Melbourne Cup Tips 2026: Predictions & Best Bets

We have Melbourne Cup tips and predictions for the Group 1 3200m race at Flemington on Tuesday. It’s the biggest race on the calendar, and it’s going to be another great edition of the race that stops two nations.

Melbourne Cup odds are out, and we have our best bets for the big race.

Best Bet

#20 Point of Law @ $6.50

Point of Law’s win in the Geelong Cup is the best form guide for the Melbourne Cup. He sat on a hot tempo, which wasn’t ideal, but the way he kicked at the top of the straight was impressive.

We were taken by that effort, and although winning the Melbourne Cup is a different kettle of fish, he couldn’t have been more impressive. He looks every part of a Melbourne Cup winner, and he gets in with a favourable weight.

Barrier 9 with Ethan Brown riding is a positive. Brown is riding well this season, and that only adds to our confidence. As does the 53kg, and we love backing European colts, despite now being trained by Ciaron Maher.

The $6.50 is a fair price considering his latest win, and h

Flemington R7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup (G1)

Open Race time:

	20. Point Of Law (9) 53kg141×1 J: Ethan BrownT: Ciaron Maher	8.00WIN 3.20PLACE
Second-up. First-up after three months won by 0.5 len in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m defeating Small Fry carrying 55kg at $6. Previously second-up won by 1.3 len in a 3yo Mdn Sw at Newbury on May 15 over 2011m defeating Hatteen with 60.5kg at $1.60. Impossible to knock and looks the one again. Huge win at local debut in fast time, lightly raced and if he brings that form he’ll go close again.

Odds are subject to fluctuation. For current odds on all of our live racing markets, please visit www.tab.co.nz/racing. Data retrieved: 03/11/2026 03:47:10 PM (Pacific/Auckland)

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Next Best

#2 Trustyourinstinct @ $7.50

There has been a solid betting move for Trustyourinstinct, who firmed to $7. That’s on the basis of good international form, which should be one of the best form for the 2026 Melbourne Cup.

The Joseph O’Brien-trained gelding is a nine-time winner, so he knows how to get the job done, and it was his recent fourth that has punters feeling confident. He ran fourth behind Scandinavia, who is one of the best stayers in the world.

The betting move was also because of James McDonald. He won the Derby on Saturday, and he’s looking to add to his Group 1 tally on Tuesday. We expect him to ride well from barrier 18 and put his horse into the race.

Flemington R7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup (G1)

Open Race time:

	2. Trustyourinstinct (18) 57kg21214 J: James McDonaldT: Joseph O’brien	10.00WIN 3.50PLACE
Comes off a 51 day let-up. Last start 4th of 7 in the G1 Irish St Leger Stakes at Curragh on September 13 over 2816m, 4.5 len behind Scandinavia carrying 61.5kg at $7.50. Before that won by 0.8 len in the G2 Curragh Cup on July 19 over 2816m defeating Happy Pharoah carrying 62kg at $7.50. Brings a lovely profile and strong international form, and the man in the saddle goes okay too.

Odds are subject to fluctuation. For current odds on all of our live racing markets, please visit www.tab.co.nz/racing. Data retrieved: 03/11/2026 03:47:10 PM (Pacific/Auckland)

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Best Roughie

#10 Goodie Two Shoes @ $26.00

Running second in the Melbourne Cup last year was Goodie Two Shoes, who could repeat that effort this year.

The eight-year-old mare is another runner from the O’Brien stable, who has a strong charge in this year’s Melbourne Cup, and she has every chance of finishing in the money again at nice odds.

She scored a win two starts back at Goodwood, and although she didn’t fire last time out at Leopardstown, the race wasn’t run to suit. She’ll be better for the fitness, and her record over 3200m is good.

The $26 odds are worth including to boost payouts for a quality European stayer.

Flemington R7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup (G1)

Open Race time:

	10. Goodie Two Shoes (19) 55kgx8210 J: Wayne LordanT: Joseph O’brien	23.00WIN 6.50PLACE
Returns from a 52-day let-up. Most recently ran last of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 9 len behind Arabian Crown with 62kg at $34. The run before that ran on strongly from last on the turn and won by a nose in the G2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood on August 1 over 2816m defeating Santorini Star carrying 61kg at $9. Ran very well in this last year, more weight now, place probably best again.

Odds are subject to fluctuation. For current odds on all of our live racing markets, please visit www.tab.co.nz/racing. Data retrieved: 03/11/2026 03:47:10 PM (Pacific/Auckland)

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Same Race Multi

Punters get value odds with our Melbourne Cup SRM, which includes our three selected runners.

We have Point of Law Top 2, Trustyourinstinct Top 4, and Goodie Two Shoes Top 6, which pays $41.00 for our three-runner SRM.

Punters get big odds for a Melbourne Cup same race multi, and we’re loving the $41 odds. All three runners have a good chance to finish in the money, and the odds are generous.

Flemington R7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup (G1)

Open Race time:

	2. Trustyourinstinct (18) 57kg21214 J: James McDonaldT: Joseph O’brien	10.00WIN 3.50PLACE
Comes off a 51 day let-up. Last start 4th of 7 in the G1 Irish St Leger Stakes at Curragh on September 13 over 2816m, 4.5 len behind Scandinavia carrying 61.5kg at $7.50. Before that won by 0.8 len in the G2 Curragh Cup on July 19 over 2816m defeating Happy Pharoah carrying 62kg at $7.50. Brings a lovely profile and strong international form, and the man in the saddle goes okay too.
	10. Goodie Two Shoes (19) 55kgx8210 J: Wayne LordanT: Joseph O’brien	23.00WIN 6.50PLACE
Returns from a 52-day let-up. Most recently ran last of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 9 len behind Arabian Crown with 62kg at $34. The run before that ran on strongly from last on the turn and won by a nose in the G2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood on August 1 over 2816m defeating Santorini Star carrying 61kg at $9. Ran very well in this last year, more weight now, place probably best again.
	20. Point Of Law (9) 53kg141×1 J: Ethan BrownT: Ciaron Maher	8.00WIN 3.20PLACE
Second-up. First-up after three months won by 0.5 len in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m defeating Small Fry carrying 55kg at $6. Previously second-up won by 1.3 len in a 3yo Mdn Sw at Newbury on May 15 over 2011m defeating Hatteen with 60.5kg at $1.60. Impossible to knock and looks the one again. Huge win at local debut in fast time, lightly raced and if he brings that form he’ll go close again.

Odds are subject to fluctuation. For current odds on all of our live racing markets, please visit www.tab.co.nz/racing. Data retrieved: 03/11/2026 03:47:10 PM (Pacific/Auckland)

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Melbourne Cup 2026 Odds

Flemington R7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup (G1)

Open Race time:

	1. Sons And Lovers (3) 57.5kg44512 J: Dylan Browne McmonagleT: Joseph O’brien	23.00WIN 7.00PLACE
Comes here off a 52-day let-up. Last start 2nd of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 2.25 len behind Arabian Crown with 63.5kg at $15. The race before that won by a head in the G2 Prix Maurice De Nieuil at Longchamp on July 14 over 2800m defeating Parachutiste carrying 59kg at $2.60. Top weight but brings classy international form and should go very well.
	2. Trustyourinstinct (18) 57kg21214 J: James McDonaldT: Joseph O’brien	10.00WIN 3.50PLACE
Comes off a 51 day let-up. Last start 4th of 7 in the G1 Irish St Leger Stakes at Curragh on September 13 over 2816m, 4.5 len behind Scandinavia carrying 61.5kg at $7.50. Before that won by 0.8 len in the G2 Curragh Cup on July 19 over 2816m defeating Happy Pharoah carrying 62kg at $7.50. Brings a lovely profile and strong international form, and the man in the saddle goes okay too.
	3. Knight’s Choice (2) 56.5kgx0930 J: Robbie DolanT: J G Symons & S Laxon	41.00WIN 9.50PLACE
Most recently eased back early on 14th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 10 len behind Kingswood carrying 55kg at $31. Before that ran on from midfield; 3rd of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, head behind Pinhole with 56kg at $7. Shock winner of 2024 Cup with more weight this time, hard to see him repeating the dose.
	4. Middle Earth (1) 56.5kg87898 J: Mark ZahraT: Ciaron Maher	17.00WIN 5.50PLACE
At the latest run eased back early on 8th of 12 in the G1 Ws Cox Plate at this track on October 24 over 2040m, 7 len behind Cosmic Crusader carrying 59kg at $71. The race before that 9th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 5.5 len behind Kingswood carrying 55kg at $61. Ticking along as well as he was last year and has claims.
	5. Vauban (22) 56.5kg133×9 J: Jordan ChildsT: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott	41.00WIN 9.50PLACE
Second-up. First-up after five months 9th of 13 in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m, 6 len behind Point Of Law carrying 60.5kg at $19. Previously second-up 3rd of 8 in the G1 He Tancred Stakes at Rosehill on March 28 over 2400m, slow going 5 len behind Aeliana carrying 59kg at $7. Fourth crack at the Cup, only second up here and 3200m remains a worry.
	6. Enfjaar (8) 56kg381×3 J: Ray DawsonT: Roger Varian	26.00WIN 8.00PLACE
Second run back. First-up after three months held ground to the line 3rd of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 1.0 len behind Kingswood carrying 54.5kg at $12. Previously second-up 8th of 16 in the LR Wolferton Stakes at Ascot on June 16 over 2011m, 5 len behind Map Of Stars carrying 59.5kg at $13. Very game first up, not sure he wants 3200m though.
	7. Royal Supremacy (21) 56kg1×910 J: Ben AllenT: Ciaron Maher	51.00WIN 11.00PLACE
Last start 15th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 17 len behind Kingswood with 54.5kg at $13. The run before that won by 0.8 len in the G3 Jra Cup at Caulfield on September 27 over 2000m defeating Future History with 60kg at $4.80. Had some excuses last time but 3200m is a worry.
	8. Wine Dark Sea (23) 56kg151×0 J: Damian LaneT: Harry Charlton	41.00WIN 9.50PLACE
Second run back. First-up after two months raced on the pace before fading 11th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 6 len behind Kingswood with 54.5kg at $8. Previously second-up won by 13 len in a Rating 85 at Carlisle on June 24 over 2212m defeating Golden West carrying 64kg at $1.80. Up in trip should suit but needed to see more last time.
	10. Goodie Two Shoes (19) 55kgx8210 J: Wayne LordanT: Joseph O’brien	23.00WIN 6.50PLACE
Returns from a 52-day let-up. Most recently ran last of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 9 len behind Arabian Crown with 62kg at $34. The run before that ran on strongly from last on the turn and won by a nose in the G2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood on August 1 over 2816m defeating Santorini Star carrying 61kg at $9. Ran very well in this last year, more weight now, place probably best again.
	11. Juja Kibo (14) 55kgx3211 J: Sam ClippertonT: Ciaron Maher	12.00WIN 4.40PLACE
Chasing a hat-trick. At the latest run won by 0.5 len in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m defeating Kings Valley carrying 58kg at $7.50. Before that ran on from midfield and won by 1.75 len in a G2 The Metropolitan at Randwick on October 3 over 2400m in soft going defeating Aethelwulf with 56.5kg at $5.50. Flying off moderate tempos, if he can convert that to two miles he’ll run well.
	12. Hopewell Rock (15) 54.5kg3612x J: Zac LloydT: George Boughey	6.50WIN 2.90PLACE
Back from a spell. Finished off last preparation second of 22 at York Ebor Handicap August 22 over 2816m, a head behind Daiquiri Bay with 60.5kg at $7.50. Previously first up; third of 8 at Newmarket (Rowley) May 2 over 2414m, 1.75 len behind Daiquiri Bay carrying 61kg at $5.50. Progressive stayer with the right form lines, looks a strong winning chance.
	13. Onesmoothoperator (13) 54.5kg9×090 J: Declan BatesT: Tim Fitzsimmons	51.00WIN 12.00PLACE
At the latest run 11th of 13 in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m, 9 len behind Point Of Law carrying 57kg at $21. Before that got back early 9th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 5.5 len behind Pinhole with 58kg at $26. Not going nearly well enough.
	14. Soul Of Spain (5) 54.5kg68378 J: Tommy BerryT: Chris Waller	20.00WIN 6.50PLACE
At the latest run 8th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 4.5 len behind Kingswood carrying 53kg at $61. The start before that 7th of 9 in a G2 The Metropolitan at Randwick on October 3 over 2400m, on a slow track; 6 len behind Juja Kibo with 58.5kg at $7.50. Had some excuses latest but this looks too tough.
	15. Zahrann (11) 54.5kgx4106 J: Ben MelhamT: Ciaron Maher	35.00WIN 9.50PLACE
Last start 6th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 4 len behind Kingswood with 53kg at $7.50. Before that 11th of 13 in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at this track on October 3 over 2000m, on rain affected going; 18 len behind Cosmic Crusader carrying 56.5kg at $12. Worked home quite well last time but the 3200m is an unknown.
	16. So You Are (7) 54kg21111 J: Rachel KingT: Bjorn Baker	10.00WIN 3.80PLACE
On a four run winning streak. At the latest run favourite; won by 0.8 len in the G3 Bendigo Cup on October 28 over 2400m defeating Berkeley Square carrying 58.5kg at $3.60. Before that favourite; tracked the speed and boxed on steadily; won by 0.9 len in the G3 Atc St Leger Stakes at Randwick on October 17 over 2600m in soft going defeating Tempesti with 57.5kg at $3.30. Other form potentially stronger but he’s flying, not the worst.
	17. Future History (12) 53.5kgx3249 J: Jamie MelhamT: Gregory Hickman	46.00WIN 11.00PLACE
At the latest run 9th of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 3.5 len behind Juja Kibo with 57kg at $26. The start before that 4th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2 len behind Pinhole with 57kg at $7. Going along okay but this is too tough.
	18. James J Braddock (24) 53.5kg136×6 J: Craig WilliamsT: Joseph O’brien	23.00WIN 7.00PLACE
Second run back. Comes off a 52-day let-up. First-up after three months 6th of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 4 len behind Arabian Crown carrying 59kg at $13. Previously second-up won by a nose in the G3 Leopardstown Derby Trial on May 10 over 2011m defeating Pierre Bonnard with 59.5kg at $10. Epsom Derby placegetter but form since has been mixed, inclined to risk.
	19. Kizlyar (20) 53.5kg1x2x0 J: Beau MertensT: Joseph O’brien	46.00WIN 11.00PLACE
Second-up today. Last run raced on the speed throughout before fading 11th of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 4 len behind Juja Kibo with 56kg at $3.80. At only start last preparation 2nd in a small field in the G3 Irish St Leger Trial Stakes at Curragh on August 22 over 2816m, 4.5 len behind Queenstown with 61kg at $4.30. Went way too slow at Aus debut, could be a knockout hope up in trip.
	20. Point Of Law (9) 53kg141×1 J: Ethan BrownT: Ciaron Maher	8.00WIN 3.20PLACE
Second-up. First-up after three months won by 0.5 len in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m defeating Small Fry carrying 55kg at $6. Previously second-up won by 1.3 len in a 3yo Mdn Sw at Newbury on May 15 over 2011m defeating Hatteen with 60.5kg at $1.60. Impossible to knock and looks the one again. Huge win at local debut in fast time, lightly raced and if he brings that form he’ll go close again.
	21. Strictly Business (4) 53kg2×000 J: Dean YendallT: Thomas Carberry	51.00WIN 13.00PLACE
Most recently ran last of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 14 len behind Juja Kibo with 55kg at $81. The race before that ran second last of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 10 len behind Pinhole with 55.5kg at $71. Not going nearly well enough.
	22. Mr Monaco (16) 52.5kgx4013 J: Jabez JohnstoneT: Ciaron Maher	26.00WIN 7.50PLACE
Most recently ran on from midfield; 3rd of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 0.8 len behind Juja Kibo carrying 57.5kg at $16. The start before that raced right near the speed and boxed on; won by 1.3 len in a G3 The Bart Cummings at this track on October 3 over 2520m in the wet defeating Litzdeel carrying 54kg at $8. Past two have been good, should run well for wider exotics.
	23. Zakouma (10) 52kgx6650 J: William PikeT: Grahame Begg	26.00WIN 7.50PLACE
Most recently ran last of 11 in the G2 Crystal Mile at this track on October 24 over 1600m, 8 len behind Surfin’ Bird with 57.5kg at $26. The run before that 5th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2.5 len behind Pinhole carrying 57kg at $7. Ignore last week when sharply back in trip, he was building nicely prior.
	24. Shockletz (17) 51kg64162 J: Harry CoffeyT: Ciaron Maher	12.00WIN 4.40PLACE
At the latest run 2nd of 15 in the G3 Tesio Stakes at this track on October 24 over 2040m, 0.5 len behind Soverato with 58kg at $7.50. Before that 6th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2.75 len behind Pinhole with 55.5kg at $6. Past two have been excellent Cup trials and now up in trip with no weight, look out.
	9. Asterix (6)SCRATCHED:

Odds are subject to fluctuation. For current odds on all of our live racing markets, please visit www.tab.co.nz/racing. Data retrieved: 03/11/2026 03:47:10 PM (Pacific/Auckland)

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