This was the weaker half of the draw and it was blown open even further with seeded players Navarro, Haddad Maia, Kalinskaya, Mertens and Muchova all knocked out.
Add Osaka, Jabeur and Sakkari to that list which leaves Gauff and Andreeva to give us the semi final that we all want.
We successfully backed Over 17.5 games in Andreeva’s opening match and two breaks of serve from Busca helped get us over the line. The total has shifted to 19.5 for this one but the Over still looks very attractive. These two met at the US Open last year with Krueger causing an upset in a comfortable 6-1 6-4 win. Andreeva experienced severe struggles on serve in that match – winning only 2 of 16 second serve points and getting broken 6 times! Krueger broke serve 7 times in her opening round match and based on what we have seen should break 3-4 time at least here. Backing the Overs with confidence and will be having something small on Krueger for the win.
Value Bet: Krueger WIN ($6.00)
Twelve months ago Valentova won the Girl’s Singles here and after coming through to qualifiers to enter the main draw, she will take on one of the tournament favourites in Cori Gauff. Despite having won the juniors here, Valentova’s game will be better suited to hard courts. She hits relatively flat off both wings and likes to step in and take the ball early – particularly with the forehand. Her 2nd serve is currently a glaring weakness and it is an area which the top players are excellent at exposing. Valentova won fewer than 50% of 2nd serve points in her last two matches and will realistically struggle to win a third of those points against Gauff. That translates to multiple breaks of serve per set for Gauff and a comfortable win.
Pegula won 83% of 1st serve points in her win over Todoni but I cannot see her sustaining those figures in this match and beyond – if she progresses. Ann Li picked apart the 2nd serve of her first round opponent by winning 74% of 2nd serve return points. She will not be replicating that here but notably defeated Hailey Baptiste in her most recent tournament. The relevance of that here is that Baptiste has an aggressive style and weight of shot. Ann Li broke her serve 6 times in that match but we only need her to achieve half that number here to claim a set.
A lower back injury has kept the 2021 French Open champion out for most of the year. This is only her second tournament back and recovery from a lower back injury has been slower than expected. She won the points that mattered in a 7-6 6-3 win over Tatjana Maria in the 1st Round but does not seem to be moving freely just yet. That makes Kudermetova a genuine threat here. She has won multiple matches in her last two tournaments prior to this and holds a 3-2 advantage in the H2H against Krejcikova. The former champion will need 10+ matches before we see her start to get back to her best.
M. Andreeva v Krueger: Over 19.5 games ($1.91)
Garland v Putintseva: Sets Putintseva 2-0 ($1.85)
Kasatkina v Jeanjean: Jeanjean To Win A Set – YES ($2.20)
Ruse v Badosa: Badosa -4.5 ($1.73)
Parks v Jacquemot: Jacquemot WIN ($1.80)
Kalinina v Boisson: Kalinina WIN ($1.98)
Frech v Vondrousova: Over 21.5 games ($1.83)
Li v Pegula: Ann Li To Win A Set – YES ($2.15)
Azarenka v Kenin: Azarenka +2.5 ($2.05)
Baptiste v Hibino: Baptiste -4.5 ($1.73)
Montgomery v Bouzos Maneiro: Under 21.5 games ($1.83)
Krejcikova v Kudermetova: Kudermetova -3.5 ($1.85)
Cocciaretto v Alexandrova: Cocciaretto +4.5 ($2.05)
Bouzkova v Kartal: Over 21.5 games ($1.85)
Valentova v Gauff: Gauff -6.5 ($1.80)