US Basketball Tips & Preview | Sunday 26 April

US Basketball Tips & Preview | Sunday 26 April

Phoenix
vs
Oklahoma City
Sunday, 7:40am
Phoenix +9.5 ($1.90)

Phoenix were outclassed again on Thursday as they fell to a 107-120 defeat in Game 2. They were somewhat competitive in the first half, heading into the main break trailing 56-65, but Oklahoma City put their foot down in the third quarter with a 20-35 period and that effectively sealed the game by three-quarter time. It was an improved offensive performance after their Game 1 shocker, with Phoenix this time posting a 109.2 offensive rating, but they again had no answers on the defensive end as Oklahoma City got plenty of open looks and eventually strolled to victory. Dillon Brooks was the standout for the visitors, recording 30 points and six rebounds before fouling out, while Royce O’Neal hit his shots on his way to 16 points, nine rebounds, four assists and two steals. Devin Booker had an up-and-down performance, with 22 points and four assists on a decent shooting night, but his five turnovers ended up hurting Phoenix, as did Jalen Green’s 8/23 shooting.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dominated in Game 2, posting 37 points and nine assists on 63.9% TS%. Chet Holmgren also had some brilliant moments, including three blocks in the third quarter alone to finish the night with 19 points, eight rebounds, and four rejections, but perhaps the biggest story to come out of the game was another hamstring injury suffered by Jalen Williams. The star forward left the game in the third quarter, clutching at his hamstring that has already seen him miss some time this season and he will likely be out for at least the remainder of this series. That will likely result in more minutes for the likes of Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and Ajay Mitchell, and while that isn’t a huge concern in this series for Oklahoma City, they will be eager to get Williams back should they progress to the second round.

It’s a near certainty that Oklahoma City does exactly that and even as the series shifts to Phoenix on Sunday, it’s hard to see them dropping a game in this matchup. However, Phoenix has been competitive enough in large stretches of play and with this game being their first of the series at home, I’m expecting an energised performance that will help them keep this game close. Phoenix recorded a 108-105 win over OKC in this building in January and they will give them a good test on Sunday.

Atlanta
vs
New York
Sunday, 10:10am
New York -2.5 ($1.98)

Atlanta pulled off another stunning victory on Friday, with the late-game heroics of CJ McCollum again getting them over the line in a 109-108 victory. The hosts led by as many as 18 points towards the end of the second quarter, but New York managed to work their way back into the contest to take the lead with a minute to play. However, some big defensive possessions from Atlanta kept them within reach and CJ McCollum hit the go-ahead midrange fade away to put Atlanta up by one point with 12 seconds on the clock. A double-team on Jalen Brunson then forced a turnover in NY’s final offensive possession to win Atlanta the game and put them up 2-1 in what has been a riveting series so far. McCollum has been the talk of the series and he dropped another 23 points on Friday, while Jalen Johnson had his best game yet with 24 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists and two steals to lead Atlanta’s charge. Jonathan Kuminga was again energetic off the bench with 21 points, and Dyson Daniels had some big defensive plays and rebounds, finishing with eight points, 13 boards, six assists and three steals.

New York will be starting to feel the pressure now as they face a crucial Game 4 on Sunday. It was a poor shooting night from the visitors that ultimately cost them this game, as they went just 10/35 from deep and recorded a 48.4% eFG%, with Josh Hart in particular struggling from the floor. The forward recorded just two points on 1/9 shooting and the likes of Miles McBride, Jordan Clarkson and Mikal Bridges all had bad offensive game, with Bridges clocking just 21 minutes of game time, including just four minutes in the second half. Karl-Anthony Towns had another strong night with 21 points, 17 rebounds and two blocks and OG Anunoby shot well for his team-high 29 points and nine rebounds. Jalen Brunson had 26 points and four assists, but the team’s role players weren’t able to make an impact, making for back-to-back losses for NY.

I am backing a desperate New York team to get the job done in Game 4, with Mike Brown hinting at some changes to the starting lineup and the rotation. They will find the defensive answers to slow down McCollum and that will put NY in the box seat, making them the bet as slim favourites.

Minnesota
vs
Denver
Sunday, 12:40pm
Under 229.5 ($1.92)

Minnesota made it consecutive wins over Denver on Friday in a 113-96 victory. Now up 2-1 in the series, it was another impressive defensive showing from the hosts, who held Nikola Jokić to just 7/26 shooting from the floor, with Rudy Gobert dominating that matchup. The Frenchman finished as a +18 in his 36 minutes, recording 10 points, 12 rebounds, and the blocks, but much of his work wasn’t apparent on the box score, as he completely stifled Denver’s offence, helping his team to a 96.9 defensive rating. Ayo Dosunmu was the other standout with 25 points and nine assists, as he was made to be the lead guard for much of the second half after Anthony Edwards limped off the floor. Jaden McDaniels posted 20 points and 10 rebounds in a strong two-way game and Donte DiVincenzo also had his moments with 15 points, seven assists and four steals.

Denver are going to need to find the offensive answers if they are to advance from this series, after Jokić was made to look second-rate again on Friday. The big man did finish with 27 points and 15 rebounds, but it came on just 43.8% TS%, with four turnovers also in the mix. Jamal Murray was also clamped up, with just 16 points on 39.8% TS%, and the likes of Cameron Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr and Christian Braun were all unable to make an impact. Zeke Nnaji had some moments of success with 10 points, but there were few things for Denver to smile about in this contest.

I am picking a similarly scrappy game on Sunday, with both teams set to really lean into their defensive identities. Edwards may be limited by injury and Gobert will look to repeat his defensive heroics against Jokić, making the under the play again.