Scoring was through the roof in Week 1, setting the table for a compelling Week 2 of action.
The Lions look a tremendous bet getting 4.5 points on the road to the Bills. In the opening two weeks, underdogs of at least four points who missed the playoffs the year prior are 37-22 against the spread. Road underdogs who were favoured by seven or more the week prior are 73-43-5 against the number. The Lions have covered 18 of 21 on the road after playing art home while the Lions have covered 14 of 19 prime time games. The Lions are getting far too many points. Jahmyr Gibbs leads the NFL in touchdowns since coming into the NFL in 2023 with 49 scores. He had 29 carries and five catches in Week 1 with no David Montgomery to vulture touchdowns and split time with. Dalton Kincaid has five catches for 130 yards in Week 1 while ranking second in team targets. Amon-Ra St Brown has reached at least 80 yards on six of his last eight games with at least eight catches – he had 14 targets in Week 1.
Tips
Best: Detroit +4.5 ($1.90)
Next: Detroit Win ($2.80)
Touchdown: Jahmyr Gibbs ($4.10 First, $1.33 Anytime)
SGM: Jahmyr Gibbs TD/Dalton Kincaid Over 50.5 Rec Yards/Amon-Ra St Brown Over 80.5 Rec Yards ($4.34)
The Bengals were a much-hyped preseason team and they got followers off to a strong start with a Week 1 win over Tampa Bay. They can follow it up with a victory over Houston. Joe Burrow is an incredible 19-4 against the spread when getting three or more points while Burrow is 15-7 against the number as a road underdog. This is a game to take the Texans on as well. Home teams off a loss of five or fewer are 5-17 against the spread in Week 2 while favourites who open the season with two straight home games are 6-19 against the spread in the second match. The Bengals are an excellent play. Mike Gesicki was the surprise focal point of the Bengals offense in Week 1. His seven targets led the team while tight ends received 11 of 25 targets to non-running backs. He scored last week. Chase Brown has scored in five of his last six games. Nico Collins had 120 targets last season – no other wideout had more than 68. He had 10 targets in Week 1. Against an average Bengals defence he will get plenty of opportunities.
Tips
Best: Cincinnati +3 ($1.85)
Next: Cincinnati Win ($2.25)
Touchdown: Mike Gesicki ($17 First, $4.10 Anytime)
SGM: Mike Gesicki TD/Chase Brown TD/Nico Collins Over 70.5 Rec Yards ($15.97)
Denver were terrible in Week 1 and given how typically slow Sean Payton teams start the season, we shouldn’t see any major improvement this week from the Broncos. Payton teams are 4-19 against the spread in the opening two weeks since 2014. Payton is also 2-6 against the spread at Denver when the team is on short rest. Trevor Lawrence is 22-14 against the spread off a win while Week 2 road underdogs who were favoured by at least seven points in Week 1 are 73-43-5 against the number since 2018. The Jags are a quality bet. The Broncos got completely slashed by the run game against Kansas City with Kenneth Walker III having 26 touches for 191 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. Bhayshul Tuten got 16 touches last week with 15 runs for 66 yards and will fancy his chances of making an impact this week. Pat Bryant has 40 or more receiving yards in five of his last seven regular season games.
Tips
Best: Jacksonville +2.5 ($1.98)
Next: Jacksonville Win ($2.20)
Touchdown: Bhayshul Tuten ($9.75 First, $2.65 Anytime)
SGM: Bhayshul Tuten TD/Bhayshul Tuten Over 51.5 Rush Yards/Pat Bryant 40+ Receiving Yards ($5.16)
Indianapolis are the best bet in Week 2 getting a big start against Kansas City. The Colts have covered seven of their last nine Week 2 games while they are 17-8 against the spread in September and October with Shane Steichen at the helm. Underdogs of four or more who didn’t make the playoffs last year are 37-22 against the spread in Weeks 1-2. This is a huge spot to be against the Chiefs though primarily. The Chiefs have covered just three of 16 off scoring 30-plus while favourites who open the season at home in their first two games are 6-19 against the spread. The Colts are an outstanding play. Jonathan Taylor is an elite touchdown scorer with 22 in 18 games across the last two seasons. He is a must-include. Kenneth Walker won the Super Bowl MVP and then followed it up with an elite Chiefs debut where he scored two touchdowns will being the centrepoint of the attack. The under is 30-10 in Patrick Mahomes’ last 40 home games while it is 18-7-1 when Daniel Jones plays on grass.
Tips
Best: Indianapolis +6.5 ($1.96)
Next: Indianapolis Win ($3.35)
Touchdown: Jonathan Taylor ($5 First, $1.67 Anytime)
SGM: Under 46.5/Jonathan Taylor TD/Kenneth Walker TD ($7.97)
The Giants were shock winners last week when a home underdog besting the Cowboys but the Rams are a different proposition. Sean McVay’s team seemed to sacrifice themselves in Week 1 with an insane travel plan. The positive is that the travel will have minimal impact heading into Week 2. This is a nice situation for the Rams. Week 2 teams off a double digit loss cover at 64% while those teams off a home or neutral double digit loss are 28-9 against the number. The Rams have too much class. Blake Corum’s role in the backfield is set to expand this year. At the MCG he had 10 runs for 54 yards in a game script that went against his usage. Puka Nacua had 11 touchdowns in 16 games last season while having 129 catches on 166 targets. Kyren Williams had 14 touchdowns last season and scored the Rams’ only TD in Melbourne.
Tips
Best: LA Rams -7 ($1.90)
Next: LA Rams 14+ ($2.95)
Touchdown: Blake Corum ($9.75 First, $2.65 Anytime)
SGM: Blake Corum TD/Puka Nacua TD/Kyren Williams TD ($10.86)
