Atlanta’s 2-0 start to the season was quickly brought back to a 2-2 record after losing both games of a home-and-home against Houston. The first matchup saw a 114-121 loss in Atlanta, before the teams headed to Texas and it was a similar result there, with Houston prevailing 110-120. It was another tight battle but Atlanta again struggle to find the answers in the fourth, with a dry spell turning the game from a 93-95 score into a 95-117 ball game and there was no way back into the fight from there. It was the team’s worst offensive performance of the season, with a lowly 105.8 offensive rating on the back of a terrible shooting night, in which the visitors recorded just a 48.5 eFG%. Dyson Daniels in particular struggled with his shot, going just 2/10 from the floor for a 25% TS%, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jalen Johnson also had below-par nights.
Miami’s early-season woes continued on Tuesday, losing to Dallas 109-113. It was a strong start for the hosts, as it looked like they were going to break out of their form slump, up 41-30 early in the second quarter, but the high didn’t last for long. Dallas came back to tie the game late in the half, setting up a dog fight in the second half, and it was Cooper Flagg who prevailed, inflicting more misery on Miami. Giannis Antetokounmpo tried his best, recording 29 points, 14 rebounds and 11 assists, and Davion Mitchell hit the 20-point mark again but the rest of the starting unit was poor. Bam Adebayo had just three points while Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins’ slow start to the season continued, combining for just 18 points and four rebounds.
I expect the running and gunning that we have seen from both Atlanta and Miami to continue on Thursday. Atlanta (third) and Miami (10th) have been among the fastest teams in the league in time to shot pace and that’s going to make for a frantic game at State Farm Arena.
Best
Over 241.5 ($1.90)
Indiana have been a real mixed bag to start their season and they head to Philadelphia for their first real test on Thursday. It’s been a soft schedule so far for Rick Carlisle’s squad, but they are just 2-2 after Tuesday’s 102-110 loss to Milwaukee. It was an unwanted result from the visitors, who were 3.5-point favourites, as a poor offensive night as the team put together a 99.0 offensive rating. There were large stretches of the game where Indiana were in control, building an 11-point lead late in the second quarter, but their offence didn’t make it out of the tunnel after halftime, as they scored just 41 points in the second half and shot a woeful 38.7% TS% and looked a little flat without Ivica Zubac (ankle) and Andrew Nembhard (neck). Tyrese Haliburton wasn’t to blame, finishing with 22 points and nine assists, while Pascal Siakam had 20 points and six dimes, but a lack of production from the bench, outside of Obi Toppin (14 points, six rebounds) saw Indy come up short.
Philadelphia had their first taste of defeat on Monday, losing to Detroit 93-106. The hosts were without Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe, but Detroit had their notable absentees too, with Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren sitting out with injury, but Philly couldn’t capitalise. It was an awful start from the hosts, falling behind 1-15 inside the first four minutes and they were never able to get into the lead from there, as Detroit raced away with the win in the fourth. A 96.9 offensive rating gave Philadelphia almost no chance, as they missed the versatile scoring of Embiid and the cutting and energy of Edgecombe. Tyrese Maxey remained a real force, recording 29 points and three steals, but LeBron James and Jaylen Brown failed to deliver the impact that they would have hoped, with 18 and 16 points respectively.
Zubac is out again for Indiana and, concerningly, Haliburton has appeared as questionable with hamstring soreness. Embiid and Edgecombe are back for the hosts, and that’s going to help their defence as much as anything and keep them towards the top of the league on that end. They’re 4th in defensive rating this season and Indy have yet to fire. With Haliburton questionable and Zubac out, I am picking a low total here.
Best
Under 236.5 ($1.90)
Dallas have been one of the funner watches in the league early on in the season and they came through with a big 113-109 triumph over Miami on Tuesday, as Cooper Flagg showed his class. The young star was a dominant force, scoring 12 of his 29 points in the fourth quarter to pull Dallas into the lead and notch up a big win. The sophomore forward finished with 29 points, six rebounds, 11 assists, five steals and three blocks in a huge performance on the road, while Kyrie Irving did his job in his first game back with 18 points and six dimes. PJ Washington added 20 points and nine boards, while Walter Clayton Jr has a strong showing in just his third game for Dallas, with 15 points and four dimes off the bench. It was an engaged defensive effort from the visitors, as they managed to slow down a Miami team that was looking to get out in transition a lot, and that helped them to a 106.9 defensive rating which was good enough to pick up a big road dub.
Oklahoma City did what they needed to do on Tuesday, beating Phoenix 125-114 in their first game after Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace’s season-ending injuries. Chet Holmgren (knee) was also out, meaning Kenrich Williams, Jared McCain and Ajay Mitchell joined the starting team, while rookies Bennett Stirtz, Josh Dix and Aday Mara all played big minutes off the bench. Of course, it was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who led the way with a very tidy 26 points, while Mitchell dropped a career-high 30 points and five assists in the starting role. McCain also contributed a smooth 18 points and Isaiah Hartenstein missed just one shot for his 15 poitns and 13 boards. Mara was also impressive, scoring 11 points along with 10 rebounds and two blocks, and he looks to be in for another big role on Thursday.
OKC have listed Holmgren out again, while Alex Caruso (ankle) also joins him on the sidelines for this game. Mitchell (ankle) is also questionable, meaning this could be a decimated OKC squad travelling to Dallas, but with SGA, they’re still in the box seat. It will, however, mean their offence takes another hit, and the same could go for Dallas, with Irving (knee) and Naji Marshall (illness) questionable. The under is 3-1 for both teams this season and it’s the way I am betting here.
Best
Under 229.5 ($1.90)