The big guns (Sabalenka, Andreeva, Gauff and co) have strolled into the 3rd round but this is where things start to get interesting. With the seeded players now starting to face one another, the level rises and the margin for errors gets smaller with every point.
The top seed barely had enough time to raise a sweat in a comfortable 6-3 6-1 win over Bai and now takes on Potapova who has recorded a single win over a top 10 player from 2024 onwards. She has never beaten the current number 1 and has an 0-2 record against Sabalenka. To make matters worse, she has managed to win a total of only 7 games in 4 sets played against Sabalenka. Potapova deserves credit for her win over Raducanu but it must be said that the former US Open champion is someone we have consistently faded at the majors. She dropped four times in two sets against Raducanu so we can be rest assured that Sabalenka will break serve at will.
Hailey Baptiste won twice as many Grand Slam matches last year (6) than she had previously won in her entire career (3). She has continued her winning ways in Melbourne and will feel comfortable taking on a compatriot. They have only played one official match against one another on the WTA Tour with Gauff a comfortable winner but would have spent countless hours together on the practice courts. Baptiste has the power and aggression to attack the Gauff 2nd serve but will need to keep a lid on the unforced errors to give herself the best chance of causing an upset. Can see this one going the distance.
Big serving at the right moment and a total of 12 aces helped Tauson get out of a difficult spot against Kudermetova and she will need to be at her best to stay with a teenager that is not holding back. Mboko is taking us back to when the Williams’ sisters first arrived on the tour and started blasting their way past their opposition. She won 74% of 2nd serve return points in the win over McNally and it will be a big part of her game plan for this contest. There have been 22+ total match games in 8 of Tauson’s last 10 Grand Slam matches and this one will likely follow suit.
Svitolina extended her perfect start to the season (7-0) but it took some time for her to take control of the contest against Klimovicova. Shnaider has compiled a 6-2 record in the first month of the year but has played significantly tougher opposition than her upcoming opponents. Wins over Navarro, Leylah Fernandez and Krejcikova highlight the level she has been playing at, not to mention that her two losses came against Keys and Andreeva. Shnaider is very good at creating angles and that will help the lefty drag Svitolina into wide areas of the court. If there is a weakness in Svitolina’s game it is hitting when stretched which makes for an interesting contest. Shnaider will be winning at least one set.
Sabalenka v Potapova: Sabalenka -6.5 ($1.82)
Mboko v Tauson: Over 21.5 games ($1.90)
Sonmez v Putintseva: Sonmez WIN ($2.10)
Gauff v Baptiste: Over 18.5 games ($1.90)
Svitolina v Shnaider: Shnaider +1.5 Sets ($1.60)
Ruse v Andreeva: Under 18.5 games
Jovic v Paolini: Paolini WIN
Muchova v Linette: Sets Muchova 2-0