Sinner had been flying the Italian flag in recent years but despite his early exit, there are three Italian men remaining in the top half of the draw! They will have at least one semi finalist with the two Matteo’s facing off while Cobolli takes on Auger-Aliassime as he looks to make it through to the final four of a slam for the first time.
The following is not often the case but the serve of Auger-Aliassime has carried him a long way in this tournament. He had 15 aces in a tight four set win against Nakashima but that pales in comparison to the 17 aces he thundered down in a straight sets win over Tabilo. The Chilean was unable to break the Auger-Aliassime serve but the Canadian faces a very different prospect in the quarters. Cobolli took one more set than he needed to beat Svajda but the big news leading into this one is the Italian’s 2-0 advantage in the H2H. He has won the last four sets against Auger-Aliassime and the score in those sets (6-3, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2) suggests that he is a genuine matchup issue for the no.4 seed. It is also the reason why the bookies have been unable to split them in betting. That is not the case for us as both of those meetings won by Cobolli came on a hard court – Auger Aliassime’s preferred surface. His best results including two of his three career titles have come on clay. With that in mind we will be backing the Italian.
Best Bet: Cobolli WIN ($1.90)
Value: Sets Cobolli 3-1 ($4.75)
Matteo meets Matteo but friendship will turn into rivalry once they take the court. This will be their first official clash on the ATP Tour but we know enough about them to anticipate how this one will go. Arnaldi looked down and out in the fourth set against Tiafoe but the American failed to serve it out. You could say that Arnaldi got away with one but the reality is that the match was on Tiafoe’s racquet and he failed to convert. Arnaldi was able to generate 8 breaks of serve in that match but he will not be replicating that against his countryman. Berrettini has been broken a total of only 6 times in the tournament and that’s 15 sets played. He will get a chance to control the baseline exchanges with his forehand and his ability to generate a substantial amount of free points on serve will be the difference. Coming off consecutive five set battles will also work against Arnaldi. Berrettini in 3-4 sets.
Best Bet: Berrettini WIN ($1.62)
Value: Set 1 Correct Score Berrettini 7-6 ($6.00)