Super Rugby Pacific Round 15 | Tips & Preview

The Crusaders improved to 2-0 at their new home with a 36-20 victory over the Blues in Round 13. It was a clinical performance from Rob Penney’s team, as they led for almost the entire game, with George Bauer and Jamie Hanna scoring the opening two tries. That was an indication of how strong of a performance it was going to be for the Crusaders forward pack, with their set piece dominating for the duration of the game and their newly unlocked weapon, Leicester Fainga’anuku, producing an outstanding man of the match performance. He played a key role in the Crusaders’ first two tries before dinking a grubber through for Sevu Reece to pounce on for a try in the second half. The back-turned-loosie finished the game with 15 tackles, 11 carries and was a menace at the breakdown, helping the hosts get out to a 31-13 lead with 20 minutes on the clock. There were some scares shortly after, with Kurtis MacDonald getting sent off and Jack Sexton getting sin binned in the space of three minutes, and the Blues found their way over the line immediately afterwards, but the Crusaders’ defence held strong from there and a George Bell try with a few minutes to play ended any chances of a Blues comeback. Aside from Fainga’anuku, Rivez Reihana was a standout for the hosts, looking confident in his first start in almost two months and Christian Lio-Willie was always looking to get involved.

The Chiefs made the most of their opportunities to pick up a 42-12 victory over the Highlanders last week. While the scoreline makes it look like it was a comfortable win, their hosts were made to work very hard by the gritty Highlanders, but the attacking class of Jono Forbes’ side was on display. The Chiefs had just nine entries into the Landers’ 22, but they made the most of those chances, scoring six tries to crucially record a bonus-point win and stay within touch of the table-topping Hurricanes. The Chiefs had just 41% possession, but they did some real damage when they did have the ball, led by Wallace Sititi, who was relentless all night long. His 15 carries led the way for the Chiefs, while recording 12 tackles and holding the Highlanders up over the goal line to produce another big outing. Naitoa Ah Kuoi was also impressive, especially in the first half, while Xavier Roe looked to strengthen his grip on the starting #9 jersey, with another lively performance. Damian McKenzie left the game after catching a stray boot and being knocked out, and that will leave the Chiefs without their main attacking weapon for at least the next week.

Will Jordan and Chay Fihaki make their timely returns from injury to start at wing and fullback for the Crusaders and for the Chiefs, Samipeni Finau, Cortez Ratima, and Isaac Hutchinson are promoted from the bench into the starting XV. Quinn Tupaea also makes his return from injury to start at second five-eighth and form a very strong Chiefs lineup, and I expect them to have too much firepower for the hosts. It’s a very inexperienced bench that Penney has at his disposal and I expect that to be a big difference late on, with the visitors recording the win.

Best
Chiefs ($1.80)

Value
Chiefs 1-12 ($3.20)

Try Scorer
Samisoni Taukei’aho ($12 First, $2.10 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Samisoni Taukei’aho Try / Leicester Fainga’anuku Try / Cortez Ratima Try ($18.09)

The Waratahs produced a significant upset last week, beating the Fijian Drua 50-35 in Suva. Entering the game as 9.5-point underdogs, New South Wales weren’t given much of a chance of overcoming the Fijians on the road, but they shot out of the gates to score the game’s first three tries, building a 19-0 lead inside the opening 20 minutes. The Drua were able to bounce back with a try of their own, but another trio of Waratahs tries before half time, through Sid Harvey, Teddy Wilson and Angus Scott-Young, put NSW up 36-7 at the break. Ioane Moananu scored his second try of the game shortly after halftime to extend the Tahs’ lead to 36 points and, although the visitors let their foot off the gas from then on, the Drua would never have any chance of completing the comeback. There were some very well-worked tries produced by the Waratahs in this game, but their work across the ground and its set piece is what really set them up for success in this clash. Their scrum was strong and they dominated the hosts’ lineout, winning seven of their 19 throws to find themselves in good field position often, where the likes of Max Jorgensen thrived. The young fullback led the team with 12 carries and often looked dangerous, beating five defenders and recording a line break, and Lawson Creighton was threatening at second five-eighth. Scott-Young and Matt Philip were again immense on defence, with 16 and 12 tackles respectively, while Triston Reilly was strong defensively out wide.

The Brumbies would have enjoyed their bye week last week after overcoming the Force 32-15 in Round 13. That kept them on top of the bunch of Australian teams on the ladder, now sitting at fifth with just two rounds to play. Lachie Shaw got the Brumbies off to a hot start with a try inside the opening three minutes, but a very tight first half ensued, with the host taking a 14-10 lead into the break. However, it was all the Brumbies in the second half, and Ryan Lonergan’s fingerprints were all over the win as he scored 13 of the team’s 18 second-half points in what was a commanding performance from the halfback. His kicking game was elite, and he provided accurate and fast service for his backs while also adding a try and a long-range penalty goal in the second half to put the game beyond the visitors’ reach. More broadly, the Brumbies’ defence was excellent, conceding just two tries and one line break, with the other Lonergan, Lachlan, racking up a team-high 16 tackles. His front row partners Allan Alaalatoa (14 tackles) and James Slipper (13) were also defensive menaces, while Rob Valetini had another big night in the carry and Corey Toole looked like the most dangerous of the outside backs.

Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii is out with a hamstring injury for the Tahs in what is a big blow for them, seeing Reilly move back into the midfield and Harvey rejoin the starting team. Billy Pollard, Cadeyrn Neville and Kadin Pritchard are the new faces in the Brumbies’ XV, while Luke Reimer returns from injury off the bench. That makes for one of the strongest ACT teams that we have seen this year, which has me very keen to back them as slim favourites. NSW have consistently been overrated by the market this season and this is another prime example. I just can’t see their attack or their pack troubling their Brumbies counterparts.

Best
Brumbies -4.5 ($1.85)

Value
Brumbies 13+ ($3.10)

Try Scorer
Corey Toole ($9.50 First, $1.82 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Corey Toole Try / Billy Pollard Try / Ryan Lonergan Try ($13.44)

Moana Pasifika picked up their 11th consecutive loss in Round 13, falling to the Hurricanes 17-50. It was ugly from the get-go, as the Hurricanes scored inside the opening 10 minutes and had a 0-19 lead before the 30-minute mark. Tuna Tuitama was able to score shortly after to get Moana on the board, before completing his double in the second half, but this was another dispiriting defeat for Tana Umaga’s side. They were outscored three tried to eight and simply looked awful on defence, with just an 80% tackle completion rate while giving up 17 turnovers to play themselves out of the game. Their lineout was shaky and their inability to slow down the Hurricanes when they were on attack made this one a blowout, but Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa did himself proud again with a big shift at the back of the scrum. Faletoi Peni had some good touches and Tuitama took his chances well, but there were few other positives for MP in this loss.

The Reds slipped to a 14-19 loss against the Force on Saturday to set up a big run home in the final two rounds of the season. Queensland entered the season with big aspirations but are by no means secured a top-six spot, with last week’s loss allowing the chasing pack to close in, with the Waratahs just two points behind them and the Highlanders four points back. It was a real arm wrestle of a game in Perth and it’s fair to say that the Force deserved to win this one, as the Reds never led and were sloppy throughout most of the contest. They certainly gave themselves the chances to come out on top, but the execution and the host’s red zone left plenty of points on the table. Tim Ryan was able to finish off a nice try off a set play in the second half, and Harry Wilson’s limitless motor was on show yet again, but in a rather unusual outcome for the Reds, their attack lacked penetration.

It’s a rejigged back line for Moana, wit Patrick Pellegrini returning from injury, meaning William Havili shifts to fullback. Glen Vaihu goes onto the left wing and Tevita Latu joins the midfield in place of Peni. For the visitors, Tate McDermott makes his season debut at halfback, with Fraser McReight, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto and Filipo Daugunu all coming back into the starting team. Exciting youngster Treyvon Pritchard gets his second start of the season and, with a lot of their stars returning, Queensland are poised for a big win here. They have the pack to really dominate this battle and with Ryan and Pritchard at their disposal out wide, they’ll make the hosts pay.

Best
Reds -17.5 ($1.90)

Value
Power Plays — Reds to Win by 16 – 25 (refund if Reds Win by 11 – 15 or 26 – 30) ($3.50)

Try Scorer
Treyvon Pritchard ($10 First, $1.72 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Treyvon Pritchard Try / Harry Wilson Try / Fraser McReight Try ($9.95)

The Hurricanes established their position as the team to beat this season, with their 47-24 win in Auckland last week sending another statement to the rest of the competition. As it has done for most of the season, the Canes’ attack looked almost unstoppable at times, including early on when Warner Dearns charged down a Beauden Barrett clearance attempt to score, before Jordie Barrett finished off a long-range special to make it 14-0 inside of 15 minutes. Pasilio Tosi bulldozed his way over the line just before half time to see the Hurricanes take a 21-0 lead into the sheds and they were never under threat from there, with four more tries coming in the second half to bank another five competition points and put them in pole position for a first place finish. There were plenty of standouts for the Hurricanes in this one, with Tosi running hard and locking down a rock-solid Hurricane scrum, Dearns putting in a trademark shift featuring plenty of carries and tackles and, in the outsides, Billy Proctor got involved plenty and Barrett had his most impactful game of the season.

The Highlanders simply looked out of their depth last week as they fell to the Chiefs 12-42 in Hamilton. For much of the game, Colin Cooper’s team were competitive, and they enjoyed almost 60% possession on the night, but they could not breach the Chiefs’ defence regularly enough to truly threaten the hosts. After an exhausting build-up, the Highlanders finally crossed the chalk in the 18th minute, thanks to a powerful surge off the back of the scrum from Lucas Casey, but points were few and far between from there, with Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens’ try almost 40 minutes later being the only further points that the visitors would score. With 10 entries into the Chiefs 22, the Highlanders weren’t without their chances, but they struggled for penetration on attack, and they suffered a cruel blow as Caleb Tangitau went down with a season-ending Achilles injury. Outside of their lack of bite on attack, it was a generally tidy performance from the Highlanders, who had a 92% tackle completion rate and conceded just five penalties, and Casey was the clear standout, being voted as man of the match despite being in a team that went down by 30 points. The young flanker was everywhere and had a stack of barnstorming carries to get his team moving forward, but there were few other Highlanders players who could capitalise on that momentum. Timoci Tavatavanawai was desctructive as always and Tangitau had some good runs, but the visitors needed more.

There are a few big names missing for the Hurricanes on Saturday, including Xavier Numia, Caleb Delany, Proctor and Fehi Fineanganofo all sitting this one out, but that’s not to say it’s a weak lineup. Brayden Iose, Josh Moorby and Bailyn Sullivan headline the additions to the starting team, while Du’Plessis Kirifi returns off the bench. As for the Highlanders, Jona Nareki returns from suspension, with Hugh Renton and Nic Shearer also forming a new 8-9 combo. The visitors are in store for another loss on Saturday but I don’t expect to be as rough of a scoreline as last week’s. This is an undermanned Hurricanes team and the final score didn’t reflect the Highlanders’ control of the game for large passages. That has been a somewhat common trend for the Landers this season and they will be able to keep this game reasonably competitive.

Best
Highlanders +21.5 ($1.90)

Value
Hurricanes 11-20 ($3.80)

Try Scorer
Josh Moorby ($10 First, $1.88 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Josh Moorby Try / Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens Try / Peter Lakai Try ($16.64)

The Force picked up another huge win at home last week, beating the Reds 19-14 to keep their postseason hopes alive. They are still six points back of the sixth-placed Reds, but this win was a significant one, not only in keeping them within arm’s length of a finals berth, but also in proving that they are up there with the best Australian Super teams, as they defended relentlessly and did just enough with the ball in hand to record the victory. It was a messy and rather hard game to watch, but the Force’s defence against a Queensland side that had some golden of attacking opportunities was impressive, missing just 17 tackles and conceding just 1.7 points per 22 entry. Their lineout was equally as important, with Jeremy Williams having another impactful game in the second row, not only at set-piece but also on defence, as he finished with six line-out wins, eight tackles and eight carries. Carlo Tizzano was the star again for the Force, scoring two of the team’s three tries and topping his team’s tackle tally with 18, while also racking up 10 carries.

The Drua effectively saw their finals chances slip away last weekend, losing to the Waratahs 35-50 in Suva. The Fijians would have circled this game as a very winnable contest and four or five competition points here would have ensured that they stayed in the race for a top-six finish. However, they were woeful in the first half, conceding six tries to head into the sheds down 7-36 and while they tidied up their act in the second half, they left it much too late to pull off the comeback. Scoring four of the game’s final five tries, the Drua showed plenty of life late in the piece and showcased their usual attacking flair, but they were absolutely dreadful in the first half, with their lineout having all sorts of struggles and their defence regularly slipping off tackles. Veteran midfielder Virimi Vakatawa was excellent again, as were Kitione Salawa and Elia Canakaivata, but the team’s 80% tackle completion and their set piece struggles resulted in disappointment in Suva.

There are minimal team changes for the hosts, with Bayley Kuenzle’s addition in the place of George Bridge being the only change to the run-on team, but the same can’t be said for the Drua, who have made eight changes to their XV. That will make for a disjointed display from the visitors and the Force will be able to get another win here, but I don’t expect it to be all that pretty. We haven’t seen the hosts really click often on attack this season and their defence will keep the Drua to a low total, making the under the bet here. The under has hit in the Force’s last five games and in four of the Drua’s last five.

Best
Under 55.5 ($1.90)

Value
Force 1-12 ($3.40)

Try Scorer
Dylan Pietsch ($9.00 First, $1.75 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Under 55.5 / Dylan Pietsch Try / Isikeli Rabitu Try ($23.47)