Oklahoma City came into the season as defending champions and title favourites and they lived up to expectations in the regular season, finishing with a league-best 64-18 record to be the market’s pick heading into the playoffs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may well be in line for another MVP award after leading his team to the #1 seed again with 31.1 points per game on an absurdly efficient 66.5% TS%. The superstar guard was incredibly consistent all season and despite Jalen Williams missing over half of the regular season and constant injuries to the likes of Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso. The team is fully healthy heading into the playoffs and that’s an encouraging sign, especially on the defensive end, where they are well-equipped for another dominant run. With a league-best 107.3 defensive rating this season, OKC will be relying on their efforts on that end of the floor if they’re to win another championship.
Phoenix produced an impressive, high-energy showing in Saturday’s play-in game to beat Golden State 111-96. It was an elite defensive effort from Phoenix in this game, with their relentless ball pressure forcing Golden State into 20 turnovers, which never allowed the visitors’ offence to get into rhythm. A 33-15 first quarter from Phoenix set the tone and while Golden State trimmed the margin to five points by halftime, a 13-1 third quarter run from the hosts got them back comfortably on top to lead to the win. Jalen Green couldn’t miss, finishing with 36 points, four assists, two steals and three blocks while shooting 14/20 from the floor, while Jordan Goodwin picked up six steals alongside 19 points and nine rebounds in an important contribution. Devin Booker hit all 10 of his free throw attempts for 20 points and eight assists to give Phoenix another offensive boost, helping them get over the line.
Phoenix will try to replicate that defensive success in this series with Oklahoma City and will try to put as much pressure as possible on SGA and Williams. Just how effective that will be, given OKC’s depth, is likely limited, but they will make the hosts work for their wins and with the line well into the double figures on Monday, I am happy to take Phoenix here. Brooks and Goodwin will do all they can to get under OKC’s skin and while it may not work all series, I expect them to disturb the defending champs enough here to make it a close finish.
Best
Phoenix +14.5 ($1.83)
Series Bet
Oklahoma City 4-1 ($2.50)
Detroit finished an excellent regular season with a 60-22 record to finish as the first seed in the East. Their success was built on their defence, with their energy and discipline combining to form the second-best defence in the league, while Cade Cunningham led the charge on the offensive end. The big guard was excellent offensively, averaging 23.9 points and 9.9 assists per game, and Jalen Duren emerged as his running mate, with the pair earning All-Star honours. Duren had 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game this season, and with the team getting great contributions from the likes of Tobias Harris, Isaiah Stewart, Ausar Thompson and Daniss Jenkins when called upon, Detroit recorded just their third 60-win season in franchise history.
Orlando bullied their way into the playoffs with a 121-90 humiliation of Charlotte. A 38-16 first quarter laid the foundations for the hosts and there was no letting up from there, with the lead at halftime expanding out to 68-37. From there, Orlando did well to keep on top of Charlotte and not let them back into the game, as Paolo Banchero continued to be a wrecking ball on his way to 25 points and six assists. It was a huge improvement from him after the disappointment of the 7-8 game, and the same goes for Franz Wagner who recorded 18 points, seven rebounds and six assists. Wendell Carter Jr, Anthony Black and Jalen Suggs produced important defensive performances to keep the pressure on Charlotte, seeing the team finish with an excellent 89.9 defensive rating to win the game and qualify for the playoffs.
There is plenty of excitement around this Detroit team, as there should be as the #1 seeds, but I am still hesitant about their offence in the postseason. While Orlando don’t serve up the toughest of defence, we saw what they can do when they turn things up on Saturday, and they will bring a similar intensity to Little Caesars Arena which will make Detroit’s offence bumpy. Similarly, Orlando are going to have a hard time scoring against the league’s #2 defence and I think we will see a lot of very low scoring games in this series, starting with the opener.
Best
Under 218.5 ($1.95)
Series Bet
Series Most Points — Desmond Bane ($11)
San Antonio were one of the surprise packages of the season, dominating almost all comers to end the season with a 62-20 record and the second seed. Rapid rises from Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, especially on the defensive end, are what got them there, forming a formidable defensive combination to see the team end the season with the third-best defence in the league. Wembanyama was the anchor, averaging 3.1 blocks per game, along with 25 points and 11.5 rebounds to see him land firmly in the MVP conversation. Castle was often handed the key perimeter defensive responsibility, while the likes of De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Keldon Johnson, Luke Kornet and Dylan Harper all proved to be very reliable parts of the equation.
Portland forced their way into the playoffs with a thrilling 114-110 win over Phoenix in the 7-8 game. It was a well-earned road win from Portland, as Deni Avdija starred in a 41-point effort. The big forward finished with a 74% TS% and added 12 assists and two blocks in a dominant night, as Donovan Clingan and Jrue Holiday held things down defensively, with the big man recording a team-high three blocks. Jerami Grant returned from injury to provide 16 points in 19 minutes and Scoot Henderson had a solid 17 minutes, with nine points, two assists, two steals and one block, but it was all Avdija and Grant down the stretch who were able to get Portland home and into the playoffs as the seventh seed.
This is a very difficult matchup for Portland, specifically because Wembanyama is going to shut down Avdija’s drives to the rim. That takes away the visitors’ #1 offensive weapon and, without that, I can’t see Portland getting far. The occasional hot shooting night might get them a win in this series, but I can’t see it coming on the road in the opener, and I am picking a blowout on Monday.
Best
San Antonio -10.5 ($1.87)
Series Bet
Series Most Threes Made — Julian Champagnie ($10)