Tauranga hosts a nine-race card on Saturday, with the track rated a Soft5 and the rail in the true position. The forecast for the Bay Of Plenty is clear all through raceday, therefore the track should remain in good order throughout.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the nine races at the Tauranga meeting on Saturday 31 October below:
Intan (#6) comes here off a narrow win at Taupo three weeks ago, where she sat handy on a genuine speed before taking over at the 400m and kicking on to score in Maiden company. She maps to settle handy to the speed again, possibly tagging the stablemate Admiral Vos throughout. Her maiden win rated very highly and has been backed up by Thunder In Motion winning impressively since. She can go on with her winning ways.
| 6. Intan (4) 55kg2Px1 |
Avanti (#12) is a 3yo Almanzor gelding on debut for Roger James and Robert Wellwood. He comes here with just the one trial under his belt from earlier this month, where he got back and worked home nicely late when asked for an effort. He maps to settle back in the field from a middle barrier, where I expect Masa Hashizume will be allowing him to find his feet early and looking to obtain some cover. Will likely be better for the run and eventually getting out over further, but a bold debut showing wouldn’t surprise.
| 12. Avanti (8) 56kg |
Genki (#1) resumes here for Lance O’Sullivan and Andrew Scott, last seen finishing well down the track in the Gr.1 NZ Derby at Ellerslie back in March. He has had two trials since to ready him for his return, which have been two quiet yet impressive hit-outs – not being asked to run a step in either. He maps to settle back of midfield with cover from the low draw under Warren Kennedy. I expect he’ll be better for the run and eventually getting out over further, but he finds the right sort of maiden to go close on resumption.
| 1. Genki (4) 58.5kg8630x |
Clew Bay (#12) comes here second-up off an 8th here just over two weeks ago, where she got back and looked a touch flat-footed when the sprint went on but closed off nicely very late. She should have taken plenty of improvement from that resuming run and now looks much better suited out over 1580m. She maps to settle midfield, where I expect Opie Bosson will look to float across from the wide draw in search of a spot with cover. She can run a much improved race here with a touch of luck early.
| 12. Clew Bay (11) 57kg247×8 |
Sweet But Psycho (#3) surged home late from back of midfield here at this course/distance just over two weeks ago but came up just short in 2nd, which seems to be the theme of her last handful of starts. She finally draws a favourable low draw, which should see her able to position a couple of pairs closer as a consequence. She looks to have this field covered on paper, and just needs to be in the clear and going through her gears early in the straight to be taking plenty of stopping.
| 3. Sweet But Psycho (2) 58kg22342 |
Free Bird (#10) sat handy to the speed and ran past them late to win well at Ellerslie a fortnight ago, scoring by 0.5L in R75 company. Now third-up, she looks ready to get out over 2100m with those two runs under her belt. She maps to settle handy to the speed again from a middle barrier, possibly tucking in just off the leaders early. Matt Cartwright takes the reins, and she looks suited down in the weights. A progressive staying mare who can handle the class rise and take some beating in this.
| 10. Free Bird (4) 54.5kg12×41 |
Sarti (#1) comes here third-up off a forgivable effort for 8th at Ellerslie six weeks ago, beaten around 3L, where he sat midfield on the fence but was held up for clear running in the straight. Michael McNab remains aboard, the blinkers now go on, and he looks suited remaining at 1300m. He maps to settle midfield with cover from his low draw, in a race with an even tempo engaged. He looks to have plenty of ability and just needs to put it together to be winning this. They won’t see which way he went if the right version of him shows up here.
| 1. Sarti (2) 59.5kg12×38 |
Sterling Express (#1) wasn’t beaten far in Gr.1 WFA company when 9th in the Howden Insurance Mile at Hastings five weeks ago, getting home fairly from a rearward position. He slides right back in class for this, but has to carry 60kg after Jack Taplin’s claim as a consequence. He maps to settle closer to the speed this time around, where he should get a good cart across from Jethro Tull early. He is possibly one of the more underrated gallopers going around and can bounce back to winning form here.
| 1. Sterling Express (3) 60kg2×309 |
La Prima Dama (#13) was last seen finishing 4th at Pukekohe back in March, beaten just over a length that day. She has had the one trial to prepare for this first-up run, where she led and held her rivals at bay under her own steam. She maps to settle handy to the speed, where I expect Masa Hashizume may look to follow Greenwich forward early and look to dictate from outside the leader. There doesn’t appear to be an abundance of pressure on paper, which could set up nicely for her to sprint off the top end in a fresh state.
| 13. La Prima Dama (3) 54.5kg1x14x |


