The excitement of the Melbourne Cup Carnival gets underway at Flemington this Saturday, with Victoria Derby Day delivering a spectacular nine-race program featuring some of the finest thoroughbreds in Australia.
The $3 million Group Victoria Derby takes centre stage over 2500 metres, while the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes and Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes provide two more outstanding features on a card packed with quality racing.
Scroll down for Saturday’s Flemington tip sheet.
Chris Waller holds a strong hand in the Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington, but Unhinged chases a hat-trick and looks particularly well placed. Having found form around some quality horses this campaign, he should relish racing over a mile on the big Flemington track, and the booking of James McDonald further enhances his claims.
| 2. Unhinged (1) 57kgx4211 | |||
| Chasing a hat-trick. At the latest run was well back until straightening; raced back then made ground from the turn; won by 2 len in a Bm72 at Rosehill on October 14 over 1400m on a rain affected track defeating Kirribilli with 52kg at $6. The race before that won by 1.0 len in a Super Mdn-Sw at Illawarra Grange on October 1 over 1400m defeating Cloudy Scout carrying 56.5kg at $1.85. Looks one on the up and sets up beautifully for J-Mac. | |||
Regal Ambition hasn’t turned in a poor performance since debuting, and after returning to action to break her maiden at Sandown, she franked the performance by getting up again in Listed company. Having since finished third in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas, she drops substantially in class back into this contest, while the return to 1400m should also prove beneficial.
| 1. Regal Ambition (7) 57.5kg2×113 | |||
| At the latest run 3rd of 12 in the G1 Thousand Guineas at Caulfield on October 17 over 1600m, 2.25 len behind Saintly Dancer carrying 56kg at $3.70. The start before that favourite; won by 1.0 len in the LR Jim Moloney Stakes at Caulfield on September 27 over 1440m defeating Pretty Baby carrying 56kg at $5.50. Very good against pattern last time, clear ratings’ edge back to this level. | |||
While she is yet to contest a race beyond 1600m, De Armas was strong through the line to only just miss in the Group 1 Flight Stakes over a mile in Sydney before finishing on the placegetters’ heels in the Thousand Guineas last time out. That run looked to be one of a horse crying out for further, and given that she is by Ardrossan, 2000m and further looks perfect. In peak condition, she can stamp herself as a leading contender for next week’s Oaks.
| 3. De Armas (8) 56kg4×524 | |||
| Racing well recently. Last start 4th of 12 in the G1 Thousand Guineas at Caulfield on October 17 over 1600m, 3 len behind Saintly Dancer with 56kg at $8.50. The race before that sat on speed throughout when 2nd of 7 in the G1 Flight Stakes at Randwick on October 3 over 1600m, slow going long-neck behind Global Goal carrying 56kg at $12. Should be suited up in trip now, big chance. | |||
King Zephyr was fair without winning throughout a busy autumn and winter prep earlier this year, while he returned to action to finish on the placegetters’ heels, beaten only two and a half lengths in the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes over this route earlier this month. He’s been kept up to the mark with a trial, gets a rider chance with Ladbrokes Cox Plate winner William Pike climbing aboard, and he rates as one of the better each way prospects of the day, in my opinion.
| 12. King Zephyr (9)SCRATCHED: | |||
Pericles is yet to place in two runs back from a break, but after finishing midfield in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes first up, he was only two lengths behind Grafterburners in the Sydney Stakes at Randwick on The Everest Day. With further improvement, he gets out to a more suitable trip this week and should get his chance here at Flemington. Drawn well on the inside of this field, he’s another whom we can have something on each way.
| 1. Pericles (3)SCRATCHED: | |||
Satono Glow has always boasted above-average ability, but after returning to action for an eye-catching victory in the Cap D’Antibes here at Flemington in September, she went back up to Sydney to beat a highly fancied Paradoxium in the Roman Consul. Back to the straight and in peak condition, the Coolmore Stud Stakes represents a perfect Group 1 target for her.
| 13. Satono Glow (4) 55kg14×11 | |||
| Third-up today. First-up won by 0.5 len in the G3 Cap D’antibes Stakes at this track on September 12 over 1100m defeating Over Excited carrying 58.5kg at $7. Second run from a spell came from midfield and won by 1.3 len in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes at Rosehill on October 10 over 1200m defeating Steel Will with 54.5kg at $2.60. Profiles nicely. Big win latest and likes the straight, no knocks. | |||
He’s only made four appearances at the races since debuting, but True Rebel has enjoyed a meteoric rise to prominence and ran on impressively to win the Moonee Valley Vase here at Flemington last weekend. On the quick back up and out to a staying trip, he can deliver the Danny O’Brien yard another Group 1 crown.
| 3. True Rebel (15) 57kg3121 | |||
| Racing well recently. Last start favourite; came from midfield and won by 0.5 len in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase at this track on October 24 over 2040m defeating Skua carrying 57kg at $2.60. The run before that 2nd of 8 in a 3yo Bm70 at Caulfield on October 14 over 1600m, head behind Mister Whiskers carrying 58.5kg at $2.90. Good win last week albeit with all favours, can’t dismiss. | |||
Concord Connie stormed onto the scene in late autumn via a couple of dominant victories in metro company. While yet to strike in two runs back this time, there’s no doubt that she’s stripped fitter for both performances and gets out to the mile in peak condition this week. She takes a little weight from several key rivals, is unbeaten at Flemington and has drawn to find a nice prominent position in the run under Craig Williams.
| 10. Concord Connie (6) 56.5kg11×23 | |||
| Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Resuming came from midfield; 2nd of 7 in a Mares Bm78 at Mornington on September 26 over 1200m, on a slow track; nose behind Per Sempre carrying 59kg at $1.30. Second-up 3rd of 11 in the G2 Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield on October 17 over 1400m, 2.75 len behind Shadhavar carrying 55kg at $2.70. Things against in both runs and can improve albeit this is a fair bit harder. | |||
Bridal Waltz has been a strong and consistent performer for the Moody & Coleman yard since debuting and has placed in each of three runs back this time, all black type sprints at Caulfield. She’s missed placing only twice in six previous goes at Flemington, winning twice, and in peak order this week she looks well placed in something like this.
| 10. Bridal Waltz (3) 55kg2×223 | |||
| Racing well recently. Last start rolled along in front before being edged out 3rd of 11 in the G3 Northwood Plume Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 1200m, 1.75 len behind Point Barrow carrying 56kg at $2.20. The start before that gave a sight but was run down late 2nd of 10 in the G3 How Now Stakes at Caulfield on September 19 over 1200m, long-neck behind Point Barrow with 55kg at $1.85. Been costly this campaign but she’ll be hard to catch again. | |||
Best – Race 1 No. 2 Unhinged
Next Best – Race 3 No. 2 De Armas
Value – Race 4 No. 12 King Zephyr