The record for most 5 sets matches in a single year at the French Open is 33 back in 1992. Through the first four round there were 31 five set matches with the record in danger of being broken. The duo of Zverev and Mensik decided to buck the trend by winning their respective quarter final matches in straight sets. Jodar served for the opening set against Zverev but once the German broke back and took the opening set breaker he went on with the job in style. In the other match, Mensik never looked threatened – winning 83% of 1st serve points for the match. Both players benefited from the roof being closed as it allowed them to be more dominant on serve.
This was the case in the one and only prior meetings between them in Madrid at the start of the clay court swing. Despite battling on clay, both players won at least 80% of 1st serve points and at least half of their points behind the second serve. They combined for a total of 4 breaks of serve in a long three set contest and that trend should continue here. Zverev has won 92% of service games in this tournament and has won an impressive 44% of return points. Mensik is trending slightly behind that at 40% but his numbers are almost more impressive as he has defeated De Minaur, Rublev and Fonseca in consecutive matches. There has been at least one breaker in each of their last two matches and we could see multiple breakers here in a very tight match. Mensik looked very comfortable at net in his win over Fonseca – something Zverev has never been in his entire career. That could be the difference in this contest!
Best Bet: Over 37.5 games ($1.88)
Value: Set 1 Total Games – Over 12.5 games ($3.70)
Set Betting: Mensik 3-2 ($9.25)
Matteo Arnaldi v Flavio Cobolli
We have an all-Italian semi final despite top seed Jannik Sinner bowing out early. Cobolli came from a set down to beat Auger-Aliassime in four while Arnaldi came from a break down to take the opening set before Berrettini was forced to retire with injury. This contest has a very unusual dynamic as the pair are very close friends who train together regularly. It hasn’t prevented them from having enthralling battles in the past – including this tournament 12 months ago. Cobolli won that match in four sets and finished very strong with a 6-1 score to close out the match. That result helped him close the gap with Arnaldi holding a 3-2 edge in the H2H. Many of those matches have been on the Challenger Tour and only 1 of their 5 meetings have ended in straight sets.
All five of their previous battles on tour have been on clay which means this one will be a real tactical battle. Cobolli has the edge in power – especially off the forehand side. Despite having a losing record in the H2H, Cobolli has broken serve more frequently and has won 43% of return points compared to 40% for Arnaldi. Expecting him to be the aggressor in the baseline exchanges and his dominant win over Tien, a player also known for his defensive prowess, suggests that he will come out on top in this one. Cobolli in four sets.
Best Bet: Cobolli -4.5 ($1.87)
Value: Sets Cobolli 3-1 ($3.75)