Premier League Tips & Preview: Matchweek 9

Preview

Leeds suffered back-to-back league defeats for the first time this season when they failed to score in a 2-0 loss away to Burnley. The Hammers have lost by the exact same score (2-0) in their last two games with the most recent defeat at home to Brentford leaving them down in 19th spot on the EPL ladder and with the worst differential (-12) in the competition.

Stats That Matter

West Ham have collected a total of only 4 points so far this season and all 4 have somehow come on the road. They historically have a good record at Elland Road with 2 wins and a draw in their last two trips to the ground. Multiple goals scored in all three games has been the catalyst for the strong results but Leeds have shown us that they have every intention of staying up this season. Spurs are the only side to come away from Elland Road with maximum points thus far with The Championship winners posting a record of 2 wins and a draw from their last 4 games following a loss. Under 2.5 is 3-1 in those games and 3-0 in the Hammers last 3 leading into this contest.

Prediction

The Hammers have shown some improvement defensively in the last month but they continue to possess limited to no threat in attack. They have been held to nil in 5 of their 8 league games played and have conceded 2 or more on 6 occasions. Leeds were victorious in their only other game as a home favourite this season and I cannot see them being denied here. A single goal with be enough for a very valuable three points.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.80)
Value: Leeds WIN/Both Teams To Score – NO ($2.80)

Preview

Chelsea could be right on the heels of Arsenal at the top had it not been for the Chalobah red card when they led Brighton a month ago. They have since been on a tear with a single goal conceded in wins over Benfica (UCL), Liverpool and Nottingham Forest. Sunderland were 2-0 winners over Wolves last week and a single loss across their previous 6 league games suggests they will be hopeful of at least a point in this one.

Stats That Matter

Sunderland have accumulated the same number of points as Chelsea thus far (14) on the back of a significant improvement in their defence. Only Arsenal have conceded fewer goals than them this season and a tally of 5 clean sheets should not be ignored. That said, they will need to overcome a poor record in this matchup with Chelsea winning 4 of the last 5 meetings. That includes a 5-1 thrashing in the final game of last season which was played at this ground. Under 2.5 goals is 4-0 in the Saints last 4 away EPL matches and both teams to score has hit in only 2 of Sunderland’s 8 league fixtures this season.

Prediction

The Blues are on the short back-up following a midweek UCL fixture against Ajax, but that game was played at Stamford Bridge which means no additional travel. Sunderland’s defence commands respect but they have scored across their four previous away league games played in the 25/26 season. After watching Chelsea hold Liverpool to a single goal and dismantle Forest 3-0 on their own turf, we will be backing them to take care of business here.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – NO ($1.75)
Value: Chelsea WIN/Under 2.5 goals ($3.60)

Preview

An exquisite backheel goal from Woltemade should have been enough for Newcastle to claim a draw against Brighton but they could not contain Danny Welbeck whose brace was the difference between the two sides. A 3-0 win over Benfica in the Champions League will boost the Magpies’ confidence while Fulham find themselves in a difficult spot following a third consecutive loss.

Stats That Matter

Fulham were able to hold the Gunners to a single goal but were unable to find the back of the net in a 3-1 defeat at home. Defence has been their issue, and they have registered just two clean sheets in their last 19 away league games. Heading into last season Newcastle had posted 6 wins and 2 draws in the last 8 meetings in this series but Fulham turned the table by completing the season double (3-1 and 2-1). Over 2.5 goals has hit in 68% of Newcastle home games in the last year with 4+ total match goals in 3 of Fulham’s last 4 matches leading in. Fulham have taken maximum points in only 4 of their last 16 attempts as an away underdog while Newcastle have won 11 of their previous 15 as a home favourite.

Prediction

The Cottagers finished with 0 shots on target in the loss to Arsenal and that does not bode well for a trip to St James’ Park – regardless of their win at his ground last season. They have usually been strong in this spot but have lost 3 of their last 4 following a loss. Conceding multiple goals in each of their last three away games is concerning and we can’t exactly trust their attack to run riot here. Newcastle have 6 clean sheets in their last 11 league games and are gaining momentum!

Tips

Best Bet: Newcastle WIN ($1.62)
Value: Half/Full Time – Draw/Newcastle ($4.33)

Preview

It may not have been pretty, but Man Utd managed to beat Liverpool at Anfield 2-1 despite having only 36% possession. The win was significant as it marked the first time that the Red Devils won back-to-back games under Amorim. The result has seen them open as firm favourites to continue the streak, but Brighton should not be taken lightly as they are unbeaten in their last four league games and are coming off a 2-1 win over Newcastle. Danny Welbeck was the hero with a double, and the striker would love nothing more than to be on the scoresheet again here against his former club.

Stats That Matter

The Red Devils have won their last 3 league games at Old Trafford which has helped them climb into the top half of the standings – something we have not seen for some time. Despite the streak, they have still managed to win only 8 of their previous 19 home league matches and have registered 6 wins and 6 losses in their last 12 as a home favourite. Momentum has been a key feature of Brighton’s success with at least a point earned in 13 of their last 15 games following a win. Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of those games and Man Utd have maintained just the one clean sheet in 8 league games played this season.

Prediction

Beating Liverpool at Anfield is a huge result for Amorim more than anything else but Mbuemo’s goal in the second minute played a big part in that and there is a cap on the number of match winning headers that Harry Maguire can score. Brighton have claimed at least a point in 63% of away games in the last year and their recent record in this series is formidable. They have won 6 of their last 7 league clashes against Man Utd including victory in both meetings last season. The value bet of the round is a Brighton win.

Tips

Best Bet: Brighton Double Chance ($1.75)
Value: Brighton WIN/Over 2.5 goals ($4.40)

Preview

The plot thickens for the reigning champions who lost their third consecutive league game – all by a score of 2-1. Clearly unable to rely on their defence this season, it seems as though the goals will have to start flowing if they are to stay in touch with Arsenal. Brentford pose a genuine threat as they have won 2 of their last 3 with their only defeat in that stretch being a 1-0 loss to Man City.

Stats That Matter

Last week’s loss means that Liverpool have won only 1 of their last 5 following a loss with Over 2.5 goals hitting in all but one of those games. Despite this, there are plenty of positives for the Reds as they have won their last 5 Premier League battles against Brentford with a combined score of 12-1 across those games. Brentford have been a profitable play in this spot over the last year with 4 wins and 3 draws in their last 10 games as a home underdog. Over 2.5 goals has hit in 13 of Liverpool’s previous 19 away games with 4 or more goals in 50% of their league matches played in the last 12 months.

Prediction

Dating back to last season, both teams to score has hit in 11 of Liverpool’s last 13 league games. They are not the same side that were relentless in defence during the start of Arne Slot’s tenure, and an increasing number of teams have found a way to limit their effectiveness in attack. The introduction of several new moving parts in attack has also had an impact on their execution and there will also be a mental hurdle to overcome following a third straight loss. BTTS/Over 2.5 goals is a special!

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES/Over 2.5 goals ($1.78)
Value: Brentford Over 1.5 goals ($2.70)

Preview

The writing was on the wall for Ange Postecoglou, and he was sacked immediately after the 3-0 loss to Chelsea – only 39 days into his tenure as the manager of Nottingham Forest. Sean Dyche was named as his replacement and promises to bring a direct style of football and no nonsense approach. His impact will need to be immediate as Bournemouth extended their unbeaten run to 7 games with a 3-3 draw away to Crystal Palace.

Stats That Matter

This matchup has been a favourable one for The Cherries as they are unbeaten against Nottingham Forest in the top flight with 3 wins and 3 draws. They won the corresponding fixture last season 5-0 with Ouattara scoring a hat-trick. Semenyo scored the final goal of that contest and has been on fire this season with 6 goals and 3 assists. Bournemouth have tallied 14 goals in their last EPL clashes against Forest and the visitors’ struggles in defence has seen Over 2.5 goals hit in 67% of their away league games in the last year.

Prediction

Sean Dyche has a tough task on his hands as Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 EPL matches. In comparison and aside from their current run of 7 games without defeat, Bournemouth have scored 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 9 matches. Forest have a 25% win rate as the underdog in the last year compared to 65% when favoured. We will be trusting the numbers and not a false perception that teams overperform in their first game with a new manager.

Tips

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.70)
Value: Bournemouth Over 2.5 goals ($3.20)

Preview

Wolves remain dead last following a 2-0 loss away to Sunderland and despite being the only winless team in the EPL, they have been installed as firm favourites to register their first win of the season. Meanwhile, Burnley climbed out of the relegation zone following their second win of the season and are seeking to claim their first point away from home following 4 away losses to start their campaign.

Stats That Matter

With only 5 goals scored through 8 games, Wolves are the owners of the worst attack in the league. That could change this week as Burnley have conceded 13 goals in their 4 away games played this season – all losses. Over 2.5 goals is 4-0 in those games and they have managed to score at least once in all but one of those fixtures. Wolves are very effective in the role of the betting elect with 7 wins and a draw in their last 10 games as the betting favourite. For those interested in history, Burnley have lost only once to Wolves in their last 9 meetings in the top flight with Under 2.5 goals holding in 8 of their previous 10 Premier League battles.

Prediction

Think there are multiple value plays in this contest and don’t like the idea of taking the short quote about Wolves who are yet to win a game this season. Burnley may have lost their four away games so far this season, but they scored twice at Old Trafford and found the back of the net away to both Man City and Aston Villa. Like the visitors in the double chance market and to score multiple goals.

Tips

Best Bet: Burnley Double Chance ($1.80)
Value: Burnley Over 1.5 goals ($3.75)

Preview

Arsenal’s defence continues to be the factor separating them from the rest of the competition. Their 1-0 victory away to Fulham was their third consecutive victory in the league and they remain three points clear at the top. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace were staring down the barrel of back-to-back losses until Mateta hat-trick capped off with a 97th minute penalty helped them salvage a point. They cannot afford to fall behind here as the Gunners have become a defensive juggernaut.

Stats That Matter

The Gunners have 5 clean sheets through 8 league games and are yet to concede more than once in a Premier League game this season. They are undefeated at home this season (3 wins, 1 draw) with Man City the only road team to score at Emirates Stadium this season. Palace have been leaking goals of late with 7 goals allowed across their last 4 games with both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals hitting in each of those games. Arsenal are undefeated in the last 6 meetings (5 wins, 1 draw) with 4+ total match goals in the last four battles between them. Despite losing to Everton in their most recent away league fixture, Crystal Palace have claimed at least a point in 16 of their last 19 away games.

Prediction

Taking nothing away from Arsenal but only 3 of their last 8 wins in the league have been by a margin of 2 or more goals. They have been effective, but outside of their wins over Leeds and Nottingham Forest, have not been completely dominant. They rank 7th in shots on target this season with 32 while Palace are second in that department with 39. The key difference is that Arsenal are converting 41% of their shots on target into goals. It will be difficult to sustain those figures so beware a Crystal Palace side that has taken points in away games against all the big sides in the last year including a 2-2 draw in the corresponding fixture last season.

Tips

Best Bet: Crystal Palace +1.5 ($1.60)
Value: Draw ($4.40)

Preview

Aston Villa were winless through their first five games but have since reeled off three wins in a row including a 2-1 win away to Spurs last time out. Man City have also won their last three but rather than being stuck in the bottom half of the ladder, they are hot on the heels of league leaders Arsenal.

Stats That Matter

Home ground advantage has been a thing in this series with the home team collecting maximum points in each of the last five meetings. Aston Villa are undefeated in their last three games against City at Villa Park with 2 wins and a draw. Both teams to score has hit in 8 of the last 9 meetings overall with Over 2.5 goals going 9-3 in the last 12 clashes. City have been a net loser from a betting perspective in this spot with wins in only 7 of their last 16 as an away favourite. It is also worth mentioning that Aston Villa have lost just one league game at this ground in the last year with Over 2.5 goals hitting in 67% of those games.

Prediction

This is yet another example of one of the major contenders being overvalued on the road. Man City have been held to a single goal in each of their last 3 away games and have managed to score a total of only two goals across their last three visits to Villa Park. They should not be odds on here and after Villa delivered for us last week, we will be sticking with them here.

Tips

Best Bet: Aston Villa Double Chance ($1.91)
Value: Aston Villa WIN/Over 2.5 goals ($5.50)

Preview

A single win in their last 5 league games capped off with a 2-0 loss to Man City last week has seen Everton slide all the way down to 12th spot on the ladder. Spurs also went down on Matchday 8 in a 2-1 loss at home to Aston Villa and will be kicking themselves as a win would have catapulted them to second spot behind Arsenal. Each team took care of business at home last season, but this is their first meeting at Everton’s new Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Stats That Matter

Everton are yet to taste defeat in a league game at their new home ground with 2 wins and 2 draws to begin the season. They have lost only 3 of their last 10 following a loss with Under 2.5 goals holding in 70% of those games. That trend could change as it has been a case of goals galore in matches between these two sides in recent seasons. Over 2.5 goals is 4-0 in the last 4 clashes with the three most recent encounters all producing 4 or more total match goals. Half of Everton’s home games in the last year have ended in a draw providing a 145% profit on turnover.

Prediction

Spurs have registered 7 league wins away from home in the last year with 6 of those victories coming by a margin of 2+ goals. Cannot see them dominating this contest to that extent but am predicting both teams to get on the scoresheet. Everton have done a fantastic job turning their new stadium into a fortress and we will be backing them to maintain their unbeaten record at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Those wanting to take a stab in the correct score market can back a 2-2 draw.

Tips

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.91)
Value: Draw ($3.35)