The true nature of teams has revealed itself over the first three weeks leading to some confident plays for Week 4.
Tampa Bay are in the throes of an historic non-cover run with the Bucs failing to cover their last 13, something that has not happened in the Super Bowl era from one other team. Coach Todd Bowles is on the hotseat and this is not a good spot for him with the Bucs missing QB Baker Mayfield and Bowles 5-13 against the spread in primetime games. Dak Prescott has a great record against poor teams and is 14-6 against the spread against teams with a backup quarterback. The Cowboys should win and win big in a high-scoring affair with Dallas going over in 10 straight. The over is 30-11 in Dak Prescott home games. Ceedee Lamb has had a big season with receiving totals of 153, 112 and 189 yards the last three games. He also has four touchdowns. Javonte Williams has five rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown in six games.
Tips
Best: Dallas -8.5 ($1.90)
Next: Dallas -8.5/Over 47.5 ($3.40)
Touchdown: Ceedee Lamb ($6.25 First, $1.90 Anytime)
SGM: Ceedee Lamb TD/Javonte Williams TD/Ceedee Lamb 100+ Receiving Yards ($5.49)
Jacksonville kicks off back-to-back London games when playing a 2-2 Philadelphia that has not covered a single game this season. This is a great spot for the Eagles. When a bad offense plays a good defence the bad offense is 75-56 against the spread. The Jags are in a number of play-against spots too. Teams who won after being outgained by 100-plus yards like Jacksonville last week are 3-12 against the spread while non-conference favourites in the spot are 0-11-1 against the number. Road teams conceding 15 points per game or fewer cover at just 36.2%. Refereeing is also notable here: the Eagles are 4-0 against the spread under Ron Torbert while the Jags are 1-9-1 against the number. Darius Cooper has three touchdowns this season with two coming last week, including the first. He will again feature heavily if Devonta Smith is again sidelined. Chris Rodriguez is playing just 25% of snaps but gets nearly half the running back touches in the redzone so is excellent value.
Tips
Best: Philadelphia +7.5 ($1.88)
Next: Philadelphia Win ($3.75)
Touchdown: Darius Cooper ($23 First, $5 Anytime)
SGM: Darius Cooper TD/Chris Rodriguez TD ($20.54)
One of the highlights of the early slate is the unbeaten Minnesota on the road to a New Orleans side coming off their worst showing of the season when hammered at home by division rivals Atlanta. This is a great rebound spot for New Orleans with teams off a loss of 20-plus covering at 54%. Home underdogs against unbeaten teams cover at 61%. Teams off scoring 22 points or fewer per game off back-to-back wins are a horrid 13-41-3 against the spread. Tyler Shough is 9-4 against the spread as a starter while home teams under referee John Hussey are an outstanding 92-56-6 against the number. Expect points to be hard to come by with the under hitting in 11 of 13 Minnesota games and seven of 10 Kellen Moore games at home. Juwan Johnson has three touchdowns this year and has pulled down 14 catches in his last two games.
Tips
Best: New Orleans +2 ($1.91)
Next: New Orleans +2/Under 42 ($3.27)
Touchdown: Juwan Johnson ($16 First, $3.75 Anytime)
SGM: Under 42/Juwan Johnson TD ($9.75)
The return of Michael Penix has completely changed the fortunes of the Falcons with Atlanta scoring 35 and 45 points netting two wins since his return. He has completely opened up the offense, allowing the Falcons running game to go ballistic. With Lamar Jackson in doubt for the Ravens this is a nice spot for the Falcons. Baltimore have failed to cover seven straight off a win while Kevin Stefanski is 5-2 against the spread at home during primetime. Teams off a double digit win over a division rival are also 27-14-2 against the spread when favoured at home against a team from the opposite conference. Atlanta should run wild in this one. Jahan Dotson is finding his role in the Falcons offense as the deep threat opposite safety-magnet Drake London. He scored against the Saints last week. Bijan Robinson has scored doubles each of the last two weeks while the Falcons have eight rushing touchdowns in their last two games.
Tips
Best: Atlanta -3.5 ($1.90)
Next: First To 28 Atlanta ($3.35)
Touchdown: Jahan Dotson ($26 First, $6 Anytime)
SGM: Jahan Dotson TD/Bijan Robinson 2+ TDs ($18.02)
The highlight of Week 5 comes on Monday Night Football when the Rams host the Bills. Buffalo look a quality bet getting a field goal. Home favourites with a points differential of seven or fewer cover at just 38.8%. Josh Allen is 23-16-1 against the number as an outsider. The Rams are 3-9-1 against the spread off a win when trailing in the fourth quarter. Sean McVay is 0-4 against the spread when Scott Novak is officiating. Buffalo are very good value in this one. Khalil Shakir does not have a score this season but has six of the 14 redzone touches amongst receivers so is due positive regression. Puka Nacua had nine receptions after returning from injury while he had at least eight catches in five of his last seven last year. Kyren Williams has 21 catches in four games this season with 16 catches coming across the last two weeks.
Tips
Best: Buffalo +3 ($1.88)
Next: Buffalo Win ($2.30)
Touchdown: Khalil Shakir ($19 First, $3.50 Anytime)
SGM: Khalil Shakir TD/Puka Nacua 8+ Receptions/Kyren Williams 4+ Receptions ($14.93)
