NRL 2026 Season Preview

The Sydney Roosters enter the season as the best value play to win the premiership – and the team to beat in 2026. Last year’s Top 4 all look like take-on propositions this year. Brisbane do not look at all built to backup and now have a sense of urgency with Payne Haas walking at the end of the year. Canberra went 8-1 in one-score games and overshot their true win number by over four wins and lost their key halfback. Canterbury have major concerns at halfback and hooker. Only the ever-reliable Melbourne can be trusted and given their star fullback retired and their best forward has been ruled out for the year, they have more downside than up. Penrith have had a much better preparation heading into this year but face the toughest draw. That puts the Roosters front and centre as the standout selection. They have improved a quality roster by adding veteran Manly half Daly Cherry-Evans and NSW hooker Reece Robson and they were a much better team last year than their 13-11 record. They have an outstanding spine, depth, dynamic players out wide and a super pack. This is the year of the Roosters. Two teams worth specking at odds too are the Dolphins and Warriors. The Phins have endured a horrid run with injuries but have an outstanding roster led by one of the best packs in the game. They are ready for their first finals campaign. The Warriors have been written off by the market but they get such an easy draw they can finish in the Top 4 and that gives them a huge hope of playing their first Grand Final in 15 years.

The respective strength of schedules of the favourites to win the premiership tells a story that should build significant confidence around the Roosters finishing top of the ladder: Penrith have the most difficult draw while Melbourne and Brisbane both face a Top 5 difficult draw. The Roosters, by contrast, have the seventh easiest draw. Combined with having the highest rated roster, that makes this bet a futures play you need to have.

No need to talk up the Roosters any further other than to say it would take a horrid injury toll or some brutal luck for the Roosters to miss the Top 4. They, along with Penrith, are panels ahead of third-place in terms of roster talent and look huge odds to make the Top 4. The other two teams worth betting are Cronulla and New Zealand. The Sharks have won at least 14 games in all four seasons under Craig Fitzgibbon with two Top 4 finishes. They have the best continuity of any team with no notable team changes while they have once again been handed a top three easy draw. The Warriors are one of the more interesting teams this season. No team has been handed an easier draw and few teams have as few weaknesses as the Wahs. They may not be elite across the park but they are deep, they have talent everywhere and should improve on their sixth-placing last year. Brisbane enjoyed a sensational back half of last season but they look far from a moral to make the Top 4 again. They have a fragile pack and their ability to win games seems to rely on the inconsistent Reece Walsh. The black odds on the Broncos missing the Top 4 looks a nice play.

The price on offer for Cronulla to make the Top 8 is utter madness. The Sharks have made the finals in 12 of the last 14 seasons, have an incredibly easy draw and nearly exactly the same team that won 15 games last year. The Warriors have been gifted the Raiders draw from last year and the Sharks the year before – both easily made the Top 4. The Dolphins really have a Top 6 roster and with any change in injury luck will be playing finals football. The recruitment of Morgan Knowles is an outstanding pickup, making a very good pack even better. Parramatta have lost Zac Lomax and Dylan Brown. Once again they are reliant on the oft-injured Mitchell Moses. They don’t look to have the improvement in them to play finals football. Canberra are the clear lay team this year. Their record in close games and their true win numbers combined with the loss of Jamal Fogarty has them a very real risk of falling out of the Top 8.

Four teams are single digits for most losses but fancy bracketing both the Knights and Tigers will result in a profit. The Titans have the worst roster but finished 2.6 wins shy of their true win number last year while going 1-5 in close games. They start the season off a significantly higher base than Newcastle. The Dragons will get too much out of the start of the season under Shane Flanagan to be the worst team. The Knights were legitimately bad and have not really improved their roster this year. Justin Holbrook is a good coach but has hit work cut out for him. The Tigers won three straight spoons before elevating last year. Their off-field behaviour has repressed though and with a bottom four draw and being highly unlikely of repeating last year’s injury luck, they are spoon contenders again.

The Roosters are highly fancied this year as argued above but this is the pick of the bets. Trent Robinson’s team benefit from starting from a higher base than their final position suggests last year, have purchased to improve sharply and benefit from a middling draw. They look to be the best NSW team in the best situation.

Taking flyers here on two teams who are over the odds across the board. The Dolphins have endured a two-year run with one of the worst injury tolls in history so have significant upside. No team arguably has a better pack. The Warriors are incredibly deep and will do much better than the market suggests. The Raiders are a huge lay team as noted above. Brisbane aren’t nearly as good as the market suggests. Melbourne are the big worry in this one as they are a consistent Top 4 team but they may take a step backwards this year with Ryan Papenhuyzen retiring and Eli Katoa out for the year.

Mark Nawaqaitawase was a shock winner last year but backup winners are rare so looking elsewhere. The ageless Daniel Tupou looks the pick of the favourites with 40 tries in his last two seasons. He has topped 15 tries in four of his last five seasons and the Roosters project as the best team. Alofiana Khan-Pereira is a speed demon and try scoring machine who has 55 tries in 57 games for the lowly Titans. He is no certainty to win a starting spot but if he does he will fill up at the Warriors. Casey McLean scored 16 tries in 23 games in his first full season with the Panthers and scores plenty because he has no interest in passing the ball.

Since joining the Dolphins Jamayne Isaako has not missed a game while he has point tallies of 244, 223 and 278. Two of those three seasons he has finished as the NRL top pointscorer, primarily because he is one of the few goalkickers who is a regular double digit tryscorer.