Check out our insider Premier League tips and full preview for the upcoming Matchweek 18 games including EPL best bets for the round!
Preview
The Red Devils four game unbeaten run ended in a 2-1 defeat away to Aston Villa. They failed to capitalise on their early dominance and as has been the case throughout this season, they were unable to lean on their defence. It was a similar story for Newcastle who led 2-0 at half time against Chelsea following a flawless 45-minute display. They took a back seat in the second half and paid the price having to settle for a point in a 2-2 draw.
Stats That Matter
Man Utd dominated this matchup for an extended period, but the Magpies have answered the bell in recent seasons. They completed the season double (2-0 and 4-1) and have now won 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series. Newcastle have maintained a clean sheet in 4 of those games but that could change as both teams to score has hit in 9 of Man Utd’s last 10 EPL matches. Over 2.5 goals is 8-2 in that stretch which lines up nicely with Newcastle 8-1 Overs record in their last 9. United have struggled in this spot with wins in only 5 of their last 13 as a home favourite.
Prediction
A fortnight ago, a clear warning was sent out with respect to backing United as a home favourite. They proceeded to concede four goals in a 4-4 draw against Bournemouth and another extremely high scoring contest would not surprise. We backed both teams to score/Over 2.5 goals in that game with Bournemouth to score 3+ goals netting us a healthy $6 winner. Will be placing the same bets in this one.
Tips
Best Bet: Both Teams To Score/Over 2.5 goals ($1.91)
Value: Newcastle Over 2.5 goals ($4.80)
Preview
Man City extended their win streak to five games with a 3-0 victory over West Ham. The concerning part for the rest of the competition is that they have been clinical in all aspects of their game – including defence. In the meantime, Nottingham Forest fell to 0-3 in their last 3 games following a win after failing to find the back of the net in a 1-0 loss at Craven Cottage. They have a tough schedule through the Christmas period and will have circled their battle against West Ham on Matchday 21 as a crucial fixture.
Stats That Matter
As mentioned, City have done more than just find the back of the net with great regularity in recent weeks. They have maintained a clean sheet in each of their last three games and that has been accompanied by scoring 3+ goals in 7 of their last 8 league games. Man City have won 4 of the last 6 meetings in this series and have kept Forest to nil in all four of those wins. Over 2.5 goals is 8-0 in City’s last 8 games and of their 9 away wins in the last year, 6 of them have been by a margin of 2+ goals. Forest have won only 1 of their previous 7 as a home underdog and have failed to score in their last 7 losses.
Prediction
A tremendous run has helped City close the gap to Arsenal to just two points and if they maintain their recent form they will be overtaking them sooner rather than later. Forest have won 4 of their last 7 to climb out of the relegation zone but have been poor in those losses. Expecting City to win by multiple goals and keep a clean sheet in the process.
Tips
Best Bet: Man City WIN, Both Teams To Score – NO ($2.65)
Value: Man City Over 3.5 goals ($5.50)
Preview
Bournemouth are winless in their last 8 following a 1-1 draw with Burnley and are officially the draw specialists this season. They have tallied 7 draws to date – more than any other team in the Premier League. Brentford jumped Bournemouth on the ladder following a 2-0 win over Wolves and have an excellent record in this series. A win from either side could see them climb into the top half of the standings.
Stats That Matter
They have locked horns on 6 prior occasions in the Premier League with Brentford compiling an undefeated record – 4 wins and 2 draws. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are 4-0 in the last 4 clashes with an average of 3.75 goals per game in those matches. As we saw in their recent trip to Old Trafford, it rains goals in Bournemouth away games. Over 2.5 goals has hit in each of their last 6 road games and 16 of their last 18 away league fixtures in the last year. Brentford have won only 5 of their last 15 games following a loss and have claimed maximum points just twice in their previous 7 attempts when installed as a home favourite.
Prediction
Brentford may be undefeated against Bournemouth but are significantly shorter in the market than they should be. In a game that could feature 5+ total goals, the team that takes its chances will come out victorious. Over 2.5 goals is one of the best bets of the weekend and after Bournemouth delivered at Old Trafford with 3+ goals paying $6, we will be repeating the dose here.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.70)
Value: Bournemouth Over 2.5 goals ($5.50)
Preview
A point earned from a 1-1 draw away to Bournemouth can be classified as progress for Burnley who had lost their previous 7 games. Everton came up short in a 1-0 loss to Everton and that came after a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Chelsea. This is a huge opportunity for them to get back in the winner’s circle, and they cannot afford to leave Turf Moor with anything but maximum points.
Stats That Matter
Last time Burnley were in the top flight (2023/24), Everton completed the season double against them (1-0 and 2-0). This is a classic situation where the Toffees lean on their defence. Under 2.5 goals has held in 9 of Everton’s last 12 games following a loss while both teams to score has hit in only 2 of their previous 10 league matches. Burnley have failed to collect a single point in their last four home games but have somehow conceded a total of only 10 goals in their 8 home games this season. Everton have been installed as the betting favourite 15 times in the last 12 months and lost only two of those games.
Prediction
There is a long list of likeable plays in this game. Everton will be the only team to score, and a single goal could be enough for them to collect all three points. The scoreline in their last two away wins has been 1-0 (at Bournemouth and away to Man Utd) and they have scored a total of 7 goals in 8 away games played. If Everton are to win it will be on the back of their defence.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.67)
Value: Everton WIN and Under 2.5 goals ($3.80)
Preview
A Gyokeres goal from the penalty spot midway through the first half was enough for the Gunners to collect maximum points away to Everton but they have been cutting it fine in recent weeks. The duo of Man City and Aston Villa are hot on their heels, and any slip up will see them lose their spot at the head of the EPL ladder. Brighton were held to a goalless draw at home to Sunderland last time out but should not be written off as they drew both games with Arsenal last season.
Stats That Matter
Their two battles last season both ended 1-1 and it means that Brighton have found the back of the net at least once in 5 of their last 7 league clashes against Arsenal. Despite being the benchmark all season defensively, Arsenal have maintained just 2 clean sheets in their last 7 league games and will also have to deal with a short turnaround following a midweek Carabao Cup fixture. Interestingly, the Under is 3-0 in Brighton’s last 3 games and 3-0 in their last 3 away league matches. They have claimed at least one point in 5 of their last 10 as an away underdog and this is the time of the season which is renowned for throwing up a series of upsets.
Prediction
Arsenal have been far from dominant in recent weeks and could have easily dropped points against both Wolves and Everton. Expecting them to be conservative in the first half as has regularly been the case and that will allow Brighton to get a foot into the contest. Brighton rank 5th in the league with respect to touch in the attacking penalty area and their recent history against Arsenal provides further support for them to find the back of the net. Fancy them stealing a point in a 1-1 draw.
Tips
Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES ($1.91)
Value: Draw ($4.75)
Preview
Liverpool have steadied the ship and are suddenly 5th on the ladder following a five-game unbeaten run including back-to-back wins in their last two. One could argue that they should have been more dominant against a Spurs side that played almost an hour with 10 men, but they managed to walk away with three very valuable points. Wolves crashed to a 10th consecutive loss and the light at the end of the tunnel is almost gone.
Stats That Matter
Anything but a Reds win will be a shock. They have won their last 5 against Wolves, each of the last 8 between them at Anfield and 16 of the last 18 overall. Wolves have failed to find the back of the net in 6 of their last 8 games leading into this contest and it could get ugly for them here as Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of Liverpool games following a win in the last year. During that same period, Wolves have lost 12 times on the road and have failed to score in 8 of those defeats.
Prediction
If their recent matches are an indicator, Wolves will attempt to park the proverbial bus. It has been a losing tactic for them and should instead go for broke. They have looked dangerous in small patches but only when they play a proactive brand of football. This could be the game where Liverpool’s attack has a field day but don’t rule out Wolves finding the back of the net as the Reds have maintained only 3 clean sheets in their last 12 league games.
Tips
Best Bet: Liverpool -1.5 ($1.65)
Value: Liverpool WIN, Both Teams To Score – YES, 2nd Half Over 1.5 goals ($3.16)
Preview
A 3-0 loss away to Man City means that West Ham are winless in their last 6 games (3 draws, 5 losses). In contrast, Fulham have won 4 of their last 6 including their last two which has them knocking on the door of a spot in the top half following a slow start to the season.
Stats That Matter
The Hammers won the corresponding fixture last season 3-2 and have won 4 of the last 5 meetings when at home in this series. They have earned at least a point in 12 of their last 19 games following a loss for a healthy profit but it is worth mentioning that Fulham have been victorious in 3 of their previous 4 as a road favourite. Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of Fulham away games in the last year and there have been at least two goals scored in 13 of the last 16 clashes between these two sides. Fulham have recorded a single clean sheet in their last 18 away games with 6 of their 7 road wins in the last year coming by a single goal.
Prediction
Not willing to put any trust in Fulham as an away favourite here and this is especially the case because their successes on the road have not come on the back of stout defence. The Hammers have scored multiple goals in 4 of their last 8 games which includes battles against Aston Villa and Newcastle. They have had a very difficult stretch of games in the last two months and a more favourable run in the coming weeks could see them turn things around.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.75)
Value: West Ham Over 2.5 goals ($5.00)
Preview
Aston Villa were tested in the first half by Man Utd but two beautiful strikes from Morgan Rogers were the difference as Villa extended their win streak in the league to 7 games. Chelsea were completely outplayed in the first half by Newcastle but were able to bounce back and claim a point in a 2-2 draw. They have now dropped points in 4 of their last 5 and despite remaining in 4th spot, the Blues are 7 points behind Aston Villa (3rd).
Stats That Matter
There has been very little between these two in recent seasons with four wins each and a draw in the last 9 meetings. Chelsea have recorded a single win across their last 5 league games but that hasn’t stopped the bookies from installing them as odds on favourites. Aston Villa have won 16 of their previous 21 games following a win (76%) and have taken at least a point in 7 of their last 10 as an away underdog. Over 2.5 goals is 4-0 in Villa’s last 4 games leading into this with the last three matches in this series also going over.
Prediction
Shocked to see Chelsea this short in betting in what is a clear sign of disrespect with respect to Aston Villa. The visitors have accumulated the same number of points on the road (14) as Chelsea have in home games and have scored 9 goals across their last 3 away games. Chelsea have a habit of letting their opposition play and paid the price for it against Newcastle. Aston Villa will have the line share of possession, and as we have witnessed in recent months, they have a number of players who are clinical in front of goal. Villa double chance is the best bet of the week!
Tips
Best Bet: Aston Villa Double Chance ($1.95)
Value: Aston Villa WIN/Over 2.5 goals ($5.50)
Preview
Sunderland double chance was the best bet of Gameweek 17, and they delivered by holding Brighton out in a 0-0 draw. Their defence will be placed under the microscope by Leeds who extended their unbeaten run to four games. They put 4 goals past Crystal Palace last week who are one of the best defensive sides in the competition. Leeds are five points clear of the relegation zone but will need to improve their away record if they are to remain in the top flight next season.
Stats That Matter
In the last month Leeds scored three goals against Liverpool and Chelsea to go with the four they put past Palace last week. Those games had something else in common – they were all played at Elland Road. It has been a different story for Leeds on the road where they have collected a total of only 4 points in 8 road matches played. They have scored a total of just 7 goals across those games, and the Stadium of Light has been a fortress this season. Sunderland are undefeated at home (5 wins, 3 draws) and have conceded just 7 goals with three wins to nil.
Prediction
Everybody loves a gift at Christmas time and Sunderland Double Chance ($1.40) can be used as a banker in all multis. Sunderland should be closer to odds on for the win and are also a good bet to keep a third consecutive clean sheet. The two sides know each other well following their battles in The Championship over the last two seasons, but the Premier League is better suited to Sunderland courtesy of their solid defence.
Tips
Best Bet: Sunderland WIN ($2.50)
Value: Sunderland WIN, Both Teams To Score – NO ($3.71)
Preview
It has been a fortnight of heartbreak for Crystal Palace. They were comprehensively beaten 3-0 and 4-1 by Man City and Leeds respectively before a dramatic penalty shootout loss to Arsenal in the Carabao Cup. Spurs are also coming off consecutive league losses and did themselves no favours last week when Xavi Simons got himself sent off for a silly challenge. Romero joins him on the absentee list after he was also sent off in injury time.
Stats That Matter
Leading into last season, Spurs had won 5 in a row against Crystal Palace. Not only did they fail to extend that record, but it was Crystal Palace that completed the season double (1-0 and 2-0). Both teams to score has hit in only 2 of the last 8 meetings in this series and in just 3 of Crystal Palace last 9 league games leading into this contest. Over 2.5 goals is 7-0 in Spurs last 7 away games and has hit in 80% of their games following a loss in the last year.
Prediction
Crystal Palace spent close to 120 minutes chasing Arsenal around the park in the Carabao Cup and after losing 8-7 on penalties, their mental strength will be tested here. Spurs are generally happy to sit deep in away games but with this in mind will likely look to speed up the tempo of the game. Romero and Simons are significant losses for the visitors – especially the former who controls their defensive line. The general rule is to back the Unders in Palace games at Selhurst Park but this game will be a case of the opposite.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.91)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($3.30)