Counties Manukau came agonisingly close to a come-from-behind win against Auckland last week, only to fall 33-43. It was a rollercoaster of a game at Eden Park, with Counties completely fading in the first half to concede three consecutive tries for a 7-19 halftime lead. It looked like those woes were going to continue into the second half, as the hosts’ lead expanded out to 12-33, but Counties Manukau then kicked into gear, with a couple of tries from Josh Gray, who showed some nice finishing, to make it a 26-33 game. The Steelers then levelled the game through Aporosa Vuniyayawa to set up a huge final eight minutes, but Counties were almost nowhere to be seen when it mattered most, with Auckland hoarding possession and scoring the game’s final 10 points to win the Battle of the Bombays. It’s fair to say that Counties didn’t deserve to win this game, as they were outplayed across much of the 80 minutes, but their ability to get back into the fight was impressive. Adam Morrison was steady at the back with his kicking game and made some incisive runs for Counties, while Alamanda Motuga was the standout of the forwards with a high defensive work rate and an early try.
It was another big win from Otago last week, as they surged past Tasman for a 57-33 win. There was some early drama, as Cameron Millar exited the game and failed his HIA, but Patrick Pellegrini proved to be a more-than-reliable back-up, helping Otago finish the half strongly with two late tries for a 28-19 lead. That was perhaps a fortunate score line for the hosts, but there was no denying that they were the better team in the second half, with Jona Nareki scoring a rather comical try moments after the break to give the hosts a clear buffer. Jake Te Hiwi and Riley Lucas then combined for an excellent try to give the hosts a 40-26 lead before Finn Hurley reminded everyone of his speed and class in his first game back for the season, blitzing down the right wing to put the cherry on top. Te Hiwi was one of the standouts for Otago, again forming a rock-solid partnership with Josh Whaanga in the midfield on both sides of the ball, while Lucas had his moments of brilliance with a try, try assist, nine tackles and a won turnover. Christian Lio-Willie, Lucas Casey and Henry Bell all stood out in what was a good performance from the forwards, continually getting Otago down the right end of the park.
There are a few big outs for Counties this week, including Gray and Ioane Moananu, while Jimmy Tupou and Cam Church return. Otago will bring Pellegrini and Hurley into the starting team, making for a very strong 23, and that spells trouble for the hosts. As 15.5-point favourites, I see value in Otago, with a margin of 20+ on the cards.
Best
Counties Manukau +15.5 ($1.90)
Value
Otago 21-30 ($4.00)
Try Scorer
Finn Hurley ($13 First, $1.88 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Finn Hurley Try / Kieran McClea Try / Cameron Church Try ($17.10)
Tasman came up short against Otago last week, losing 33-57. It ended up being a disappointing showing from the Mako, as they again produced another rather careless display of footy, and their defence did them no favours once again. It was game on in the first half, with Tasman leading for most of the 40 minutes with tries to Kyren Taumoefolau, Maloni Kunawave and Macca Springer, but a couple of late tries to the hosts gave Tasman a nine-point deficit at the half. They could never recover from there, as their defence and ball security continued to let them down. They ended the night with 20 turnovers and 10 penalties conceded, and allowed 15 Otago entries into the Mako’s 22 which eventually made them pay. Maloni Kunawave was excellent for the visitors, scoring a couple of tries and regularly beating defenders, but his performance under the high ball led to some issues. Rory Scott provided impact off the bench and Kyren Taumoefolau had his moments, but overall, this was a poor showing from the Mako.
Auckland were victorious in the Battle of the Bombays last week, prevailing 43-33, but it was a hairy ending to the game as Counties Manukau stormed back from a big deficit. It was essentially one-way traffic in the opening 50 minutes, as Auckland got out to a 26-7 lead, but the hosts let their feet off the gas to see Counties pull the game back to a 33-33 score line with less than 10 minutes to play. However, the hosts were composed and controlled from there, dominating possession and flow of the game, allowing Codemeru Vai to score and Rico Simpson to nail a penalty goal from halfway, seeing Auckland win the Battle of the Bombays. Simpson was one of the standouts for the victors, repeatedly carrying with real danger and showing good link-up play, including sending in Tevita Latu for a try. Xavier Tito-Harris was also a threat in the carry and Soane Vikena again led the defensive line with 21 tackles.
William Havili returns for Tasman in what is the only change to their starting tram, while Auckland have brought in Issak Fines-Leleiwasa and Nikolai Foliaki into the starting side off the bench. That puts the game in Tasman’s favour and I expect them to make this a relatively comfortable win come the end of 80 minutes. Their backs will have a field day against what has been a bad Auckland defence and I can’t see the Auckland pack or bench getting too much of a leg up.
Best
Tasman -9.5 ($1.85)
Value
Tasman 11-20 ($3.40)
Try Scorer
Kyren Taumoefolau ($9.00 First, $1.50 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Kyren Taumoefolau Try / Maloni Kunawave Try / Xavi Taele Try ($10.35)
Bay of Plenty made it back-to-back double-digit losses last week, catastrophically falling to Southland 12-43. Sunday’s defeat dropped BOP to a 3-4 record and now has them out of the top eight, which will be causing some panic in Tauranga, given that they would have had aspirations of at least a top four finish. They looked far, far away from being a semi-finals team in Invercargill, with ill discipline, disorganised defence, a lack of ball security all and a disastrous lineout all contributing to the Steamers’ struggles. Seuseu Naitoa Ah Kuoi and Rory Van Vugt both scored inside the opening 15 minutes to make it a solid start for BOP but that was all she wrote for the visitors, as their pack continued to get out-worked to see Southland record a huge win. The Steamers lost six of their lineout throws, had just 39% possession, conceded 13 penalties, gave up 18 turnovers and allowed 11 entries into their 22, all of which helping Southland rack up the pressure. Joe Johnston can hold his head high, completing 25 tackles and winning a turnover, but that’s where the positives end for BOP.
Hawke’s Bay had their first taste of defeat this season, losing to North Harbour 24-31 on Sunday. It was a shock loss for the Magpies, who entered the game as 15.5-point underdogs and started slowly to see Harbour take a 10-12 lead into the sheds. A second yellow card of the game made it a poor start to the second half for HB, but Geoff Cridge and Folau Fakatava went bang-bang to make it a 24-12 lead. The Magpies really struggled to continue their momentum from there though, despite Harbour being reduced to 14 players for the final five minutes of the game, as their attack looked unusually indecisive and wobbly. They couldn’t build up consecutive phases often enough to trouble North Harbour’s defence, with their 22 turnovers and 43% possession being a real issue. Fakatava was a regular source of energy and finished with three try assists and one try of his own, while Zarn Sullivan had some strong carries, but the team’s inaccuracy really let them down in this clash.
Lucas Cashmore comes back into the starting team for Bay of plenty in a reasonably steady 23, while Hawke’s Bay will be without Neria Fomai, who has been replaced by Nic Benn, with Darby Lancaster also starting on the left wing and Will Cole at fullback to form a new back three. It’s still an elite Hawke’s Bay team but I am not willing to declare this as another easy win for them. Yes, BOP have been poor in the last fortnight but there is a lot of class in this team and as 13.5-point underdogs at home, I am more than happy to side with the Steamers.
Best
Bay of Plenty +13.5 ($1.90)
Value
Hawke’s Bay 1-12 ($3.00)
Try Scorer
Folau Fakatava ($15 First, $2.02 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Folau Fakatava Try / Rory Van Vugt Try / Cooper Flanders Try ($12.69)
Waikato came up short in their Ranfurly Shield challenge last week, losing 17-34 in the far north. The final score makes it look like the Mooloos were at least in contention in this game, but that wasn’t really the case, scoring just three tries and gaining just six entries into Northland’s 22. There were some positives for the Mooloos, with their accuracy at the breakdown causing some discipline issues for the hosts, but they never really looked to be in the fight in Whangārei. Dan Sinkinson started the scoring for the visitors, kick-starting what was an impressive showing from the wing, with a try, try assists, five defenders beaten and eight tackles completed, while Oli Mathis’ good season continued with 19 tackles, three turnovers won and 15 carries.
Manawatū picked up their third win on the bounce by shocking Taranaki 27-25 on Thursday. Despite being at home, the Turbos were 8.5-point underdogs but they never looked out of their depth once they found their groove. They barely made any meaningful indents in the opening 15 minutes and found themselves in a 0-10 hole, with the Bulls scoring a converted try and a penalty goal in the early goings, but Manawatū responded in style. Brayden Iose got his first try of the night by bustling over under the posts and then scored a crucial five-pointer shortly before the break, running a lovely line for a 17-10 lead. The Bulls levelled the scores by halftime but Doug Philipson broke the deadlock, finishing off a lovely counter-attack. More drama followed, as James Tofa was sin-binned, seeing Taranaki score 10 quick points for a 24-25 lead, but not for the first time this season, we saw Manawatū keep their composure in the clutch, as Reece MacDonald slotted a late penalty goal for the win.
There are some big outs for Waikato, with Samipeni Finau, Sinkinson and Tepaea Cook-Savage all missing, but Waisake Salabiau returns to start on the right wing. For the Turbos, they’re relatively steady, with Rory Woods coming in for Taine Roiri at blindside, meaning we’re in for an interesting battle on Saturday. Manawatū have been in strong form and have conceded just 37 points in their last two games and they will be able to keep a lid on the scoring of this undermanned Mooloos side. As underdogs of more than a try, I like the visitors here.
Best
Manawatū +8.5 ($1.90)
Value
Manawatū ($3.20)
Try Scorer
Taniela Filimone ($14 First, $1.95 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Taniela Filimone Try / Brayden Iose Try / Oli Mathis Try ($12.43)
Wellington’s winless run continued into Round 7, getting comprehensively beaten by Canterbury 19-66. It was never close at One NZ Stadium, with the hosts securing their four-try bonus point by the 20-minute mark and at halftime it was already an ugly 5-40 score line. Consecutive Wellington tries midway through the second half gave the visitors at least something to hold onto, but that’s not to say that they ever threatened, with their defence repeatedly allowing line breaks, easy metres and tries, rolling over whenever Canterbury got the chance to get deep into the Lions’ territory. Lineout struggles also did the visitors no favours, but Du’Plessis Kirifi, Dominic Ropeti, Callum Harkin and Losi Filipo all toiled away.
Northland completed their second successful Ranfurly Shield defence last Saturday, defeating Waikato 34-17. It was a convincing performance from the Taniwha, with their free-wheeling attack again proving to be very hard to contain. They scored five tries to make it another bonus point win, while their defence were able to keep a lid on almost anything that the Mooloos threw at them, allowing just three line breaks and six entries into their 22. Lachie Hooper popped up again with another try to open the scoring, before Sam Nock followed up with a close-range try of his own, helping Northland to a 15-5 halftime lead. The Taniwha stayed in front from there, as James Ramm, Hooper and Brady Rush each found their way over the chalk in the second half to delight a passionate Whangārei crowd. The 9-10 combo of Nock and Rivez Reihana were highly impressive in organising the hosts’ attack, which Heremaia Murray and Corey Evans flourished in. James Mullan, Allan Craig and Terrell Peita all had big shifts in the pack, but there were plenty who deserved applause up front.
Things aren’t getting much easier for Wellington this week, hosting the red-hot Taniwha, and they will be without Caleb Delany and Divad Palu, to make matters worse. The visitors are resting Rob Rush, Brady Rush and Jordan Trainor, while Nock and Reihana and others are on the bench to give them a rest before next week’s Shield defence. That somewhat opens the door for Wellington, but it’s very hard to see them posing too much of a challenge given how poor their defence has been this season. Northland still possess plenty of attacking threats, in Ramm, Evans, Peita and Hudson Creighton and I expect another big total on Saturday night.
Best
Over 64.5 ($1.90)
Value
Northland 11-20 ($4.20)
Try Scorer
James Ramm ($14 First, $1.96 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
James Ramm Try / Terrell Peita Try / Logan Henry Try ($15.85)
North Harbour pulled off their best win of the season last week, going down to Napier to defeat the previously-unbeaten Hawke’s Bay. As 15.5-point underdogs, Harbour were clearly on the back foot heading into this contest, but as we have seen from them all season long, their precise work in the pack and their freedom of attacking play saw them produce another upset. It was largely a tit-for-tat game, as Jed Melvin scored NH’s first try of the game to take a 7-5 lead, before Israel Leota dotted down moments before the halftime hooter to put the visitors up 12-10. Harbour were sluggish out of the sheds, allowing the Magpies to score two tries to make it a 12-24 ball game with 20 minutes remaining, but it didn’t take long for the visitors to hit back. First up, it was through the forwards, with Oscar Koller scoring from a lineout maul, before Kade Banks finished off a nice counter-attacking break from Hunter Rice to level the scores. Banks then scored another just five minutes later to put Harbour up 31-24 and that’s the way that it would end, despite the visitors playing the last five minutes with 14 men. Harbour’s stars were at their best in this clash, with Banks scoring a double and carrying dangerously all night long, Melvin recording a try and a try assist along with 16 tackles, and George Reeves carrying strongly and making 12 tackles and Leota had his ups and downs, as did Rice.
Canterbury were dominant in their Round 7 victory, waltzing past Wellington 66-19. It was a comprehensive performance from start to finish for the defending champions, scoring a soft try in the opening two minutes of play and the points continued to flow from there, with a 26-0 lead after just 22 minutes. It was a 40-5 ball game at halftime and although Canterbury let their feet off the gas somewhat in the second half, they were always comfortably in control. The attack of the hosts seemed to score points at will, cracking Wellington’s defence whenever they got into good attacking position, while never letting the Lions build many attacks of their own. Xavier Treacy scored a double and was dominant defensively, with 21 tackles to help keep Wellington at bay. Hookers George Bell and Brodie McAlister also helped in a dominant performance from the pack, while Kurtis MacDonald, Andrew Knewstubb and Chay Fihaki all made easy metres in the backs.
Leota is out again for Harbour in what is a bit of a blow to their chances in this blockbuster. As for Canterbury, they have brought Fihaki and Jone Rova back into the starting team for this clash, which has helped them be instated as betting favourites, but I am expecting a real arm wrestle that could go either way. Both teams have had been in the top half of the competition in defence this season and I am picking a low-scoring affair.
Best
Under 67.5 ($1.95)
Value
Canterbury 1-12 ($3.10)
Try Scorer
Brodie McAlister ($11 First, $1.73 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Under 67.5 / Brodie McAlister Try / Jed Melvin Try ($12.91)
Taranaki have fallen out of the top eight after their 25-27 loss to Manawatū last Thursday. It could end up being a costly defeat for the Bulls, in a game where they entered as 8.5-point favourites and then gave up a 10-0 lead to lose at the death in disappointing fashion. It was all Taranaki in the early goings, with a Sam Clarke penalty goal and a Zach Landon-Lane try giving them a 10-point buffer, but the hosts quickly came back to level the scoreline to set up a tense remainder to the game. A yellow card to the hosts, immediately followed by another lineout maul try from the Naki made it just a two-point game, before Clarke nailed another penalty goal to give the visitors the lead. However, they couldn’t gain ascendence in the final 10 minutes, with Manawatū working their way down the field and slotting a penalty goal at the death to win the game. Clarke’s kicking was a bright spot for Taranaki, as was Kaylum Boshier’s work in close, with some big tackles and hustle at the breakdown. Scott Jury had a couple of strong carries to go with 11 tackles, but there were few other attacking standouts as the visitors really struggled to crack the Turbos’ defence in testing conditions.
Southland recorded their biggest win since at least 2018 last Sunday, thumping Bay of Plenty 43-12 to keep their season alive. Now 2-5, there’s still a mathematical chance of the Stags sneaking into the finals, and they will be full of confidence after their last performance. It wasn’t the best start to the game for the hosts, as the Steamers ran in two quick tries for a 7-12 lead, but it was all Southland from there. Mitch Dunshea and Woody Kirkwood were pests at the lineout which often put Southland the front foot and from there, the likes of Glen Vaihu, Gregor Rutledge and Fletcher Morgan made the visitors pay. A trio of yellow cards to the Steamers, as well as a penalty try, really got Southland in the driver’s seat, and from there, tries to Shaun Kempton, Mika Muliaina and Rudledge closed out what will go down as a famous win for Southland. Sean Withy was a workhorse in the pack, with 20 tackles and 14 carries, while Rutledge starred with his try, 10 tackles and all-round presence in open play.
There are a few big ins for Taranaki, with Josh Jacomb, Kini Naholo and Bradley Slater all coming back into the starting team. Boshier and Vereniki Tikoisolomone are both out, which takes of some of the shine, while Southland have made just one change to the XV, with Will Gualter replacing the injured Scott Gregory at centre. Both teams have failed to impress this season and we’ve seen them struggle to score points, which is going to be the case again on Sunday. The under is 4-1 in both teams’ last five games and is the play to end the round.
Best
Under 61.5 ($1.87)
Value
Taranaki 1-12 ($4.20)
Try Scorer
Meihana Grindlay ($15 First, $x Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Under 61.5 / Meihana Grindlay Try / Glen Vaihu Try ($17.02)