Northland did just enough to pick up an important bonus-point win in Invercargill last week to secure second place on the ladder. The 28-14 win over Southland in blustery conditions was far from the Taniwha’s tidiest performance of the season, requiring a couple of tries in the final 10 minutes to break the 14-14 deadlock and win the game, but the visitors will have taken pride in powering their way past the finish line. Their defence was also an impressive factor of their play, allowing just five Stags entries into their 22 despite the hosts having 61% possession and 57% territory, as their forwards defended staunchly in tight and repelled carry after carry from Southland. Their scrum and lineout mauls were also big weapons, capping off an impressive showing from the pack, which was again led by Simon Parker. In just his second NPC game of the season, Parker racked up 24 tackles at a 100% completion rate and won a few important turnovers, while James Mullan, Grady Forbes and Daniel Botha also rolled up their sleeves. In the backs, Sam Nock and Rivez Reihana were largely stable once more while James Ramm looked the most dangerous and Corey Evans scored a crucial late try.
Tasman hit their stride in the final two rounds of the season after their All Blacks and Leicester Fainga’anuku returned to the squad, following up a 45-26 win over Bay of Plenty with a 50-33 thumping of Waikato last week. It was another Kyren Taumoefolau masterclass, recording another four-try haul to end the regular season with 18 tries to his name to break a 42-year-old record and become the most prolific single-season try-scorer in NPC history. Three of his tries were very straightforward, but he showed his class to score his hattrick, busting through a couple of defenders to dot down in the corner, making it a 38-19 Mako lead midway through the second half. It was a relentless attacking performance from the Mako, making 14 line breaks to keep the Mooloos chasing the game. The accurate kicking of William Havili and Noah Hotham helped a lot, while Taumoefolau, Timoci Tavatavanawai, Cooper Robers, Macca Springer and Shannon Frizell all carried very well. Tasman had some wobbles at both the lineout at scrum, but they will largely be very satisfied to have finished with a bonus point win on the road.
With both teams’ All Blacks out of duty this week, it’s a return to the norm for the Taniwha. Parker is a big loss but Terrell Peita and Rob Rush return in the back row, while Brady Rush comes back into the team on the left wing at Nathan Salmon’s expense. Leicester Fainga’anuku, Frizell and Tavatavanawai are all out for Tasman, meaning Rory Scott and Cooper Roberts move from the bench to the starting team. Northland’s form slump is obviously of concern, but they are back to full strength with this lineup and the same can’t be said about Tasman, who have lost some serious firepower. The market is looking more at recent form than the squads here, and I have the Taniwha as favourites of seven points, making them a good bet at the 3.5-point line. Their pack will have the upper hand and with plenty of firepower in the backs, they’ll get the job done.
Best
Northland -3.5 ($1.90)
Value
Northland 1-12 ($2.70)
Try Scorer
James Mullan ($15 First, $2.25 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
James Mullan Try / Sam Nock Try / Macca Springer Try ($12.80)
North Harbour couldn’t end the regular season on a high, falling to a 21-38 loss to Bay of Plenty. A win would have seen Harbour finish at the top of the table but instead they’ve finished in fourth, thanks to their worst showing of the season. In good conditions in Tauranga, the stage was set for another rampant attacking display from Harbour but they were missing the finishing touches often, turning 13 entries into the Steamers’ 22 into just three tries. Conceding 13 penalties and 20 turnovers did them no favours, resulting in them having just 41% possession, and their set piece was unreliable to form a below par attacking display. After trailing just 14-17 at halftime, it was a disappointing second half that saw the game get away from the visitors, with Sam Tu’itupou’s yellow card early in the second half opening the floodgates. Despite his team’s attaching struggles, Rory Taylor was a standout, with a long-range try in one of his three line breaks, to go with a couple of turnovers. Motikai Murray was good at the breakdown and on defence, while Jack Lee topped the tackles chart with 21.
Taranaki blitzed their way to a 68-26 triumph over Wellington last Sunday to lift themselves up to a fifth-place finish. Granted that it came against the lowly Lions, it was a rampant attacking display by Jarrad Hoeata’s side, finishing the game with 10 tries and 15 line breaks. With Beauden Barrett joining the team at fullback and Josh Jacomb lining up again at first five-eighth, it was a potent Bulls attack with a slew of standouts. Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkins tore up the Lions from the right wing, Meihana Grindley continued his excellent form at centre and Logan Crowley was an absolute handful off the bench, helping the Bulls finish the game with a hiss and a roar.
There are a couple of big returns for Harbour this week, with Jed Melvin and Bryn Hall back in the starting lineup, but Motikai Murray is out and Kade Banks remains sidelined. For Taranaki, their All Blacks Scott and Beauden Barrett and Josh Jacomb depart, making way for Jayden Sa, Sam Clarke and Vereniki Tikoisolomone. It is important to note that the Bulls were rather shaky before their ABs came into action and, with them now out of the equation, I am surprised to see them as favourites on the roads. Harbour don’t have the big names or the experience of the Naki, but it’s hard to ignore how confident and efficient they have been this season. There is a lot of attacking firepower going head-to-head on Saturday and I expect Harbour to prevail in a thriller.
Best
North Harbour ($2.00)
Value
North Harbour 1-12 ($3.20)
Try Scorer
Rory Taylor ($12 First, $1.78 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Rory Taylor Try / Bradley Slater Try / Sam Tu’itupou Try ($12.85)
Otago got back to winning ways last week, defeating Auckland in a 45-42 thriller. It was a crucial win to keep the Razorbacks towards the top of the standings, finishing in third to at least secure a home quarterfinal, as Cameron Millar slotted a last-gasp penalty goal to win the game. Josh Whaanga was equally as much a hero, as he secured a breakdown penalty moments earlier to steal possession and get the hosts into Auckland territory, before Auckland’s defence was caught offside, leaving Millar to ice the game in style. It was a fitting finish to a dramatic, back-and-forth contest, as Otago ultimately came out as the more clinical, efficient side and deserved the win. Joseva Tamani was everywhere in the forwards, while Nic Souchon did his job admirably in what was a tidy performance. Whaanga and Jake Te Hiwi were again reliable in the midfield and Finn Hurley again proved to be a spark off the bench.
Hawke’s Bay crawled to the finish line of the regular season, losing their fourth consecutive game, and this loss would have been the one that hurt them most. With the chance to win the Ranfurly Shield and lock it away for the summer, the Magpies were nowhere to be seen — at least on the attacking end — against Counties Manukau, losing 7-12. Even with it being a rather ugly display, Hawke’s Bay had the chance to win it at the death, with a lineout deep in Steelers territory. They couldn’t win their own throw though, allowing Counties to boot the ball into touch to hold on for the win, and HB will be kicking themselves for how they performed in the first half. They went scoreless and were completely outplayed by the hosts, barely generating any scoring opportunites, and they were made to pay for that. Their 20 turnovers across the game and some issues at scrum time also made for a messy showing, despite Darby Lancaster and Cooper Flanders both impressing.
Hurley’s good form has been rewarded with a start at fullback in a rejigged backline, which sees Jona Nareki return at centre, Kieran McClea start at halfback and Sam Nemec-Vial start on the left wing. The first string forward pack also returns, featuring the likes of Lucas Casey and Henry Bell. It’s a more stable Magpies squad, with Harry Godfrey and Flanders both joining the starting team and Bailyn Sullivan coming back from rest, and they’re going to need all the firepower that they can get to overcome Otago on Saturday. Last year’s finalists have had their hiccups this season, including a 24-35 loss in Napier in Round 6, but in Dunedin and with a good chunk of their stars having had the week off, I am expecting a big showing from the Razorbacks. Hawke’s Bay were the darlings of the early season, but they have showed plenty of cracks in the last four weeks and Otago have the attacking and defensive skills to prevail well here.
Best
Otago -4.5 ($1.87)
Value
Otago 11-20 ($4.40)
Try Scorer
Finn Hurley ($15 First, $2.10 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Finn Hurley Try / Folau Fakatava Try / Lucas Casey Try ($14.08)
Canterbury finished on top of the table after a hard-fought 22-12 win against Manawatū in Round 10. Scoring four tries to secure the bonus point, the defending champions did just enough to secure home ground advantage across their playoff run, despite a rather nervous finish with 14 men on the field. It was a win built off their set piece dominance, as they often found stability through that part of their game, with flankers Dominic Gardiner and Corey Kellow having particularly industrious showings. Kurtis MacDonald was the biggest threat in the backs and Louie Chapman kicked and distributed well from halfback.
Waikato had a far-from-ideal preparation for the playoffs, losing to Tasman 33-50 at home. Their defence simply couldn’t hold off the barrage of carries from the Mako, who were coming at the from all angles and proved to be too much for the hosts. Waikato finished with just an 81% tackle completion and gave up eight tries in a rather ugly defensive display, and while the Mooloos did score five tries of their own, they’ll be concerned about their defence as they gear up to take on the defending champions. It wasn’t all doom and gloom, with Mitch Jacobson and Senita Lauaki rolling up their sleeves defensively and Waisake Salabiau having a couple of good plays, while Hamilton Burr showed off his smarts with a cheeky try to catch Tasman off-guard, but in all it was a disappointing showing from the hosts.
Canterbury have unsurprisingly brought out the big guns for this QF, with Sam Darry, Jamie Hannah, Brodie McAlister and Johnny McNicholl being some of the names returning to the team. Cortez Ratima returns to the ABs for Waikato, seeing Rui Farrant start at halfback, while Tepaea Cook-Savage comes back into the squad on the left wing. We saw Canterbury prevail over the Mooloos 36-14 in Hamilton just over one month ago and I am expecting a similar result on Sunday. Waikato have repeatedly come up short against elite opposition in the back half of the season, with losses to Otago, Canterbury, Northland and Tasman and they are simply not up to the elite standards of the defending champions. That will be reflected in the final score.
Best
Canterbury -13.5 ($1.90)
Value
Canterbury 21-30 ($4.50)
Try Scorer
Kurtis MacDonald ($13 First, $1.57 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Kurtis MacDonald Try / Dallas McLeod Try / Xavier Treacy Try ($12.97)