fellow New Zealand cyclist Rebecca Petch is also in the hunt.

On the water, there are canoe sprint and sailing finals to look forward to, as well as a stack of other action around Paris, including the men’s 200m final. Brace yourself for another thrilling day.

Men’s Athletics: 200m Final
To Win Gold Or Silver — Kenny Bednarek ($2.10)

Friday, 4:30am
This is an event that looks to be dominated by the USA. Noah Lyles is a heavy favourite to elevate his name to the tier of greatness and complete the 100m-200m double, and who would doubt him after his dramatic win in the 100m final?

The three-time world champion over 200m silenced his doubters over 100m and given his domination of this event since 2021, he looks a near-certainty to be crowned the half-lap king. A bronze medallist in Tokyo, Lyles will have to overcome the two men who beat him in that race — Andre De Grasse and Kenny Bednarek — as well as a few other rapid contenders to claim gold in Paris.

Lyles owns the fastest time of the season, winning the USA trials in a time of 19.53 seconds after chasing down the second-place Bednarek, who finished with a personal best 19.59 seconds — the second-fastest time recorded this season.

Bednarek recorded the fastest time in qualifying, a 19.96 blitz, while fellow American Erriyon Knighton was narrowly behind him with 19.99, staking their claim as ones to watch, alongside the USA’s Courtney Lindsey and Botswana’s Letsile Tebogo who both posted 19.71 in April.

2020 gold medallist De Grasse has looked out of sorts in 2024 and failed to qualify for the final, while Tebogo posted the fastest semifinal time of 19.96, closely followed by Bednarek’s 20.00.

Lyles looks unstoppable over this distance in his current form, but presents little value at $1.16. Instead, I am looking at “Kung Fu” Kenny Bednarek to win gold or silver. His performance at the USA trials pushed Lyles and his run in the qualification round on Tuesday indicated that he’s feeling very sharp. A run at his best will see him finish in the top two.

110m Hurdles Final
To Win A Medal — Freddie Crittenden ($3.60)

Friday, 4:30am
Another track event where the USA claim ownership of the favourite is in the men’s 110m hurdles. The overwhelming favourite is superstar Grant Holloway, who has won the last three world championships and looks to be in near-career-best form heading to Paris.

Clocking his second-fastest time ever (12.86 seconds) in winning the USA trials in June, Holloway notched up the fastest time in the world this season with that run and it will take a miraculous effort from another runner in the field to top the man from Chesapeake, Virginia.

Freddie Crittenden was the man who finished next behind Holloway in the final of the USA trials, clocking 12.93 — the third-fastest time recorded this season — for his first run of the year under the 13-second mark. That puts him in good stead to medal on Friday morning, while the man who ran third, Daniel Roberts, asserted himself as the third-fastest man in this event in 2024 with a 12.96.

No other athlete has recorded a time below 13 seconds this season — Italy’s Lorenzo Ndele Simonelli is the closest with a 13.05 in June, and he’s failed to qualify for the final — indicating that we are set up for an all-USA podium. Japan’s Rachid Muratake has a 13.07 under his belt, while Spain’s Enrique Llopis clocked a 13.09 run in late June.

Tokyo gold medallist Hansle Parchment is well on the wrong side of 30 and age seems to be catching up to him when it comes to being a legitimate gold medal contender. The Jamaican’s season best is 13.19 seconds and unless he can drastically improve on that, he looks to be out of contention for the top two.

Compatriot Rasheed Broadbell brings credentials into the race, with a 12.94 second PB recorded just over a year ago, but his season best of 13.18 indicates that he’s a way off that form. This leaves the door open for the second- and third-ranked Americans, and we may well be heading for a USA 1-2-3.

Best: To Win A Medal — Freddie Crittenden ($3.60)
Next: To Win A Medal — Daniel Roberts ($2.60)

Women’s Athletics: Long Jump Final
To Win Gold — Tara Davis-Woodhall ($2.75)

Friday, 6:00am
The women’s long jump final promises to be one of the more entertaining field events in Paris. The big name heading into the final is the defending champion, Germany’s Malaika Mihambo. Injury threatened to derail her defence late last year but she’s bounced back strongly, culminating in a European championship win after a 7.22m jump just two months ago and she is the deserved favourite heading into Paris.

Joining Mihambo as the only other athlete in the field with a Diamond League win under their belt this season is Italy’s Larissa Iapichino. The winner of the Paris event just one month ago, Iapichino jumped 6.82m to gain a 4cm victory over Bulgaria’s Plamena Mitkova.

Despite Iapichino’s credentials, there are four women above her one the list of top jumps this season, including Mihambo. Making up the other three are a pair of Americans — Tara Davis-Woodhall and Jasmine Moore — as well as Mitkova, who recorded 6.97m just six weeks ago.

By far the most consistent on that list is Davis-Woodhall. The 25-year-old started 2024 with a bang, recording a personal best of 7.18m — the second-longest jump in the world this year — and has followed it up with the third (7.16m), fourth (7.14m) and fifth-longest (7.07m) jumps to put together a great CV in 2024.

That consistency lends itself well when it comes to these major events and owning the best qualifying distance of 6.90m, it would not shock me to see the American leave Paris with a slab of gold.

Women’s Track Cycling: Keirin Gold Medal Final
To Win A Medal — Ellesse Andrews ($1.98)

Friday, 5:01am
New Zealand’s Ellesse Andrews has already won a medal in Paris and Friday morning presents another chance for her to add to her tally. After claiming silver in the team sprint on Tuesday morning — and silver in the keirin in Tokyo — the Christchurch-born cyclist will be hungry for that elusive gold.

Having won the keirin at last year’s World Championships, and again at a Track Nations Cup race in April, Andrews has the form line to pull it off in Paris. Her qualifying time on Thursday morning of 10.979 seconds was the second-fastest behind Germany’s Emma Hinze, and the Kiwi looks to be in good shape.

Emma Finucane was one of the gold-winning team spring members from Great Britain, edging out Andrews and New Zealand, and she’ll want to offer a repeat dose on Friday morning.

Defending champion Shanne Braspennincx has since retired, while the bronze medallist from Tokyo, Canada’s Lauriane Genest, will be eyeing an improvement but looked shaky in qualifiers, only progressing to the quarterfinals via the repechage.

Finucane is the deserved favourite after what she has shown in 2024 and in Paris, but I fancy Andrews’ chances of recording a podium finish.

Men’s Basketball: France $2.65 v Germany $1.46
Total Points — Under 156.5 ($1.94)

Friday, 3:30am
France pulled off the upset of the quarterfinals, beating a stacked Canada team to make it to the Paris semifinals. The 82-73 victory was by far the best performance from Les Bleus so far in this tournament, as they righted a lot of their wrongs from group play. Perhaps the biggest change was French coach Vincent Collet deciding to bench Rudy Gobert, and while it’s unclear whether that will be the case against a less athletic Germany team on Friday morning, there were other factors of France’s game that also worked out. Guerschon Yabusele and Isaia Cordinier combined for 42 points in a hot shooting display, while Victor Wembanyama left his mark with 12 rebounds and five assists.

Germany also took care of business in their quarterfinal, but they had to mount a comeback to do so. Trailing by as many as 12 points in the first quarter, the Germans had a big second quarter to level the scores by halftime and proceeded to run away with the game to win 76-63. Franz Wagner continued his strong play, posting 18 points, while Dennis Schroder had another great playmaking game, with 13 points and eight assists. The win maintained the unbeaten run in Paris for this very well-rounded Germany team, but they have a difficult matchup on Friday morning. The size of France will cause the Germans issues offensively and I expect Franz Wagner to struggle more than what we have seen so far in this tournament. France, on the other hand, does not have a reliable source of offence and going up against a great defence, they will also find life hard on that end of the floor, making for a low-scoring game in this semifinal.

Best: Total Points — Under 156.5 ($1.94)
Value: Winning Margin — Germany 1-5 ($5.25)

Kiwis in Action

Women’s Golf

Lydia Ko
Stroke Play Round 2
Thursday, 8:10pm

Women’s Athletics

Maddi Wesche
Shot Put Qualification
Thursday, 8:25pm

Maia Ramsden
1500m Semifinal
Friday, 5:35am

Men’s Canoe Sprint

Kurtis Imrie, Hamish Legarth, Max Brown & Grant Clancy
K-4 500m Semifinal
Thursday, 9:50pm

Kurtis Imrie, Hamish Legarth, Max Brown & Grant Clancy
K-4 500m Final*

Thursday, 11:40pm

Max Brown & Grant Clancy
C-2 500m Final B
Thursday, 11:20pm

Men’s Athletics

James Preston
800m Repechage
Thursday, 10:00pm

Mixed Sailing

Erica Dawson & Micah Wilkinson
Nacra Medal Race
Thursday, 10:18pm

Men’s Sport Climbing

Julian David
Quarterfinal v USA
Thursday, 10:28pm

Julian David
Semifinal*
Thursday, 10:46pm

Julian David
Final*
Thursday, 10:55pm

Women’s Canoe Sprint

Olivia Brett, Tara Vaughan, Alicia Hoskin & Lisa Carrington
K-4 500m Final
Thursday, 11:40pm

Men’s Track Cycling

Aaron Gate
Omnium Scratch — Race 1
Friday, 3:00am

Aaron Gate
Omnium Tempo — Race 2
Friday, 3:38am

Aaron Gate
Omnium Elimination — Race 3
Friday, 4:25am

Aaron Gate
Omnium Points — Race 4
Friday, 5:27am

Women’s Track Cycling

Ellesse Andrews & Rebecca Petch
Keirin Quarterfinal
Friday, 3:18am

Ellesse Andrews & Rebecca Petch
Keirin Semifinal*
Friday, 4:15am

Ellesse Andrews & Rebecca Petch
Keirin Final*
Friday, 5:11am