NRL Tips & Preview | Magic Round

Two desperate teams open up Magic Round with Cronulla and Canterbury being two of the major disappointments in 2026. The Sharks sit 10th on the ladder and a team that has long prided itself on defence has conceded 20-plus in seven of nine. The Bulldogs sit 13th having conceded 28-plus in five of their last six. In such a situation, one would expect both to focus heavily on righting their defensive structures in this. History suggests a low-scoring affair is on the cards with 12 of the last 15 tallying 38 or fewer points. The under has hit in eight of the last 12. The last four have failed to surpass 31 points. The Bulldogs attack is the most concerning element of this too with Canterbury scoring 16 or fewer in six of nine games and no notable changes made to the attack this week. Expect points to be very hard to come by. Teig Wilton has five tries in seven games this year and has scored in two of his last five against Canterbury. KL Iro is absolutely airborne with nine tries in his last six games.

Tips

Best: Under 50.5 ($1.90)
Next: Canterbury Under 22.5 ($1.90)
Tryscorer: Teig Wilton ($19 First, $3.15 Anytime)
SGM: Teig Wilton Try/KL Iro Try ($5.75)

Points fiestas have been the norm when the Bunnies and Phins have played and nothing different is expected in this one when the two meet on a hard and fast Suncorp Stadium deck. The over has been the norm in Magic Round and in particular in night games with the over 17-8 under lights over the last five seasons. Four of the five meetings between Souths and the Dolphins have reached 50 combined points with the last two combining for 70-plus. The over is 4-1 between the two teams. This is a handy over spot for both teams too with the over 15-10 when Souths play interstate and 18-11 when the Dolphins are favoured. Both have strong over records at Suncorp too with the over 6-3 in Souths games and 20-14 in Dolphins matches. The points should flow in the Friday nightcap. Cody Walker has doubles in two of his last five games and Souths score 58% of their tries down their left side. Latrell Mitchell has 11 tries in eight games this season. Jamayne Isaako has crossed six times in his last three games and is in red-hot form.

Tips

Best: Over 55.5 ($1.90)
Next: Both Teams To Score 20+ ($1.75)
Tryscorer: Cody Walker ($23 First, $3.50 Anytime)
SGM: Cody Walker Try/Latrell Mitchell Try/Jamayne Isaako Try ($10.06)

There is a tipping point in sport when it comes to key injuries and the Wests Tigers are on the wrong side of it with three of the starting spine sidelined by injury and suspension. Jahream Bula, Adam Doueihi and Api Koroisau are all missing and the result is that a Tigers team that showed tremendous improvement early in the season have been rendered uncompetitive. The last two weeks have been a disaster for Benji Marshall’s team, suffering a 52-10 loss to a decidedly average Cronulla before losing 44-16 to a Storm team that entered the match riding a seven-game losing streak. The Tigers are now 1-8 when Koroisau is missing, losing six of those by at least 14 points. Manly have been a different team since Kieran Foran took over from Anthony Seibold and this is a nice spot for them. The Sea Eagles have covered six of seven against Top 8 opposition and 16 of 27 off scoring 30-plus while they thrive under Grant Atkins, covering seven of 11. Tolutau Koula does his best work in the centres with 19 tries in his last 29 games playing at left centre. Reuben Garrick has five tries in his last six games. Lehi Hopoate has eight tries in six games since Kieran Foran took over with two doubles.

Tips

Best: Manly -8.5 ($1.90)
Next: Manly 13+ ($2.30)
Tryscorer: Tolutau Koula ($10.50 First, $1.88 Anytime)
SGM: Tolutau Koula Try/Reuben Garrick Try/Lehi Hopoate 2+ Tries ($15.32)

Both the Roosters and Cowboys are in tremendous attacking form of late and look set to deliver fireworks when the two attacking powerhouses meet on Saturday. The Roosters have scored 33 or more in five of their last six on their way to the third best attack in the NRL. The Cowboys have scored at least 28 in seven of their last eight. The key in this one though is perhaps the porous quality of the Cowboys defence that has conceded at least 31 points in four of their last five. That defence diminishes when Tom Dearden is out, the Cowboys conceding nearly two points per game in his absence. The over is 14-9 when the Roosters are double digit favourites and 13-9 when they play interstate while it hits at 63% when the Cowboys are off a win and is 20-11 when they are off scoring 28-plus. Sam Walker is in super tryscoring form with five tries in his last five games. Hugo Savala has loved his move to the centres with four tries in his last four games. Daniel Tupou has eight tries this season as he closes in on becoming the third man to score 200 premiership tries.

Tips

Best: Over 56.5 ($1.90)
Next: Over 64.5 ($2.75)
Tryscorer: Sam Walker ($23 First, $3.45 Anytime)
SGM: Sam Walker Try/Hugo Savala Try/Daniel Tupou Try ($9.26)

The Storm have absolutely blitzed the hapless Eels in recent years including a 52-4 win in Round 1 and having found some form against the Tigers last week can run up a big score this week. The Eels are the worst defensive team in the NRL, conceding 20-plus in all 10 matches this year while they have conceded at least 30 in seven of those. Melbourne’s defence has hardly been reliable either, conceding 26-plus in six of their last seven. The over has hit in seven of the last 11 Storm interstate games while it is 5-1 when they are favoured by more than a converted try. The over is also 32-15 when the Eels are away from CommBank including a 17-5 record when they play interstate. This game has points written all over it. Jahrome Hughes comes off just his second try of the season but the Storm are at their best when Hughes attacks the line. Will Warbrick has nine tries in 10 games this season. Sua Fa’alogo has 12 tries this season in 10 games, failing to score just once.

Tips

Best: Over 53.5 ($1.83)
Next: Melbourne 41+ Points ($4.00)
Tryscorer: Jahrome Hughes ($17 First, $2.75 Anytime)
SGM: Jahrome Hughes Try/Will Warbrick Try/Sua Fa’alogo Try ($6.37)

Newcastle are a very new team in 2026 with the impact of Justin Holbrook replacing Adam O’Brien immeasurable. That impact has most been seen in their attack, which has been electric when he has had his stars at his disposal. The Knights have won their four games this season when Kalyn Ponga has played, winning three by double digits and averaging 37.5 points per game in those matches. That bodes poorly for a Titans team that has topped 22 just once this year. Newcastle have covered their last four at Suncorp, have a 30-16 cover record in afternoon matches and have covered 14 of 19 against bottom five teams. The Titans, by contrast, have covered just five of 18 against Top 8 teams and have a significant roster rebuild ahead of them. The Knights should lap the Titans. Dylan Lucas has four tries in his last five games. Bradman Best has four tries in his eight games against the Titans. Greg Marzhew comes off scoring five tries against the Dragons.

Tips

Best: Newcastle -9.5 ($1.85)
Next: Newcastle 41+ Points ($3.10)
Tryscorer: Dylan Lucas ($16 First, $2.50 Anytime)
SGM: Dylan Lucas Try/Bradman Best Try/Greg Marzhew Try ($6.50)

Arguably the hottest match of Magic Round this year is the Sunday afternoon affair between the Warriors and Broncos. New Zealand have been outstanding this year on their way to second on the ladder. They have scored 28-plus in six of their last nine while they rank Top 4 in both attack and defence. Brisbane are enduring a difficult and disappointing season as injury has wreaked havoc through the defending premiers. The over is 24-16 the last five seasons in Magic Round and both teams look to be in a strong over spot this week. The over is 21-7 in the last 28 day games this season. The over is 10-4 when the Warriors are off rest of 11 or more days while it is 17-11 when they are off conceding 14 or fewer. The over is 9-5 when the Broncos play day games and 7-2 when they are off scoring 10 or fewer. Another over game is on the cards here. Chanel Harris-Tavita is an underrated tryscorer who has 11 tries in his last 30 games. Leka Halasima has scored in both his matches against the Broncos.

Tips

Best: Over 51.5 ($1.83)
Next: Over 59.5 ($2.70)
Tryscorer: Chanel Harris-Tavita ($23 First, $3.70 Anytime)
SGM: Chanel Harris-Tavita Try/Leka Halasima Try ($8.36)

The biggest mismatch of the season wraps up Magic Round with premiership front-runners Penrith up against the winless St George Illawarra. The Panthers will be focussed this week with the news that Ivan Cleary will be departing at the end of 2027 in a seminal moment for the club. This match will be decided entirely by Penrith and their willingness to run up a score. They really have not put teams to the sword when heavily favoured though, covering just three of nine when favoured by at least 24. The one certainty in this one though is that this is the best defensive team against the worst attacking side and the Dragons are really going to struggle to score here making their team total and the under on it the best play in this one. The Dragons have scored 14 or fewer in five of nine. Blaize Talagi is in hot form with four tries in his last four games. Brian To’o has four tries in five games against the Dragons. Tom Jenkins is the leading tryscorer and plays on the left where the Dragons conceded five tries to Greg Marzhew last week.

Tips

Best: St George Illawarra Under 14.5 ($1.80)
Next: St George Illawarra 0-10 Points ($2.20)
Tryscorer: Blaize Talagi ($15 First, $2.35 Anytime)
SGM: Blaize Talagi Try/Brian To’o Try/Tom Jenkins 2+ Tries ($8.41)