The Toyota Center in Houston hosts a compelling Middleweight main event this Sunday, as former UFC champion Sean Strickland takes on surging contender Anthony Hernandez.
Strickland has once again made headlines in the lead-up, but a victory here would firmly place him back in the title conversation against a dangerous and in-form opponent.
While the headline bout commands attention, there are several intriguing matchups across the card. Below are our analysis and betting selections for the event.
Sean Strickland remains one of the UFC’s most polarising figures, but there is no denying his credentials inside the Octagon.
He stunned the MMA world with a dominant win over Israel Adesanya in Sydney in 2023 to claim the Middleweight title. Since then, he has dropped two of his past three fights — both decision losses to Dricus du Plessis, with their first encounter a closely contested split decision.
Strickland brings a 29–7 professional record into this contest and is known for his relentless forward pressure, crisp boxing combinations and durability. His style forces opponents into uncomfortable exchanges and he is rarely outworked over five rounds.
Anthony Hernandez had a mixed start to his UFC tenure after earning his contract on Dana White’s Contender Series, losing two of his first three appearances. However, he has since found outstanding form, compiling eight straight wins, including impressive finishes over Roman Kopylov, Michel Pereira and Roman Dolidze.
Hernandez is a strong submission threat, with nine of his 15 career victories coming via tap-out. That said, securing takedowns against Strickland is no easy task, and the former champion’s defensive awareness and cardio could prove decisive over five rounds.
The current head-to-head pricing appears wider than expected. With championship experience and proven durability at this level, Strickland represents value as the underdog.
Geoff Neal has been a fixture in the UFC’s welterweight division since 2017, winning his first five Octagon appearances and consistently competing against high-level opposition.
He owns knockout victories over Vicente Luque and Rafael dos Anjos in recent years and has often served as a measuring stick for emerging contenders.
Uros Medic, who also earned his opportunity via the Contender Series, holds a 6–3 UFC record. Notably, none of his nine UFC bouts have gone to the judges, highlighting his aggressive and finishing-oriented style. He enters this fight off consecutive first-round stoppages over Gilbert Urbina and Muslim Salikhov.
Both fighters possess genuine knockout power, but Neal’s experience at the elite level should help him navigate the early danger. With Medic stepping up in competition, this shapes as a bout that could extend beyond the opening exchanges.
Dan Ige remains a fan favourite thanks to his high-output striking and willingness to engage. Since accepting a short-notice bout against Diego Lopes in June 2024, he has lost three of his past four contests, though each defeat came via decision against quality opposition, including Lerone Murphy and Patricio Pitbull.
Melquizael Costa, representing the renowned Chute Boxe camp, enters with a 25–7 professional record. Since debuting in 2023, he has been highly active and carries a five-fight winning streak into this matchup, including two submissions and a first-round head-kick knockout late last year.
This promises to be an entertaining contest. Ige’s power always makes him a live chance to secure a finish, while Costa’s well-rounded skill set — particularly his ground game — adds another pathway to a stoppage result.
With both men capable of ending the fight inside the distance, this matchup shapes as one unlikely to require the judges’ scorecards.