The true nature of teams has revealed itself over the first three weeks leading to some confident plays for Week 4.
AFC North matches are typically hard-fought, low-scoring affairs and with both of these stuttering offenses on short rest we should see an exceptionally low-scoring game that will be no great feast for the senses. The Steelers are playing an offense where Aaron Rodgers just does not want to get hit while DeShaun Watson is working with a young receiving corps. Two of the three Pittsburgh games this season have gone under 33 while no Browns game has surpassed 44. The under is an outstanding 32-19-2 on Thursday Night Football when the total is 40 or fewer. The under has also landed in eight of DeShaun Watson’s last nine games. Harold Fannin is playing over 85% of snaps and his 18 targets ranks second on the team. He comes off scoring two touchdowns. Roman Wilson has at least three catches in every game this year – including when Michael Pittman returned to the rotation. Denzel Boston has at least 41 yards in each of his three games.
Tips
Best: Under 38.5 ($1.90)
Next: Under 3.5 Touchdowns ($2.35)
Touchdown: Harold Fannin ($12.50 First, $3.75 Anytime)
SGM: Harold Fannin TD/Roman Wilson Over 2.5 Receptions/Denzel Boston Over 37.5 Rec Yards ($12.75)
There has been no more disappointing team to start the season than the New England Patriots, who have opened the season 1-2 after a stunning Super Bowl run last season. Drake Maye has thrown six picks and just a single touchdown. The Pats are averaging just 12 points per game. The Patriots though are better than what we have seen and this is a prime bounceback spot for them. Underdogs off scoring six or fewer are 40-25-1 against the spread while teams off a loss of 20-plus cover at 54%. Mike Vrabel is 30-18-2 against the spread as an underdog of at least three while Drake Maye has covered eight of 10 division games. The Pats have won and covered five straight off a loss while the Bills have covered just five of 20 at home against the Pats. New England are the best play of the week. Mack Hollins is a big price for a player who has unquestionably been Drake Maye’s top target, leading the Patriots in snaps and targets and redzone touches. He is due some positive regression in regards scoring. Josh Allen has run for at least two touchdowns in every game this season. Romeo Doubbs has caught for at least 49 yards in all three games as a Patriot.
Tips
Best: New England +7 ($1.90)
Next: New England Win ($3.60)
Touchdown: Mack Hollins ($17 First, $3.75 Anytime)
SGM: Mack Hollins TD/Josh Allen TD/Romeo Doubs Over 40.5 Rec Yards ($12.79)
Two of the remaining five unbeaten teams meet in this AFC West clash that shapes as one of the top games of Week 4. The Chiefs go in heavily favoured on the road but after a decidedly unimpressive showing against the Dolphins the Raiders are looking value as a home underdog of note. When two unbeaten teams meet after Week 4 with a home underdog, that home dog is 13-3 against the spread. Home teams overall when two unbeaten teams meet after Week 4 are 25-17-1 against the spread. Patrick Mahomes has covered just two of his last nine and two of his last nine on the road in division games. The Raiders are not getting enough respect here. Brock Bowers returned from injury last week and became a true target suck. He took 14 of the 28 targets and turned it into 10 catches for 116 yards and a score. Travis Kelce has a touchdown in each of the last two games. He leads Kansas City in targets.
Tips
Best: Las Vegas +4.5 ($1.92)
Next: Las Vegas Win ($2.75)
Touchdown: Brock Bowers ($12 First, $2.90 Anytime)
SGM: Brock Bowers TD/Travis Kelce TD ($7.10)
The market is overrating Detroit more than nearly any other team at the moment. The Lions failed to cover their first two games while they snuck home by a ½ point against the Jets last week. Detroit have now covered just four of their last 15 games. Detroit have not covered their last six off a win. This is a great spot for the Panthers too. They have covered 12 straight off a loss while underdogs heading into a bye are 39-24-3 against the number. Carolina are a tremendous under-the–radar play. Jalen Coker has become the favourite target of Bryce Young. Coker has 22 targets – one off Tetairoa McMillan despite missing much of last week with injury – with two touchdowns. He leads all receivers in redzone targets. Chuba Hubbard is now the near fulltime back with Jonathon Brooks on IR. Hubbard had 23 touches last week. He has three touchdowns this season. Jahmyr Gibbs has 13 catches for 126 yards the last two weeks.
Tips
Best: Carolina +3.5 ($1.92)
Next: Carolina Win ($2.60)
Touchdown: Jalen Coker ($14 First, $2.90 Anytime)
SGM: Jalen Coker TD/Chuba Hubbard TD/Jahmyr Gibbs Over 35.5 Rec Yards ($10.61)
Atlanta completely dominated Green Bay last week to win their first game of 2026 but that win may say more about the Packers than the Falcons with the Saints looking excellent value at home against them this week. New Orleans have covered eight of their last nine with Tyler Shough nine of 12 as a starter. Michael Penix has not covered any of his four games against a division rival while the Falcons are 4-17-1 against the spread on the second game of a back to back road game. New Orleans are an outstanding bet. The Saints have been slow starters this season so there is value in Atlanta leading at halftime before the Saints stage a comeback. Juwan Johnson has developed a nice chemistry with Tyler Shough. He has 15 catches for 173 yards this year with three touchdowns. Noah Fant has topped 30 yards in two of his three outings this season. Drake London has topped 100 yards in six of his last seven games with Michael Penix at quarterback.
Tips
Best: New Orleans -2.5 ($1.87)
Next: Atlanta HT/New Orleans FT ($7.50)
Touchdown: Juwan Johnson ($14 First, $3.50 Anytime)
SGM: Juwan Johnson TD/Noah Fant 20+ Rec Yards/Drake London 100+ Rec Yards ($15.82)
