The career-best form of Kostyuk continued in the quarter finals where she won the battle of the Ukrainians against Svitolina. The nerves were present for both players in the deciding set as they trade 5 breaks of serve to begin the third set. Kostyuk was the first to steady the ship and closed it out 6-2. In contrast, Andreeva was fast out of the gate and never took her foot off the pedal in a crushing 6-3 6-0 win over Cirstea. It means that Andreeva is into the semi finals here for the second time in the last three years. In 2024, she won an epic quarter final against Sabalenka and as a 17-year-old had nothing left in the tank for the semi final clash with Paolini.
This will be the third meeting between them this season with Kostyuk having won the previous two. It began with a 7-6 6-3 win at the Brisbane International (hard court) followed by a 6-3 7-5 win on clay in Madrid last month. Kostyuk won the big moment in those matches where she converted 8 of 12 break opportunities. Those results coupled with a 17-match win streak during the clay season have seen Kostyuk installed as the favourite. It means that we are getting a huge price for Andreeva who has lost no more than 3 games in 10 of the 11 sets she has played in Paris. The courts here are slower than Madrid and that will favour Andreeva. Her numbers on serve have been excellent throughout the tournament having held 87% of her service games. Kostyuk is down at 71% in that department and has had almost twice as many (24) double faults as Andreeva (13). Am confident that Andreeva will produce her best tennis.
Best Bet: Andreeva +1.5 ($1.87)
Value: Set 1 Correct Score After 2 Games – Andreeva 2-0 ($4.00)
Diana Shnaider v Maja Chwalinska
When you get into the second week of a major it is about taking your chances. Sabalenka failed to do so in the second set against Shnaider – losing 10 games in a row. The world number 1 failed to handle the windy conditions in the final against Gauff last year and the second half of her battle with Shnaider was a carbon copy. Full credit to Shnaider who will start a clear favourite in the semi final. Favouritism is justified not based on her win over Sabalenka but the matchup issue that she poses. Chwalinska has moon-balled her way into the final four of a major. She has kept the ball in court and combined high arching forehands with drop shots which have disrupted the rhythm of her opponents. Her biggest challenge in this match is executing those tactics as Shnaider is a fellow lefty.
The pair have met once before at ITF level back in 2022 with Shnaider coming away with a 6-4 6-4 win on clay. She was able to generate 6 breaks of serve in that match and there will be no shortage of breaks for her in this match. Shnaider is coming off 6 breaks against Keys and 7 breaks in her win over Sabalenka – two of the most dominant servers on the WTA Tour. Chwalinska has virtually been rolling the ball in the court throughout the tournament but will not be able to get away with the slider serve in the ad court against Shnaider as it will be going right into her forehand. If Shnaider gets on top early as expected, she will run away with this one.
Best Bet: Shnaider -3.5 ($1.95)
Value: Set 1 Score After 2 games – Shnaider 2-0 ($3.35)