Alexander Zverev moved one step closer to that elusive major title but a trio of youngsters remain in his way. He takes on teenage sensation Rafel Jodar in the quarter and if he can get through will then need to handle the brute horsepower of Fonseca or Mensik. Forget about age, experience, odds and history because any of the four players in action today can make the final.
Jodar has been staring defeat in the face in his last two matches but found a way to respond on each occasion to win in five sets. He lost the opening two sets in his 4th Round battle with Carreno Busta before winning 18 of the next 23 games – accumulating 8 breaks of serve along the way. It sounds great but he cannot afford to fall behind against Zverev who made light work of De Jong. Like Jodar, the Dutchman was coming off a long five set match and his level deteriorated quickly. Jodar was one of our value plays to win the tournament but he is up against it here. Had he not been coming off back-to-back five set matches he would be in this up to his ears. The one thing that could work in his favour is the pressure that Zverev carries into the contest. The German went down an early break against De Jong and Jodar will have to replicate that and be at his best from the opening point. The slower conditions will favour Jodar as he possesses more raw power from the forehand side and will also negate the Zverev serve. The best bet in this one is an unusual one – Under 14.5 aces. The two players combined for 7 aces across 8 sets played between them in the previous round and the slow conditions will make it very difficult to hit through the court. Outside of that, can sense a five set thriller.
Best Bet: Under 14.5 aces ($1.80)
Value: Total Sets – 5 Sets ($3.70)
There were suspicions that Fonseca would struggle to follow up his win over Djokovic but the 19-year-old silenced the critics in style with a four set win over Ruud. The most impressive aspect of the win was his dominance on serve with Ruud, one of the best returners in the game, only able to generate 2 breaks of serve in the entire match. Fonseca won 61% of 2nd serve points which is incredible on this surface and against that calibre of opposition at this level. Mensik struggled in patches in his five set win over Rublev with 9 double faults and only 43% of 2nd serve points won. The only prior meetings between them came at the Next Gen Finals in 2024 with Fonseca winning a tight contest. Mensik had 22 aces on a fast indoor surface but will not enjoy the same level of freedom on serve here. The Brazilian has a clear edge on serve and unlike his battle with Rublev, Mensik will not be able to pound the Fonseca backhand in the hope of finding success.
Best Bet: Fonseca -3.5 ($1.83)
Value: Sets Fonseca 3-0 ($3.00)