Bay Hill & Lodge plays host this week to the time-honoured Arnold Palmer Invitational featuring a sensational field headed by Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele.
Key Stats/Skill Set Required
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- GIR
- Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
- Birdie or Better
- Proximity 200+ Yards
- Par 3: 200-225 Yards
Winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational requires a quality long approach game and an ability to drain putts on notoriously difficult greens.
Key Correlation Courses/Tournaments
- Open Championship
- 2022 PGA Championship (Southern Hills)
- 3M Open (TPC Twin Cities)
It is remarkable that it has been nearly three years since Justin Thomas last won on the PGA Tour but this looks a great tournament for him to break that drought. The 12-time Tour winner and two-time major victor has not won since claiming the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills and that course is a great guide for here. He ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 6th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and 6th in Birdie or Better. Finished Top 10 in five of his last seven starts.
Cracking iron player who does his best putting on Bermuda greens, Sam Burns is another nearing a win after a fair run of outs. He ranks 7th in GIR and his form on the correlation courses is strong with a T-12 in the 2024 3M Open and T-20 in the 2022 PGA Championship. Has eight Top 25 in his last 10 starts.
Six-time PGA Tour winner Tony Finau has been around the mark of late and is expected to go well again. He has finished Top 25 in 18 of his last 25 starts including a T-5 at the Genesis last time out. Ranks 11th in Birdie or Better. Form at the 3M Open is a guide with a win in 2022 and three more Top 12 finishes in the last five years.
Max Greyserman is in excellent form of late with Top 25 finishes in 10 of his last 15 starts. Finished 2nd at last year’s 3M Open. Love Bermuda greens so will appreciate a return to the East Coast. Ranks Top 15 in Birdie or Better.
Jacob Bridgeman is a quality putter who ranks 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Another who does his best work on Bermuda greens. Finished T-18 in the 3M Open last year. Was quality at PGA National last week.
Five Canadians tee it up this week and the best value among them is Nick Taylor. Taylor is flying at the moment, winning in Hawaii before three Top 25 finishes at his next four starts.
Tommy Fleetwood is playing some elite golf of late with four Top 6 finishes in his last seven starts. He has four Top 20 finishes in his last eight starts.