Philadelphia and Orlando finished with the same 45-37 record, but Philly’s 2-1 win of the season series sees them host this 7-8 play-in game. A couple of straightforward wins over Indiana and Milwaukee made it a pleasant last couple of games for Nick Nurse’s men. It’s been another injury-shaken season for Philadelphia and that’s carried through to the play-in tournament, with Joel Embiid out after having appendectomy surgery last week. That’s a terrible outcome for Philadelphia, who have just a -2.5 net rating without the former MVP on the floor this season, meaning a lot of pressure will be on Tyrese Maxey. The star guard has had an excellent offensive season and has had scattered help from the likes of Paul George, VJ Edgecombe and Quentin Grimes, but the reality is that this Philly team finished (narrowly) in the bottom half of the league in both offence and defence, and they’ll need to be better than that to advance to the playoffs on Thursday.
Orlando received a real scare last week as star forward Franz Wagner hobbled into the locker room with an apparent knee injury. He was able to come back to play his team’s final two regular season games, although his performances were below his usual lofty standard, casting some doubt over his level of impact ahead of Thursday’s contest. Missing 48 games this season, Wagner’s absence was a big part of their struggles, which saw them finish with a -0.1 net rating, despite an aggressive trade for Desmond Bane in the offseason. Bane has lived up to expectations in Florida, but an underwhelming season from Paolo Banchero has limited Orlando’s offence this season, but they have the chance to put those struggles behind them by progressing to the playoffs with a win on Thursday.
It will be a disaster for Orlando if their season ends against an Embiid-less Philadelphia team and I expect them to come out on top. The visitors will be able to put a lot of defensive pressure on Maxey, and Philly simply don’t have the offensive firepower without Embiid to make Orlando pay for that. Maxey has also struggled this season without Embiid, with a net rating of -1.7 in 1700 minutes, and I will be surprised if he can overcome that in such a high-stakes contest.
The Clippers produced a historic turnaround in their regular season, turning an 11-21 start into a 42-40 record to finish in the #9 seed. It was the play of Kawhi Leonard that got them there, averaging 28 points, six rebounds and four assists in what was the best shooting year of his career, with a 62.9% TS%. Bennedict Mathurin and Darius Garland also made positive contributions as mid-season trade acquisitions, but the team’s 19th-ranked defence, after being third-best in the league last season, leaves them vulnerable as a postseason team. An aging Brook Lopez is now their defensive cornerstone and while the likes of Derrick Jones Jr and Kris Dunn can provide some perimeter resistance, I am rather pessimistic on LA’s postseason chances.
Golden State stumbled into the play-in tournament with a 37-45 record, surviving what was an injury-cursed and forgetful regular season. Steph Curry missed 39 games, Jimmy Butler tore his ACL 38 games in and Kristaps Porziņģis played just 15 games after being traded for in-season. Brandin Podziemski was their most reliable player from a health perspective, playing in all 82 games, but his role will be significantly reduced now that Curry is back in action. It’s been a solid return from injury, averaging 20 points on 60.9% eFG% in the four games that he has played, and he’s going to need to take that form and more into Thursday’s game.
These teams met on the final day of the regular season, with LA winning 115-110, but that game featured no Leonard and both teams’ rotations were loose, with little to play for on either side. Thursday’s encounter will be of much higher intensity and that favours Golden State. Porziņģis has found his feet after again battling illness and Curry has had some time off to further his rehab, and I have questions about LA’s ability to defend this duo. Leonard will get his points, but I don’t expect the hosts to be able to get enough stops in the clutch, and that makes Golden State good value here.