Super Rugby Pacific Round 4 | Tips & Preview

The Chiefs were made to look second-rate in a 33-43 loss at home against the Crusaders last week. In a rematch of last year’s final, the Chiefs were fancied against a Crusaders team that was 0-2 through the first two rounds, and the way the hosts started the game, it looked like they were well on their way to a win. Quinn Tupaea scored in the opening minutes before Etene Nanai-Seturo finished off an amazing length-of-the-field try from the hosts to give them a 14-0 lead inside the opening 10 minutes. At 21-7 in the 23rd minute, things remained comfy for the hosts, but the Crusaders went on a rampage from there, scoring the next five tries for a 21-41 lead and the Chiefs were never able to recover. It was a shaky scrum that seemed to really put the hosts under pressure, while their ball security left a lot to be desired, committing 22 turnovers. Simon Parker worked hard at the breakdown and Jared Proffit was a workhorse on defence, while the back three of Nanai-Seturo, Leroy Carter and Emoni Narawa were dangerous when they got some space and Josh Lord had some good moments up front.

Moana Pasifika were unable to deliver a win in their first home game of the season, losing to the Force 19-35. After their Round 1 victory in Lautoka, things have only gone downhill for Tana Umaga’s team, with Friday’s loss to WA coming on the back of a flat performance. It was again MP’s defence that let them down, and the 7-35 scoreline heading into the final 10 minutes of play was probably a more accurate reflection of how one-sided this game was. Their set piece struggled again and their execution when they had scoring opportunities was not up to scratch, recording just two line breaks on the night. Solomon Alaimalo had one of them and looked like MP’s most threatening player with ball in hand, while Patrick Pellegrini got himself involved often from first five-eighth. Allan Craig and Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa were the busiest up front, but many others failed to show up.

The Chiefs have named a very strong team for this game and that spells trouble for the visitors. The returns of Damian McKenzie and Cortez Ratima make this a very imposing back line and it’s hard to see Moana slowing them down. I also expect Moana Pasifika to get in on the scoring themselves and with the over having hit in seven of their last nine road games, I like the over.

Best
Over 67.5 ($1.90)

Value
Power Plays — Any Winger (Jersey No. 11 or 14) 1st Try Scorer & Over 67.5 Total Match Points ($6.00)

The Waratahs enjoyed a week off last week after starting their season with consecutive 20+ point wins. Their 36-12 victory over the Reds in Round 1 was followed up by a 36-13 win over the Fijian Drua, which would have meant spirits were high heading into the bye. It was a big second half that got them the win over the Drua, scoring four tries for a 22-3 second half, as Max Jorgensen continued his hot start to the season with a double. The young outside back scored a double, the first of which being another great individual effort, to help his team get another bonus point win, and NSW could have won by more with their 12 entries into the Drua’s 22. The Tahs’ set piece was rock solid and while their ball security was questionable, with 22 turnovers, they were dangerous enough on attack to make the visitors pay. Outside of Jorgensen, skipper Matt Philip had an industrious night and Lawson Creighton was solid again at first five. Former Crusader Ioane Moananu scored a double off the bench and Joey Walton had some nice touches.

The Hurricanes were the latest team to suffer an unexpected loss in Fiji, last week losing to the Drua 20-25 in Lautoka. As 12.5-point favourites, few would have been picking the Canes to drop this game, but the wet and humid conditions in Lautoka made it hard for attacking rugby, and the visitors were particularly sloppy despite having 12 entries into the Drua’s 22, with 25 turnovers across the span of the 80 minutes. Their defence was also a little sloppy, with just an 82% tackle completion %, despite some big efforts from Asafo Aumua, Devan Flanders and Peter Lakai on that side of the ball. Josh Moorby and Billy Proctor looked like the most dangerous of the backs, but there were few clear-cut opportunities especially in the second half.

The Waratahs’ run of home games continues to start their season but by far their toughest challenge is upon them on Friday night. Folau Fainga’a and Andrew Kellaway come into the team, but that’s not going to be enough to get them over the line against this Hurricanes team that will be desperate for a win after last week’s shock loss. The Hurricanes have won eight on the trot against NSW and will win well in Sydney.

Best
Hurricanes -2.5 ($1.90)

Value
Hurricanes 1-12 ($2.90)

The Highlanders were well beaten 14-31 by the Reds last weekend, making it a rough drop in form after an impressive first couple of games. After a win over the Crusaders and then after pushing the Chiefs, the Landers were looking like a force, but they couldn’t replicate that form in their first road game of the season. A couple of tries from the hosts inside the opening 30 minutes put the Highlanders on the back foot and although a strong start to the second half and a try to Lucas Casey got the Highlanders within five points, it was all Queensland from then on to see the Landers fall to 0-2. An 82% tackle completion % did not help the visitors and they looked toothless on attack, recording just four line breaks across the game. TK Howden continued his impressive start to the season, racking up the carries and recording 12 tackles, while his fellow loosies Casey and Sean Withy also stayed busy, but their backs, outside of Timoci Tavatavanawai often failed to make a dent in Queensland’s defence.

The Force picked up their first win of the season and ended an eight-game winless run, dating back to last season, in a 35-19 win over Moana Pasifika last Friday. It was a convincing performance from Simon Cron’s men, with a couple of Moana tries in the final 10 minutes sweetening the scoreline for the hosts in what was otherwise a dominant game from the Force, showcased by their 35-7 lead at the 70-minute mark. The visitors had the better of the set piece, with their lineout and scrum showing their strength, but their defence was perhaps their most impressive aspect. Hamish Stewart was a workhorse in the midfield with 15 tackles, and Darcy Swain led the forwards with 13. The real standout was again Vaiolini Ekuasi though, as he tackled strongly and took carry after carry to keep Moana on the back foot in crucial passages, continuing what’s been an excellent start to the season for the No.8. Darby Lancaster opened the scoring and was dangerous all night long, as was George Bridge, who bombed a try before redeeming himself only minutes later.

The inclusions of Nick Champion de Crespigny and Brandon Paenga-Amosa are huge for the Force, while the Highlanders will be without Casey and will have Withy on the bench. That makes the visitors a real chance in this game, with their pack set to have some fun in Dunedin, making them value as big outsiders.

Best
Force +9.5 ($1.95)

Value
Force ($3.70)

The Blues let a good chance of a road win slip on Saturday, losing to the Brumbies 27-30. Up 27-18 heading into the final 10 minutes of play, the visitors were certainly in the box seat, but an intentional knock-on from Stephen Perofeta let to his sin-binning, resulting in a late collapse. It took less than a minute for the Brumbies to capitalise with a try before winning the game after the hooter with another five-pointer. The hosts probably did deserve to win the match, but the Blues will feel like they should have come out on top give the position they were in at the 70-minute mark, looking the more dangerous of the two teams with ball in hand. Caleb Clarke often threatened and was rewarded with two tries, while Cody Vai impressed off the bench with some dangerous touches. Sam Darry got through plenty of work, with 19 tackles and 11 carries, but it wasn’t rewarded with a win as the Blues faded late.

The Crusaders recorded a dramatic reversal in form last week to beat the Chiefs 43-33 in Hamilton. After Round 2’s disastrous 24-50 loss to the Brumbies at home, it was hard to see the Crusaders getting a win against the competition favourites last Saturday, and they looked like they were heading for a heavy loss early on, as the hosts scored two tries in the opening 10 minutes for a 0-14 lead. However, the Crusaders found some energy after that, as George Bell opened the scoring, and as Noah Hotham and Christian Lio-Willie followed suit shortly after, the visitors took a 24-21 lead into the break. As Lio-Willie recorded his hattrick with 15 minutes to play, the Crusaders found themselves up 43-21 and there was no coming back for the Chiefs, making for a hugely impressive and important win for the defending champions.

This blockbuster Kiwi derby is another mouthwatering Saturday night clash, and I expect it to go down to the wire. The return of Beauden Barrett off the bench is the big team news for the Blues, while Rivez Reihana comes into the fold for the visitors. That’s a good boost in a position where they don’t have much depth, but the Crusaders are going to win this game up front where they will enjoy superiority over the Blues’ forwards. The hosts are going to struggle at set piece and will lose plenty of ball through that, and that’s going to give the Crusaders the advantage in this contest, making them my bet.

Best
Crusaders -0.5 ($1.90)

Value
Crusaders 1-12 ($1.90)

The Brumbies kept their undefeated start to the season in tack by the skin of their teeth last week, with Charlie Cale scoring the game-winning try after the hooter last week for a 30-27 win over the Blues. It was a dramatic final 10 minutes which saw a yellow card to the Blues, as ACT trailed 18-27, only for the hosts to capitalise almost immediately with a try through Luke Reimer before the Brumbies won a penalty deep in their own half moments and went on to make their way up the field, setting up Cale’s match-winner. It was another impressive outing from the big No.8, while his partner in crime Rob Valetini was tireless in the carry. It was another big defensive night from Rory Scott while Tane Edmed had an impactful final 15 minutes off the bench to help get the Brumbies the win.

The Reds recorded a much-needed 31-14 win over the Highlanders last week, bouncing back from their horror loss to the Waratahs in the opening round. It would have been a long bye week after that defeat to their New South Wales foes, but they looked all the better for it as they controlled the game for almost all of the 80 minutes after Fraser McReight opened the scoring with a thrilling try that came on the back of an under-the-legs pass and two kicks. Matt Faessler made it a 12-0 lead shortly after and Tim Ryan’s try five minutes before the break saw the Reds head into the break up 19-7. The visitors were the first to score in the second half but Queensland snuffed out any hope of a comeback with two tries in five minutes to secure the win. There were multiple standouts for the hosts in the bonus point win, with McReight getting stuck into a lot of the gritty work and winning plenty of ball for his team, Joe Brial looking threatening on attack and Ryan and Hunter Paisami looking particularly dangerous.

After a good showing last week, the Reds will be wanting to take that form down to Canberra, and that is going to result in a fast-flowing game in the Australian capital. Both teams have shown the willingness to run and spread the ball through the first few rounds of the season, and that’s going to contribute to a high-scoring game. All three of the Brumbies’ games this season have hit the over and I expect that trend to continue.

Best
Over 55.5 ($1.90)

Value
Over 66.5 ($3.20)