Experience was the key word for a couple of major champions in the 3rd Round with Madison Keys and Osaka getting the better of two upcoming stars (Mboko and Jovic). Things will not get any easier moving forward and the one name standing in everybody’s way in this half of the draw is top seed Aryna Sabalenka. Gauff’s title defence has come to an end so we will have a new women’s champion.
The remaining women in the draw better be worried because Sabalenka is coming off her best match of the tournament. The world number 1 cruised past Kasatkina and the same cannot be said about Osaka who needed three hours and multiple breakers to defeat Jovic. Of the 7 sets that Osaka has played in the tournament, 4 have been decided by a tiebreaker. She has spent significantly more time on court in the gruelling heat and must now find a way to level-up against the world’s best. Sabalenka has won the last two meetings in this series including a three-set battle in Rome a fortnight ago. Osaka took the opening set in a tiebreaker before Sabalenka found her best tennis to win 6-3 6-2. Sabalenka won 62% of 2nd serve points in that match which highlights her dominance from the baseline. Back her with confidence to cover the games handicap.
Best Bet: Sabalenka -4.5 ($1.80)
The battle between Keys and Mboko was among the best matches we have seen in the opening week with the experience of Keys being the difference in critical moment of the match. Shnaider is yet to drop a set and will be fresh but must overcome a 0-3 deficit in this series. That said, they have played out some remarkably close encounters with the most recent at the Adelaide International this year having three tiebreakers – unheard of in women’s tennis. Their battle on grass las year also went the distance so look for this one to also go to a deciding third set.
Best Bet: Over 21.5 games ($1.83)
Value: Set 1 Total Games – Over 10.5 ($3.50)
The locals will have more to cheer about with Parry still in the draw but the heatwave that has helped her game is now gone for the rest of the tournament. After beating Anisimova, you would think that she could beat anyone in the draw but this is a bad matchup. Chwalinska is a left which means that the Parry single-handed backhand will be under siege from cross-court forehands. Moreover, with the heatwave gone it will be significantly harder for Parry to generate speed and bounce – preventing her from getting the ball up and out of her opponents strike zone. Chwalinska has reeled off wins over three very accomplished players in Zheng, Mertens and Sakkari. Really like her chances here.
Best Bet: Chwalinska WIN ($1.55)
Tennis is about matchups and as predicted, Potapova caused Gauff more problems than many expected. She got the better of the defending champion but now takes on an opponent that she is yet to defeat at the top level (0-2). Her form suggests that she can go even deeper in the tournament with wins over Rybakina, Ostapenko and now Gauff during the European clay court series. Kalinskaya was one the wrong end of a bagel in the second set against Osorio and that type of inconsistency at this stage of a Grand Slam is a red flag. Potapova.
Best Bet: Potapova WIN