If you’re not factoring in the referee, you’re missing an edge. Nick Tedeschi breaks down the key officiating trends that matter for this weekend’s Preliminary Finals.
Adam Gee
- The Roosters are 20-10 with a 15-15 over record
- The Knights are 4-7 with a 7-4 cover record
- Favourites of 6.5 or more cover at 54%
- Top 4 teams cover at 62%
- Top 4 teams against 5th or worse cover at 71%
- Teams off a win of 13+ cover at 56%
- The under is 16-11 in 2026
- The under hits at 54% when there is a favourite of 6.5 or more
- The under hits at 54% at Accor
- The last nine finals games refereed by Gee have reached 38 points
Adam Gee has been named to officiate his second Grand Final. Elite teams thrive under Gee against the market so the Roosters can be bet with complete confidence. He is naturally a huge under official so expect points to be hard to come by though finals games under his watch have been high scoring.
Ref Lean: Sydney Roosters -6.5 (Big), Under 42.5 (Small)
Belinda Sharpe
- The Sydney Roosters are 1-0 in 2026, winning 48-10
- The Sydney Roosters are 3-1 with a 1-3 cover record over the last two seasons
- Brisbane are 4-1 in 2026
- Brisbane are 6-1 with a 5-2 cover record over the last two seasons
- 8 of 13 games have reached 46 points this season
- 7 of 13 games have tallied 52 points this season
Brisbane have a tremendous record under Belinda Sharpe’s whistle including an upset win in last year’s Grand Final while the Sydney Roosters severely underachieve when she officiates.
Ref Lean: Brisbane +7.5 (Big)
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