Super Rugby Pacific Round 11 | Tips & Preview

The Crusaders suffered another defeat last week, losing to the Force 26-31 to drop to a 4-5 record this season. That has them in sixth on the ladder, and it was clear last week just how much they’re missing the likes of Will Jordan, David Havili, Ethan Blackadder, and Codie Taylor, as they threw away a 19-0 lead to fall behind in the 70th minute, and they weren’t able to recover from there. There was a bit of controversy in the final five minutes as Macca Springer’s try was denied by the TMO due to a knock-on in the lead-up, but it’s fair to say the Crusaders didn’t deserve to win this game, as they barely generated scoring opportunities in the Forces’ territory. The visitors only had five entries into the Force’s 22 and were outscored four tries to five, with their lineout causing some issues and the Force’s tight five largely having it their way. Springer looked like the Crusaders’ most dangerous weapon when in space on attack, while Dom Gardiner got through a ton of work with a team-high 15 carries and 19 tackles to lead the forward pack. Leicester Fainga’anuku and Dallas McLeod also had some impressive carries and Christian Lio-Willie worked hard, but this Crusaders team is lacking X-Factor at the moment without their stars.

The Waratahs were made to work hard last week against Moana Pasifika, falling into a 7-14 hole early on before responding with four unanswered tries for a 29-14 win. New South Wales definitely had their chances throughout the game, but were generally sloppy until late in the piece, when Isaac Kailea scored in the 52nd minute to then bring on a barrage of scoring from the hosts. Sid Harvey dived over in the corner 15 minutes later for his second try of the night, before Folau Fainga’a crashed over on the back of a line-out drive to seal the game after the hooter. That final try gave the Tahs the bonus-point win, and while it was a rather frustrating watch for their fans after a lot of botched attacks, it was a deserved win for the hosts as they dominated at set piece and enjoyed 58% possession on the night. It was the forwards who did most of the hard work, with the likes of Joey Walton, Miles Amatosero, Pete Samu, and Matt Philip getting stuck in on both sides of the ball. Harvey and Max Jorgensen had some incisive runs out wide, but this was very much a game won by the big men, and they will be called on again to repeat that task on Friday night.

The Crusaders have thrown in a surprise selection, naming Fainga’anuku an openside flanker this week, while Taylor and Braydon Ennor return from injury. In their first game at their new home stadium, the red and blacks will be looking for a statement win and they’re going to get just that against a mediocre NSW outfit. The Tahs’ defence has been poor against top-half teams this season and they are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games and will be well beaten on Friday.

Best
Crusaders -16.5 ($1.90)

Value
Crusaders 21-30 ($4.00)

Try Scorer
Sevu Reece ($8.75 First, $1.64 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Crusaders -16.5 / Sevu Reece Try / Folau Fainga’a Try ($10.13)

The Hurricanes’ five-game win streak came to an end last week in a thrilling golden point 17-20 defeat to the Chiefs. In perhaps the best game of the season so far, the Hurricanes got out to a strong start through a Josh Moorby try, before Peter Lakai scored moments before half-time for a 12-3 lead. The Chiefs hit back shortly into the second half, but the Canes remained in front and got seven points clear when Asafo Aumua barged over the line for a 17-10 lead with 20 minutes to play. However, it was a sloppy 20 minutes from the Hurricanes, and that opened the door for the Chiefs to strike back and force golden point, where Wallace Sititi came up as the hero for the hosts, collecting a charged-down drop goal attempt to score under the posts. It came in another great defensive effort from Clark Laidlaw’s men, but this time their attack looked less confident as they were denied opportunities and often were unable to get the ball out wide in space. Isaia Walker-Leawere was again huge defensively, and Jordie Barrett got through a tonne of work in the midfield with 18 tackles and 13 carries. Du’Plessis Kirifi also had a standout game but the Canes’ 17 turnovers did them no favours, often costing them of genuine attacking opportunities.

The Brumbies came out on the wrong side of history last Saturday as they fell to a 28-33 loss to the Fijian Drua. It was just the second-ever away win for the Drua, and the Brumbies had no right losing this game, going into the contest as 25.5-point favourites. Nick Frost made it a good start for ACT, scoring inside the opening 15 minuts, however, the Brumbies quickly fell behind in the Australian capital as Manasa Mataele scored a double to put the visitors in front, before Isaac Fines-Leleiwasa made it a 15-point buffer at halftime. Before long, the Drua had built a 14-30 lead, and while the Brumbies got a couple of quick tries to get back within two points of the visitors, they could never regain the lead, seeing them drop a game that they would have circled as a sure-fire win. The Brumbies’ attacking execution was awful, scoring just four tries from their 14 entries into the Drua’s 22, with a shockingly bad 29 turnovers shooting themselves in the foot. Rob Valetini ran hard, as always, and the likes of Ollie Sapsford and Corey Toole had a couple of line breaks to keep the Brumbies moving forward. However, their red zone execution on attack was awful, meaning the hosts were unable to make enough ground on the scoreboard and forcing them to accept defeat.

It’s a steady Hurricanes backline, while in the forwards, Brayden Iose, Caleb Delany and Tevita Mafileo come in off the bench. There are minimal changes for the Brumbies too, with Andy Muirhead and Rory Scott coming into the starting lineup, and that sets us up for an exciting showdown. Both teams have not been afraid to move the ball this season and under the roof in Christchurch, I am expecting plenty of scoring. The over is 9-3 in the Brumbies’ last 12 games and 3-1 in the Canes’ last four.

Best
Over 62.5 ($1.90)

Value
Power Plays — Both Teams to Score a Try in the First 10 Minutes (00:00 – 10:00) ($10)

Try Scorer
Cam Roigard ($11 First, $1.88 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Cam Roigard Try / Brayden Iose Try / Ryan Lonergan Try ($15.86)

The Blues held on for a 47-40 win over the Highlanders last week to improve to 6-2. Now, third in the standings, the Blues gave themselves a fright late in the contest, allowing the Highlanders to score the game’s final two tries to turn a 21-point Blues lead into just a seven-point buffer with two minutes on the clock. The Landers then worked their way into Blues territory with the chance to tie the game, but the hosts’ defence did the job to close out the win. It was a huge effort from the forward pack in the victory, with Hoskins Sotutu impressing again, while Sam Darry, Dalton Papali’i and Bradley Slater getting involved in the nitty gritty. Beauden Barrett led his backs well and put the Blues in the right parts of the ground, but this win was earned by the forwards.

The Reds would have enjoyed their week off after recording a 31-26 victory over the Crusaders in Round 9. It was a much-needed win for Queensland, after their embarrassing loss to the Force the week prior, and they looked comfortable throughout after quickly responding to the Crusaders’ opening try and leading from then on. It was fitting that Fraser McReight open the scoring with the flanker having another heavily involved game, while Carter Gordon recorded Queensland’s second try as he won the foot race to a loose ball to make it a 14-5 lead less than 20 minutes into the contest. Tim Ryan then scored almost immediately after halftime to extend Queensland’s lead to 7 points, and although the Crusaders got back on level terms, a hot finish from the Reds that got them over the line. Filipo Daugunu scored in his 100th Super Rugby game to put the Reds up 24-19, then Louis Werchon put the nail in the coffin, scooping up a Crusaders error and running three-quarters of the field to score. McReight was everywhere and Lukhan Salakaia-Loto got involved plenty in the carry, in defence and at ruck time to be a real enforcer. Kalani Thomas and Werchon formed a great halfback pairing and Josh Flook made the most of his touches, recording a couple of line breaks.

Vern Cotter has named a relatively stable 23 this week, with Codemeru Vai being the biggest out, while the Reds will be without the injured Gordon. Harry McLaughlin-Phillips takes his spot at first five-eighth, coming in as a very handy backup, and the Reds are well-equipped to go toe-to-toe with the Reds in this clash. Their big forward pack matches up well with that of the Aucklanders’ and the likes of Daugunu and Ryan give them proper weapons out wide. This game will be closer than the market is picking.

Best
Reds +9.5 ($1.90)

Value
Reds ($3.70)

Try Scorer
Filipo Daugunu ($13 First, $2.15 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Reds +9.5 / Filipo Daugunu Try / Hoskins Sotutu Try ($10.53)

The Highlanders made things interesting in their showdown with the Blues last week, but ultimately ran out of time in a 40-47 defeat. Trailing 26-47 with less than 10 minutes to play, it looked like a big win for the hosts was on the cards, however, Tanielu Tele’a crossed the chalk, and moments later Finn Hurley bolted up the field to get the Highlanders back into the Blues’ 22, seeing Soane Vikena barge over, making it a 7-point game with 2 minutes to play. The visitors then got back into the Blues’ 22 but Adam Lennox spilled a difficult pass to end the game and see the Landers come up just short. It was a tough ending for the halfback, considering how good he was throughout the 80 minutes, making darting runs, generating quick ball for his backs and pulling the strings well. Timoci Tavatavanawai was unstoppable again, Lucas Casey was a livewire off the bench and the second row pairing of TK Howden and Mitch Dunshea defended well.

Moana Pasifika fell to their eighth loss of the season last week with a 14-29 defeat to the Waratahs. It was another promising start for Moana, who scored the game’s first try through Melani Matavao, who recorded a double by the 20-minute mark for a 14-7 lead. Still with the lead at halftime, there were promising signs for Moana, but things started to fall away in the second half, starting with a yellow card to Tom Savage which came at the same time as New South Wales’ third try of the night. This somewhat opened the floodgates and saw the Tahs run in two more tries to hand MP another defeat, as they now find themselves firmly at the bottom of the standings. It was another flat attacking display from the visitors, with just six entries into the Waratahs’ 22, and that was the result of having just 42% possession and 38% territory. Their lineout was also shaky, but there were some standout performers, including Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa, William Havili and Solomon Alaimalo.

Tomas Lavanini, Jonah Lowe and Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens are all returning from injury for the Highlanders, but Jona Nareki, Caleb Tangitau and Hurley have all been listed on the injury report, somewhat balancing out the aforementioned returns. That’s not ideal preparation for this contest and while the Landers will come out of this one on top, I am not expecting the tidiest game of footy. Highlanders games have typically been scrappy this season, with six of nine hitting the under, and five of Moana’s last eight have also gone under the total.

Best
Under 66.5 ($1.92)

Value
Power Plays — Highlanders to Lead at Halftime by 1 – 10 & Win by 11 – 20 ($6.00)

Try Scorer
Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens ($11 First, $1.80 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Under 66.5 / Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens Try / Veveni Lasaqa Try ($10.31)

The Chiefs sent a statement to the rest of competition last Saturday as they defeated the Hurricanes 20-17 in a golden-point thriller. Wallace Sititi was the hero as he collected a charged down drop goal attempt from Damian McKenzie in the extra period and crashed over the try line to win the game for the hosts, capping off a riveting top-of-the-table clash. There were moments when the Chiefs were under a lot of pressure, especially in the first half, where the Hurricanes scored two tries for a 3-12 halftime lead. However, Simon Parker bullied his way over the line less than 10 minutes into the second half, and that got the Chiefs going. To see Daniel Sinkinson level the scores and send the game to golden point, where Sititi finished the job. It was a big shift off the bench from Sititi, with his ball-running making a real impact, while Samisoni Taukei’aho had a standout showing in his hour on the park. Damian McKenzie looked back to near his best with some crucial runs and touches from first five-eighth and he did well in unlocking Kyren Taumoefolau and Leroy Carter to make regular dents in the Hurricanes’ defence.

The Fijian Drua pulled off the biggest Super Rugby upset in over four years, beating the Brumbies 33-28 in Canberra last Saturday. The last time we saw an underdog of more than 25 points win a game was in March 2022, when Moana Pasifika (+27.5) beat the Hurricanes 24-19, and the Drua followed in their footsteps by going blow-for-blow with the Brumbies in the early goings, before Manasa Mataele scored a quick-fire double, including a 60-metre intercept try, to put the Drua up 15-7 inside the first 30 minutes. Issak Fines-Leleiwasa then darted over off a quick tap to make it 22-7 at halftime and the visitors led all the way from there, with Simione Kuruvoli scoring off a pinpoint cross-kick from Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula to extend the lead to 16 points, and the Drua’s defence held on from there for a famous win. Armstrong-Ravula was rock solid for the draw and was the most important piece of this victory, steering his team around the field expertly, while Kitione Salawa defended relentlessly and Kuruvoli stood out with three line breaks, but it was an elite and cohesive effort from the entire squad that resulted in this upset win.

There are plenty of changes to the Chiefs squad this week, with Taukei’aho, Luke Jacobson and Semipeni Finau all out, while the likes of Tupou Vaa’i, Sititi and Jahrome Brown come into the starting team. The Drua have also made a host of changes, including welcoming Frank Lomani and Haereiti Hetet back from injury, and that’s going to help them in their quest to pick up another big scalp. However, they’re huge underdogs again in this clash and I expect them to leak plenty of points against a very good Chiefs team. The Drua will also get their fair share of points, making the over very appealing here.

Best
Over 65.5 ($1.90)

Value
Power Plays — Leroy Carter & Quinn Tupaea Both 1st Half Try Scorers ($7.00)

Try Scorer
Quinn Tupaea ($12 First, $1.95 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Quinn Tupaea Try / Taniela Rakuro Try / Damian McKenzie Try ($12.11)