There are two more semi finals spots up for grabs with Sabalenka the only player in the top half of the draw to have made it this far at a major. There is an enormous gap in experience between her and the other three women but she still needs to win three more matches to win her first Roland Garros title.
The world number one emerged a straight sets winner over Osaka and deserves credit for producing her best tennis in the biggest moments. Converted 4 of 5 break opportunities, thundered down 12 aces and won 83% of 1st serve points. There isn’t a player remaining in the draw that would be able to get the better of her if she produces those numbers. Shnaider went the distance against Keys but there was under no pressure in the third set winning it 6-0. Surprisingly, this is the first meeting between the two players and that will work against Shnaider. Facing the world’s best player is difficult under any circumstances but doing so in your first Grand Slam quarter finals appearance increases the pressure significantly. Being a lefty regularly works in Shnaider’s favour but it will count for very little against the backhand of Sabalenka. The biggest concern for Shnaider will be holding serve. She has won only 57% of 1st serve points for the tournament and this is despite the fact that she has not had a tough draw. Sabalenka will be dominant on serve as always and will break serve at will.
Best Bet: Sabalenka -5.5 ($1.95)
Value: 1st Set Under 7.5 games
You don’t make the quarter finals of a Grand Slam without having played tennis of the highest order but there are some major holed in the game of Kalinskaya that Chwalinska can exploit. Kalinskaya has played 10 sets so far in the tournament and has dropped serve a grand total of 22 times. She has won only 57% of service games and a big part of that is claiming a very low 58% of points behind her first serve. In contrast, Chwalinska has held 76% of service games and won more than 60% of 2nd serve points. Along with the numbers we need to see who they have been against. What makes Chwalinska’s numbers even more impressive is that she has faced Qinwen Zheng (Grand Slam finalist), Maria Sakkari (former no.3 and two-time major semi finalist) and Elise Mertens (6 times Grand Slam winner in doubles). Forget the fact that she has come through the qualifiers as Chwalinska is playing an incredible brand of tennis. She should be a clear favourite.
Best Bet: Chwalinska WIN ($1.90)
Value: Chwalinska -1.5 Sets ($2.95)