Rotorua hosts an eight-race program on Wednesday, with the track rated a Heavy10 and the rail out 10m. Mostly clear conditions are forecast for Rotorua on Wednesday, however the track is expected to remain a Heavy10.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the 8 races at Rotorua meeting on Wednesday 12 August below:
Satomi (#1) was seen doing his best work again late last start at Waverley, grinding home solidly in the testing conditions into 2nd. The prospect of another Heavy10 track here over 2200m should be right up his alley, and he maps to settle midfield from his handy draw off what only looks an even tempo on paper. Expect him to out-tough these late in the piece and break through for his maiden win.
| 1. Satomi (3) J: Kylan Wiles 67kg 52452T: Paul Nelson & Corrina McDougal |
Roc Up Ralph (#10) comes here off a handy last-start hurdling win at Te Aroha, where he closed off strongly from back in the field to win nicely. Back to a jumpers flat highweight here, which should suit him as much as any of the jumpers engaged in this. He has a handy record on testing Heavy10 tracks on the flat, which is exactly what he should strike here. Expect him to get back off what should be a solid tempo set by My Maebelline Girl out in front, which should set up nicely for him to grind home over the top late.
| 10. Roc Up Ralph (10) J: Hamish McNeill 68kg 82621T: Shaun & Emma Clotworthy |
Luminance (#3) comes here off a good effort for 2nd on a testing track at Otaki last start, where she led and kicked on well in the straight only to be reeled in in the shadows of the post. She should strip fitter again heading here on the two-week turnaround and Wiremu Pinn is expected to again be positive from the wider draw, having her up on speed from the outset. Can go one better in what looks a moderate R60 field.
| 3. Luminance (7) J: Wiremu Pinn 58kg 79252T: Kurtis Pertab | |||
| Yet to break through this campaign but hasn’t been far away including a last start second over 1200m at Otaki. Rates highly and can measure up. | |||
Sharapova (#6) was last seen running 9th at Ruakaka earlier this month, where she made no impression from the back of the field that day. She drops back in grade for this and from what she has shown to date should appreciate getting on to a Heavy surface here. KWT jumps aboard from the wide draw, where he should have her blending into the race late out wide on the track. Can run a vastly improved race in this company.
| 6. Sharapova (9) J: Kyle Wilson-Taylor 57.5kg 64069T: Margaret Falconer | |||
| Has been in work for quite a while. Finished ninth last start over 2100m at Ruakaka when she had to contend with an awkward barrier. Not a great draw again but represents a top 4 threat. | |||
Cyber Patch (#4) failed to make an impression last start on the Cambridge Synthetic in R80 company, where he got back and never got into the race. He has trialled fairly on a Heavy track at Te Rapa since, which should have him rock hard fit heading into this assignment on what will likely be a testing track. From the wide draw, he could well lead this field if ridden positively early by Ethan Jones, as there doesn’t look to be any pressure in this race. He’s done much of his better racing up on speed in the past and could give a big sight back in this company if he copes with the testing nature of the track.
| 4. Cyber Patch (9) J: Ethan Jones 58.5kg 05066T: Catherine Cameron | |||
| Was thereabouts two starts back but didn’t impress last start when sixth over 2000m at Cambridge Synthetic. Willing to give him another chance. | |||
Unswayed (#8) is a 4yo son of Sweynesse on debut for Conor & Sarah Fahy, having had five trials ahead of his first start (two this prep) to prepare him for raceday. His most recent trials on Heavy tracks have caught the eye, particularly the latest where he picked up nicely when asked and won with ease late. He strikes a very winnable maiden for his debut and gets the services of Michael McNab, which is a big plus. Should settle back and wide in the better part of the track from his wide draw before looking to unwind late.
| 8. Unswayed (8) J: Michael McNab 58.5kg T: Conor and Sarah Fahy | |||
| First starter who looks ready to run well following a trial win over 1000m at Avondale on July 21. Sure to have admirers. | |||
Bonus Bond (#2) is a 5yo mare by Telperion coming here at just start number four for Taui Johnson. Her past two efforts on Heavy tracks have been very credible, getting through the conditions well and not being beaten far on either occasion. The blinkers now go on for this, which should sharpen her up further, and she looks nicely placed down in the weights carrying 54.5kg after Tom Wigram’s claim. Expect her to be in the best part of the track throughout and get her chance to break through for her maiden win.
| 2. Bonus Bond (9) J: Tom Wigram 57.5kg 632T: Taui Johnson | |||
| Raced handy then tired in the run home on debut. Went a little better at this track at the next run and then filled a minor placing last start over 1400m at Te Aroha. Has upside and poses a threat. | |||
Sweetazme (#3) is a locally trained 6yo coming here second-up for Ray Fleming, last sighted finishing off fairly for 8th at Ellerslie in what was a very handy R65 field that day. He should strip fitter heading here and looks well suited getting back to his home deck, a track he has typically done his best racing at in the past. 1400m on a Heavy track should suit, whilst a strong rider in Matty Cameron should aid his chances. Can run a much improved race here.
| 3. Sweetazme (7) J: Matthew Cameron 59kg 247X8T: Ray Fleming | |||
| Resumes from a break of ten weeks. Finished eighth at his most recent appearance over 1200m at Ellerslie. Great chance fresh up on his home track. | |||
