Ashburton hosts a nine-race card on Friday, with the track rated a Soft5 and the rail out 3m. Showers are forecast on the morning of raceday, therefore a downgrade or two of the track wouldn’t surprise.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the nine races at the Ashburton meeting on Friday 30 October below:
Golden Lining (#10) comes here off a 6th here less than two weeks ago, beaten just under 4L, where she was fairly one-paced to the line from a midfield position. She maps to settle a touch closer this time around from the inside gate, in a race that looks to have only an even tempo engaged. She finds herself in a fairly soft maiden staying field and should be thereabouts with natural improvement from the resuming run. She looks a solid each way chance.
| 10. Golden Lining (1) 56.5kg640×6 |
Nameless (#5) heads here third-up off a run I’m happy to put a line through at this track last start, having been unable to run on from back and wide, on a day where it was a clear advantage to be up and in. She finished well down the track that day, but now looks suited getting out over a mile with those two runs under her belt. She maps to settle closer to the speed this time from the inside gate, and Ashlee Strawbridge takes the reins, which looks a plus given her 2kg claim sees her carry just 54.5kg here. An improved showing is expected.
| 5. Nameless (1) 54.5kg56×46 |
Villasanti (#5) comes here off a 3rd here three weeks ago, beaten just half a length, where he worked home nicely from midfield against the pattern for the day. With that run under his belt, he looks suited stepping out over the mile for this second-up. He maps to settle just off the speed from the middle draw in this small field. He is a horse on the up and should take plenty of beating.
| 5. Villasanti (4)SCRATCHED: | |||
Noivern (#1) sat handy and fought on well in the straight when 3rd here last start, beaten just over 2L. He maps to settle handy to the speed again from a favourable low draw, where Hayley Hassman should have the option to lead or trail. It’s not an overly strong maiden, and he can break through for an overdue maiden win.
| 1. Noivern (3) 57.5kg42423 |
Ataahualuciddream (#1) comes here at just his second start, after working home nicely from midfield to run 2nd on debut at Timaru nearly four weeks ago, beaten just under a length. He should have taken good improvement from that debut experience and looks suited remaining at 1200m given he’s four weeks between runs. He maps to settle closer this time from the better draw here. He looks hard to beat.
| 1. Ataahualuciddream (5) 57.5kg2 |
Marokopa Falls (#1) made up good late ground from the back to finish 3rd at Timaru nearly four weeks ago. She maps to settle handy to the speed this time from the improved draw, which should see her given every chance. She should be nearing peak fitness coming here fourth-up, and looks suited taking on her own sex. I’m expecting she’ll take plenty of beating if she cops the weight.
| 1. Marokopa Falls (4) 59kg8×423 |
Suavetta (#13) sustained a good run from the back of the field here less than two weeks ago, coming up just short when beaten a nose into 3rd over 2200m in R60 company. While she rises in grade on paper, this field looks no stronger than what she met last start. She maps to settle midfield with cover this time from her middle draw, off what should be a genuine tempo. She should be finishing off as well as any late, and is the one they have to beat in an even field.
| 13. Suavetta (6) 55.5kg85553 |
Queen Of Sheba (#11) put in a huge first-up run when 4th at Timaru nearly four weeks ago, beaten under a length, where she sat just off the speed in a strongly run race and kept on nicely to the line considering she hadn’t raced for five months. She comes here second-up and should have taken plenty of improvement out of that resuming run, and now looks suited getting out over 1400m. She maps to settle handy to the speed from the inside gate, where she should be afforded every chance under Masa Hashizume. She looks very hard to beat with natural improvement.
| 11. Queen Of Sheba (1) 54kg250×4 |
Bellish Boy (#3) comes here off a big win by over 4L here three weeks ago, where he sat handy and surged away from his rivals late. The blinkers went on that day and they seemingly did the trick, as he found 3-4L improvement on his prior form. That effort rated well enough to suggest he could handle the class rise here without much improvement. The penny may have finally dropped, he can go on with it here.
| 3. Bellish Boy (4) 57.5kg4×491 |