Riverton hosts an eight-race card on Sunday, with the track rated a Heavy9 and the rail in the true position. Conditions are fine on the day, which should see the track improve towards the better end of the Heavy range.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the eight races at the Riverton meeting on Sunday 1 November below:
Big Tuki (#6) came up just short when not beaten far into 3rd at Gore just over two weeks ago, making up good late ground from midfield. She maps to settle a touch closer to the speed here, where she should be able to follow Tik Tok Boom across from the wider draw. Her last start effort suggested getting out over a mile would suit, whilst the Heavy track shouldn’t bother her either. She looks the one to beat with a touch of luck early.
| 6. Big Tuki (7) 55.5kg63 | |||
| Went down by just 0.4 lengths when third at Gore over 1335m last time out. First try at this longer trip. Shapes as one of the key chances. | |||
Wise Dancer (#9) comes here off a 2nd at Timaru nearly six weeks ago, beaten under half a length, where she sat just off the early speed and got home strongly late, but did take a while to go through her gears. She maps to settle back of midfield with cover from the wider draw, which should see her given every opportunity to balance up down the outer. She only has to hold the form of her last start effort to be winning this.
| 9. Wise Dancer (8) 55kg6×2 | |||
| Nice return last start when runner-up at Phar Lap Racecourse over 1200m on September 23. Hard to beat. | |||
Swift Thinker (#8) is a locally trained filly who comes here off a 3rd at Ascot Park ten days ago, where she held her spot from the inside gate and fought on fairly without impressing. She looks suited getting back on her home track, where the stable boasts a very impressive strike rate. The Heavy track is a slight query, but she does get in well down in the weights carrying just 53.5kg after Kendra Bakker’s claim. She looks the one to beat in a field of a few unknowns.
| 8. Swift Thinker (7) 53kg3×3 | |||
| Nice return last start when third at Ascot Park over 1200m on October 22. Fitter and is a leading contender. | |||
Vamos (#2) is a locally trained gelding who was on the speed but weakened out of it when finishing well down the track at Riccarton a week ago, possibly just not handling the firmer footing on offer over 3000m that day. He gets back on Heavy footing in this, which looks far more ideal and he comes here rock hard fit. He maps to lead from the outside gate in this small field, where Kendra Bakker should be able to dictate terms as she pleases out in front, a very similar setup to what saw him winning two starts back at Gore. I’m happy to be with him at the price.
| 2. Vamos (5) 55.5kg94818 | |||
| Disappointed last start when eighth over 3000m at Riccarton Park from a wide gate. Enjoys this circuit where he has two wins and two placings from six starts. Expected to improve sharply. | |||
Sparky (#5) comes here off an 11th at Gore just over two weeks ago, where he led but weakened out late over 2000m. He maps to lead again from a middle barrier, and I expect Kendra Bakker will be able to dictate terms in front here, in a race that doesn’t look to have much pressure. He is suited by the likely improving nature of this Heavy track, with a surface closer to the better end of the Heavy range being ideal for him. He should get his chance to give a cheeky sight in front.
| 5. Sparky (5) 53.5kg09×00 | |||
| Unlikely to attract punters’ interest after being well beaten at big quotes at his last two outings. Happy to overlook again. | |||
Azilee Star (#6) comes here off a 3rd at Gore just over two weeks ago, beaten under a length, where she sustained a good run from the back of the field. She maps to settle midfield with cover this time from a better draw, where Donovan Cooper should be able to slot in shortly after the start. She will appreciate the Heavy track conditions underfoot here and can take some holding out if she’s within striking distance turning in. Looks the one to beat in an even field.
| 6. Azilee Star (4) 55.5kg70×63 | |||
| Better run last start when 0.7 lengths adrift in third over 1200m at Gore. Another bold run is expected. | |||
Bakers Dozen (#6) is a locally trained mare who heads here third-up for Kelly Shearing, last seen finishing 4th at Ascot Park, where she settled outside the leader but couldn’t make any impression in the straight. With those two runs under her belt, she looks suited getting out over 1400m at this assignment. She maps to settle handy to the speed from the inside gate, possibly tagging the likely leaders Vitebsk and Megalomaniac throughout. She should get her chance to run an improved race.
| 6. Bakers Dozen (1) 53.5kg18×04 | |||
| Strips fitter after two runs this campaign. Finished fourth last start over 1200m at Ascot Park, an improvement in the first-up performance. Sure to be a major player. | |||
Belardo Ace (#1) comes here second-up off a last start 8th at Ashburton, where he got a long way back and made up significant late ground without threatening – on a day where it was favourable to those up and in. Heshould have taken plenty of improvement out of the resuming run, whilst also looking better suited out over a mile here. He maps to settle at the tail of the field from the wide draw, off what looks a genuine early speed. He can be finishing off hard late out wide and looks a solid each way chance to close the card.
| 1. Belardo Ace (11) 59.5kg100×8 | |||
| Returned at long odds last start and finished 5.5 lengths adrift in eighth over 1400m at Ashburton. Looks a fair way off peak form so others are preferred. | |||