Cleveland picked up their first win of the season on Sunday, overcoming Brooklyn 125-121. In their home opener, Cleveland didn’t let their fans enjoy an easy watch, as a 22-point fourth quarter lead turned into just a 123-121 lead in the final minute, but a couple of Sam Merrill free throws and a defensive stop on the other end helped Kenny Atkinson’s side leave with a much-needed win. Three Cleveland players scored in the 20s, with Evan Mobley recording 20 points, 10 boards and three blocks, Jarrett Allen dropping 21 points and eight rebounds, and Donovan Mitchell posting 22 points and four assists. Cleveland’s bigs were also excellent defending the rim, allowing just a 29% success rate from Brooklyn, which ended up being a huge factor in the win. James Harden hit just one field goal bit finished on 12 points, eight rebounds and seven assists, while Peyton Watson was quiet again with 11 points and four assists. Jaylon Tyson had another solid showing off the bench, with 15 points and four assists, helping form a great shooting night for Cleveland, as the team finished with a 60.8% eFG%.
Minnesota’s hot start to the season continued on Monday, breezing past the previously-unbeaten Toronto in a 117-94 victory. Chris Finch’s side couldn’t have been more impressive, taking control of the game from the very beginning before a 35-15 third quarter made it a 90-62 score line and put the win way out of Toronto’s reach. It was another win led by Anthony Edwards, as the star guard had an efficient 26 points, while his right-hand man LaMelo Ball had 15 points and eight assists in just 17 minutes of play after battling with foul trouble. Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert and Jonathan Kuminga all contributed to a well-rounded effort from the starting unit, while Terrence Shannon and Ayo Dosunmu continued their good production off the bench to help Minnesota to another impressive win.
It was almost a blessing in disguise that Ball got into foul trouble on Monday, meaning he barely played on game one of Minnesota’s back-to-back. It’s hard to know if they will rest any other players, while Cleveland are coming into this game with a clean injury report. At home and with a day’s rest advantage, the market has Cleveland as the favourites but I am going to continue to side with Minnesota. Their defence has been outstanding this season, with Gobert continuing to show his dominance and McDaniels having taken another step forward. That’s going to hurt Mitchell and Harden and keep Cleveland’s offence relatively quiet, making this game Minnesota’s to lose.
Best
Minnesota +3.5 ($1.90)
Miami’s start to the season has been a shocker for their standards, with a 0-3 start, and Saturday’s 110-115 loss to Charlotte was the worst of the bunch. Their first-up defeats to Minnesota and Detroit were forgivable, coming against elite opposition, but Sunday’s loss to a Charlotte side without Kon Kneuppel and Coby White was not what they needed. Down 73-96 late in the third quarter, it looked like it was going to be a very ugly result for Erik Spoelstra’s men, but they found their way back into the game thanks to some inspired showings from Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson and Bobby Portis to get them back into the fight and to tie the game midway through the fourth. From there, though, Miami never took control, as Giannis Antetokounmpo was held back due to foul trouble and eventually fouled out, making for a rough loss. Mitchell was Miami’s best, with 22 points and 10 assists, and Bam Adebayo had 20 points, eight rebounds and four assists, but another poor display from Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins left Miami short.
Dallas were given a real scare on Saturday, as Cooper Flagg took an awkward fall onto his shoulder and then exited to the locker room, failing to return to the game. That came as part of a 121-105 win over Indiana, before falling to San Antonio 106-122 on Sunday. With Flagg and Kyrie Irving out for that game, Naji Marshall slotted into the starting lineup but it was rookie Sergio de Larrea who was the main beneficiary, dropping 21 points and four assists on 70% TS% in an excellent cameo off the bench. He was one of the few Dallas players capable of getting some offence going, with Marcus Sasser also adding 12 points and five assists off the bench, but the likes of Max Christie, Zaccharie Risascher and PJ Washington all struggled to get offence going and that resulted in a lowly 105.0 offensive rating, which meant another loss for this Dallas side.
Flagg is listed as questionable to make his return on Tuesday, while Miami head into this game with plenty of pressure to get their first win of the season. It almost surely has to come in this fixture, but it’s not going to be a cakewalk with Irving returning to the lineup. He’s going to keep Dallas somewhat competitive but even then I don’t expect the visitors’ offence to be all that effective. The same goes for Miami, whose offence has been rough in the early goings with the Bam-Giannis fit being clunky, and this sets us up for the under.
Best
Under 236.5 ($1.94)
Denver picked up their first win of the season on Sunday, beating New Orleans 141-135 in overtime scare. After an offensive stinker against Oklahoma City on Friday, in which they scored just 84 points and had an 89.4 offensive rating, their offence got back to what we expect to see from a Nikola Jokić-led team, as the Serbian poured in 35 points to help Denver to a 119.5 offensive rating, and every bit of that scoring was needed to get past the visitors who led by 20+ points in the second quarter and were there to play. The Joker added 15 rebounds and 10 assists for a triple-double and Jamal Murray was equally as important, with a good shooting night taking him to 42 points and six assists. Christian Braun picked his spots well with 15 points and eight rebounds and rookie Trevon Brazile had 17 points, nine boards and two blocks in an excellent showing.
Golden State are 0-3 after being well beaten by Phoenix on Sunday, 122-131. Steph Curry (rest), Brandin Podziemski (back) and Draymond Green (back) would have felt completely helpless as he watched on from the sidelines, and despite it being a decent shooting night from the team (54.4% eFG%) and producing a 119.6 offensive rating, their defence was hopeless. Steve Kerr was made to dig deep into his squad, with Graham Ike again starting and LJ Cryer playing 14 minutes off the bench. Both produced little on both ends of the floor, but even more established players like Georges Niang and De’Anthony Melton struggled to make an impact and Gui Santos left the game with an apparent knee injury to rub salt into the wound.
Curry, Green and Al Horford are all set to return to action on Tuesday, but I still have GS being far behind Denver, especially in the Mile High City. I have seen nothing from Golden State this season to get me excited, even when Curry has been in the mix, and I just don’t see how they produce enough points with this skeleton roster.
Best
Denver -7.5 ($1.87)