Mirra Andreeva broke through for her first major title at the French Open and we have now had at least one new major winner on the WTA Tour in 11 of the last 12 seasons. We have had 10 different women win Wimbledon in the last 10 years which makes recent form a high priority when looking to find the next champion. The bulk of the big names have underperformed since making the switch to grass from clay which includes Sabalenka, Gauff, Swiatek, Rybakina and Andreeva. Instead, we will focus on the list of players that have contested at least one final on grass leading into Wimbledon which includes Pegula, Noskova, Keys, Muchova and Navarro.
Linda Noskova ($26): A junior Grand Slam champion in 2021, we are finally starting to see the best of Noskova. Entered the final of Berlin against Pegula with a 1-5 record in finals but it did not stop her from winning a tight three set contest. Falls into a favourable section of the draw which is headlined by Rybakina and Anisimova who have both been struggling. Lost to Anisimova 6-4 in the deciding set against Anisimova last year but would back her to get revenge if they meet again. Has recorded wins over Pegula, Andreeva and Gauff all in the last year so the bright lights will not be an issue.
Madison Keys ($15): It has been a relatively quiet year for last year’s Australian Open champion but the shift to grass has seen her return to her best. Made the quarters in Berlin where she lost to Pegula 7-6 7-6 and took that for with her to Nottingham where she made the final. Has 10 career wins over top 10 players at Grand Slam level and has the tools to be successful on this surface – that being the perfect one-two punch (big serve followed by a heavy forehand).
Emma Navarro ($51): Has a 70% win rate at Wimbledon which is her highest across the four majors and will look to ride the momentum of a runner-up finish at the Nottingham Open. It didn’t end there as she then went to Bad Homburg and took town defending Wimbledon champion Iga Swiatek. A tough three set battle emptied the tank, and she fell to Ruse in the quarters but there is no play in back-to-back days at the majors. Can go deep into the second week.
Jessica Pegula ($13): Wins over Keys and Sabalenka in consecutive matches on any surface is a fair achievement. Pegula can almost be forgiven for losing to Noskova in the final, but the most important thing is that she brings for with her to Wimbledon where she has had a checkered past. Made the quarter finals in 2023 but an opening round loss to Cocciaretto last year cannot be ignored. Her previous results here are the only thing that prevented her from being one of the best bets.
Donna Vekic ($34): Winning form is the minimum requirement when considering a player ranked outside the top 20. That is exactly what she did at Queen’s Club beating Raducanu and the English crowd in the final. Grass is arguably her best surface having made 6 finals on it, including 3 of her last 4. That does not include her run to the semi finals here two years ago which makes her a good value bet.
Serena Williams ($41): Don’t fall into the trap of social media snippets and click bait. Serena may be the greatest female tennis player ever, but she is almost 45 years of age. As we saw in the last few years of her career, lateral movement will be her biggest issue. There is no double that she will serve big an hit winners off both wings but it is the defensive aspect of the game that becomes most difficult. A single win would be an excellent achievement.
Aryna Sabalenka ($5.00): Is yet to crack the code on grass. Has made the semi finals here in her last three appearances but an 0-3 record in those matches is a concern for the so-called tournament favourite. Lost 6-0 in the deciding set against Pegula in Berlin which also happened in her loss to Shnaider at the French Open. That is not something you would associate with the no.1 ranked player in the world.
Gauff ($13): This is the tournament is where Gauff became a household name, but she has lost in the opening round here in 2 of her last 3 appearances. A 3rd Round exit against Potapova at the French Open was unexpected and she lost her one and only match on grass to Badosa. Do not have her making it through to the second week.
Mirra Andreeva ($11): Put on an incredible show at the French Open where she barely dropped a game in the second week. Claimed her first Grand Slam title in style and has celebrated it since – as she should. Lost to Alexandrova in straight sets in her only competitive match since and finds herself in a section of the draw than includes Muchova, Osaka and Sabalenka. Not this time.
Iga Swiatek ($7.50): Grass was supposed to be her worst surface but that chanced last year when she stormed to the title beating Anisimova 6-0 6-0 in the final. Does not bring the same form to Wimbledon this time around and 9 double faults in a loss to Navarro suggests she is struggling with confidence. Happy to look elsewhere.
Elena Rybakina ($7.50): Is a former champion here but back-to-back losses against Boulter and Eala tell us that she is way off the pace. Inconsistency has been an issue for Rybakina throughout her career and she is virtually unbeatable when at her best but can lose to a player outside the top 50 just as easily. Not willing to risk her here.
Winner
Best: Noskova ($26)
Value: Keys ($15), Navarro ($51)
Quarter Betting
Quarter 1: Muchova ($7.50)
Quarter 2: Pegula ($3.75), Jovic ($6.00)
Quarter 3: Vekic ($17), Navarro ($17)
Quarter 4: Keys ($5.00), Noskova ($6.50)