Premier League Tips & Preview: Matchweek 16

Preview

The market is finally starting to adjust with respect to Liverpool. The 3-3 draw away to Leeds means they have now won only 2 of their last 10 Premier League matches and are in danger of dropping into the bottom half. Brighton were disappointing in a 1-1 draw at home to West Ham but there is a silver lining for both teams. Regardless of their recent form, a congested ladder means they find themselves only three points off a top 4 spot.

Stats That Matter

Liverpool led 2-0 with less than 20 minutes to play at Elland Road but it was another case of their defence being unable to stand tall when placed under pressure. They have conceded 2+ goals in 7 of their last 10 league games and must now contend with a Brighton side that has given them some trouble in recent seasons. The two teams have split the last 6 meetings with two wins each and two draws. Brighton have scored at least once in 6 consecutive games against Liverpool and have netted 3+ goals in half of those games. There have been a total of 16 goals scored in the last 4 matches in this series played at Anfield with an average of 4.0 goals per game.

Prediction

Leeds were paying $7 to score 3+ goals against Liverpool last week and this week we are getting the same price for Brighton to replicate that effort. They have achieved this in 3 of their last 6 games against the Reds including a 3-3 draw at this ground in 2022. Both teams to score/Over 2.5 goals is the clear top selection for this game as it has hit in each of the last 4 meetings and there have been no signs of Liverpool’s defence tightening the screws.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES/Over 2.5 goals ($1.85)
Value: Brighton Over 2.5 goals ($7.00)

Preview

A month ago, Everton were flirting with the relegation zone but 4 wins from their last 5 games has catapulted them to within two points of 4th place. They were dominant in a 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest and will not be intimidated by the trip to Stamford Bridge. Chelsea are winless in their last three games and lacked both spark and initiative in a 0-0 draw away to Bournemouth.

Stats That Matter

It has been more than 31 years (November 1994) since Everton last won a league game at Stamford Bridge. Historically, this has been their most difficult trip in the Premier League as they have failed to find the back of the net in 7 of their last 9 league games at this ground. The Blues have recorded 10 wins and 5 draws in the last 15 meetings as a home favourite but a lack of goals could increase the chances of an Everton upset. Under 2.5 goals is 4-0 in their last 4 away games and has held in 795 of their road league fixtures in the last year. The visitors have also managed to claim at least a point in 11 of their last 15 games when coming off a win.

Prediction

Everton managed to strike early against Forest last week which ruined our plans for a low scoring contest. A repeat is highly unlikely here as 60% of goals in games involving Chelsea are scored in the second half. The Toffees have consistently employed a defensive mindset in away games for an extended period with a total of only 15 goals scored in their 7 away games played so far this season (2.14 goals per game). With 4 clean sheets in their last 5 games, Chelsea will have to be at their best if they are to score multiple goals. Shocked to see Under 2.5 goals installed as the underdog play and believe a single goal from either side could be enough to claim victory.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.91)
Value: Under 1.5 goals ($3.50)

Preview

Fulham joined a select group of teams who have scored an open play goal against Crystal Palace this season but the beautiful finish from Harry Wilson would not translate to any points as they went down 2-1. Burnley deserve loads of credit for the way they fought with 10 men in the second half against Newcastle, but it could take its toll when they host the Cottagers in a game that both teams will believe is ‘winnable’.

Stats That Matter

There is no way to sugarcoat a run of 6 straight losses, but Burnley have not been embarrassed during that stretch. They have an excellent record against Fulham with 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 meetings but the concern here is the impact of having played close to an hour with 10 men. Fulham have won 10 of their last 17 following a loss with a return on investment of 154%. Over 2.5 goals has hit in 65% of those games and in 68% of Fulham away games in the last year. This differs from the home side and Under 2.5 goals has held in each of Burnley’s 7 league games played at Turf Moor this season.

Prediction

Cannot ignore the number of low scoring games that have been played at Turf Moor this season. There have been a total of only 12 goals scored in the 7 league games at this ground which represents an average of 1.7 goals per game. The trio of Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool combined for 5 goals in their respective league fixtures at Turf Moor which is a positive for the hosts. Moreover, Fulham have tallied a mediocre 6 goals in 7 away games played so we will not be taking the short price on offer for them to take maximum points. Under 2.5 goals is the best bet with Burnley a chance of ending their losing streak.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.75)
Value: Burnley WIN ($3.75)

Preview

Arsenal’s undefeated run was snapped at Villa Park and in all fairness, Aston Villa deserved all three points following an outstanding performance. Getting back into the winner’s circle shouldn’t be an issue as Wolves have officially hit a new low. Just when it looked like they were becoming slightly competitive, they were picked apart by the Red Devils in a 4-1 loss at home – their 8th loss in a row.

Stats That Matter

Wolves continue to set new records for all the wrong reasons and at this point are in danger of accumulating the lowest points total ever. Derby County collected 11 points in the 2007/08 season and Wolves are two games shy of equalling the longest winless start to the season (Sheffield United 17 games). Arsenal have won their last 4 home games and are seeking a 9th consecutive win against Wolves in the league. They have held them to nil in 5 of the previous 6 league clashes with the visitors ending a drought of 500+ minutes when they scored against Man Utd. Of the 12 home wins that Arsenal have registered in the last year, they have maintained a clean sheet in 8 of those matches.

Prediction

Despite a tremendous start to the season, Arsenal’s lead at the top has been cut to two points. Arteta continues to employ defensive tactics on the road and they are paying the price for it having scored a total of only 10 goals in their 8 away games played. Back at home they will be proactive with the ball and Wolves will not show any resistance. This is a perfect opportunity for Arsenal to improve their goal difference and they will take full advantage.

Tips

Best Bet: Arsenal Over 2.5 goals ($1.85)
Value: Arsenal Over 4.5 goals ($5.75)

Preview

Conceding in the second minute of the game made it virtually impossible for Nottingham Forest against Everton and the defeat leaves them only 2 points clear of the drop zone. Spurs on the other hand ended a 5-game winless run with a 2-0 victory over Brentford. They followed that up with a 3-0 win over Slavia Prague in the Champions League and will want to continue their winning form here – especially with difficult encounters against Liverpool and Crystal Palace to follow.

Stats That Matter

Heading into last season Spurs had won 4 in a row in this series, but Forest flipped the script by doing the double against them (1-0 and 2-1). The bookies aren’t buying into Spurs’ form in the last week with the London side opening as outsiders for this contest. That is significant as Spurs have won only 3 of their last 15 as an away underdog. The trend in their away games has been goals with Over 2.5 goals in each of their last 6 league away matches. In addition to this, both teams to score/Over 2.5 double is 4-1 in their last 5 games overall with an average of 3.6 goals per game in that stretch.

Prediction

Keen to play the total here rather than take either side H2H. Nottingham Forest have been vulnerable in the tail end of each half with 17 of their 25 goals being conceded in the final 15 minutes of each stanza (30-45th minute and 76th minute onwards). That spells trouble as Spurs have been strong in the second half this season – outscoring their opponents 15-7. Both teams to score/Over 2.5 goals is the clear top pick with 5+ goals an interesting value play.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES/Over 2.5 goals ($2.20)
Value: Over 4.5 goals ($6.00)

Preview

Aston Villa were outstanding against Arsenal and Buendia’s winner with the final touch of the game came on the back of their willingness to pursue all three points. They now sit only three points behind Arsenal and are developing into a genuine title contender. The trip to London Stadium will not be easy as the Hammers have had a good month of results. They have lost only 1 of their last 6 and consecutive draws away from home (Man Utd and Brighton) are the types of results that pay dividends at the end of the season.

Stats That Matter

Winning close games and turning draws into victories have been pivotal to Aston Villa’s success. They have won 9 of their last 10 with 7 of their last 8 wins coming by a single goal. Over 2.5 goals is 4-1 in their last 5 games and they will likely need to score at least twice to win here as the Hammers have found the back of the net in 6 of their last 7 league games. In addition to this, both teams have scored in 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series. West Ham have been a better bet as the outsider on the road than at home where they have won only 2 of their last 13 as the underdog. Aston Villa have won 70% of games following a win in the last 12 months with 3+ total match goals in 65% of those matches.

Prediction

Getting anything close to even money for Aston Villa to take all three points on offer is generous to say the least. They have won 3 of their last 4 away games and their only defeat in that stretch came at Anfield. The Hammers have lost 9 of their previous 13 games as a home underdog and have maintained just 1 clean sheet in their last 18 home games. That spells trouble against an Aston Villa side playing an excellent brand of attacking football. Matty Cash and Maatsen are getting forward in wide areas which is creating more space for the likes of Tielemans and McGinn to pick teams apart through the middle. Like Villa to win even if the Hammers manage to get on the scoresheet.

Tips

Best Bet: Aston Villa WIN ($2.00)
Value: Aston Villa WIN/Both Teams To Score – YES ($3.56)

Preview

Crystal Palace were supposed to struggle with back-to-back away games on their schedule but wins at Burnley and Fulham have helped them solidify a spot in the top 4. Their defence now faces the ultimate test – a Man City side that has scored 11 goals in its last 3 games (all wins). City have imposed their will on Palace in the past and will need all three points if they are to stay in touch with Arsenal.

Stats That Matter

Very few teams have been able to break down Crystal Palace but Man City are one of them. They are undefeated in their last 7 Premier League battles against them and have scored an incredible 13 goals in the last 4 meetings alone. Over 2.5 goals is 6-0 in City’s last 6 games and they have virtually done it on their own having scored 3+ goals in 5 of those games. Crystal Palace have lost just the 4 league games at Selhurst Park in the last year with three of those defeats coming by a single goal. They have relished the underdog tag and have managed to collect at least one point in 11 of their previous 16 league games as the outsider in betting.

Prediction

The two biggest hurdles for Crystal Palace are containing Man City’s sizzling attack and overcoming a very poor history in this matchup. Nobody has been able to slow down City’s attack in the last month and I don’t expect Palace to do so here – no matter how good they have been defensively. They have been forced to play at City’s pace in the past with Over 3.5 goals in 5 of the last 6 league clashes (4.5 goals per game). Both teams will be finding the back of the net in a very high scoring contest. It is also worth mentioning that both teams have scored multiple goals in each of the last four EPL meetings.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score/Over 2.5 Goals ($1.95)
Value :Crystal Palace Over 1.5 goals, Man City Over 1.5 goals ($4.53)

Preview

A congested ladder means that one or two bad results can result in a dramatic slide. Sunderland’s loss to Man City was only their second in their last six games but three draws in that stretch means they are down to 9th. In comparison, Newcastle have won 3 of their last 4 to join the mid-table scramble. A total of only 6 points separate 4th-13th on the EPL ladder.

Stats That Matter

Resilience has been a key feature of Sunderland’s solid start to the season. They are a perfect 4-0 in their 4 games following a loss this season with the Over hitting in 75% of those games. The Over is 1-5 when coming off a loss which indicates a clear intent to score goals after having tasted defeat. It has been raining goals in Newcastle matches with Over 2.5 goals in each of their last 8 Premier League matches including 4-0 in their last 4 on the road. Sunderland have a fantastic recent record in the Tyne-Wear derby with 6 wins and a draw in the last 7 meetings. They have not lost to Newcastle in a Premier League match since 2011 with fewer than three total match goals in 7 of the last 11 clashes.

Prediction

They are separated by less than 20km in the north-east and there is never any love lost between them. Sunderland have maintained 4 clean sheets across the last 5 meetings and have been flawless following a loss so far this season. Newcastle should not be this short in the market – especially if the goals are hard to come by as they have been in the past. Like Sunderland in the double chance market and would like to remind everyone that Newcastle have been victorious in only 1 of their 7 away games this season.

Tips

Best Bet: Sunderland Double Chance ($1.65)
Value: Sunderland WIN/Under 3.5 goals ($4.00)

Preview

The final 20 minutes of Leeds’ battle with Liverpool was as good as it gets. Leeds overcame a 2-0 deficit only to fall behind 3-2 but it was not over as Ao Tanaka provided the home fans with a moment to remember – equalising in the 97th minute. It was great news for followers with our value bet of Leeds Over 2.5 goals netting us a healthy $7 winner. Brentford were outplayed in a 2-0 loss away to Spurs but return home following difficult back-to-back road assignments (Spurs and Arsenal).

Stats That Matter

Brentford are coming off a 4th consecutive away loss but have been a different team on their own turf. They have won their last three games at Gtech Community Stadium and have done so impressively (3-1, 3-2 and 3-2 over Burnley, Newcastle and Liverpool respectively). Brentford rank 4th in points accumulated at home this season (16) with the trio of Man City, Arsenal and Brighton the only teams to have scored more home goals. They have also won 9 of their last 16 games following a loss which suggests they will bounce back here while Leeds have had serious trouble on the road having lost 6 of 7 away games this season including their last four.

Prediction

Leeds put a healthy chunk into our pockets last week by netting three goals at home to Liverpool but that form will not translate to a result here. They have managed just 6 goals in 7 away games this season and 18 goals conceded gives them a differential of -12 (equal worst in the competition). Brentford have claimed some big scalps already at home this season and after two very difficult road fixtures, they will be back to their best here. The home side are one of the best bets of the weekend.

Tips

Best Bet: Brentford WIN ($1.95)
Value: Brentford Over 2.5 goals ($4.00)

Preview

The Red Devils have consistently been scheduled to play the final game of the round, and it is starting to pay dividends. They were comfortable 4-1 winners over Wolves but the question marks over their defence remain as the last-placed side had failed to score in their previous five games. Bournemouth deserve credit for a 0-0 draw at home to Chelsea, but the result means they are winless in their last 6 games.

Stats That Matter

With Man Utd having won only 2 of their last 12 following a win, the bookies are keeping Bournemouth safe. After all, the Cherries are undefeated in their last 4 games against Man Utd with 2 wins and 2 draws in that stretch. They have posted 3-0 victories in each of their last two trips to Old Trafford and despite losing their last three away games leading into this one, have claimed at least a point in 8 of their previous 13 games as an away underdog. Old Trafford is not the fortress it once was and this is highlighted by the Red Devils’ defence with only 3 clean sheets in their last 18 league home games. Bournemouth have notably found the back of the net at least once in 16 of their last 18 away matches and have netted multiple times in 3 of their last 5 road games in the Premier League.

Prediction

Have to tread very carefully when it comes to backing Man Utd when they are odds on. They have won only 5 of their last 12 as a home favourite and have a terrible record following a win. Over 2.5 goals has hit in 89% of Bournemouth away games in the last 12 months and with Man Utd unable to keep a clean sheet, the visitors are a good bet to win in a high scoring game. Back the Overs with confidence and Bournemouth to score multiple goals.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score/Over 2.5 goals ($1.83)
Value: Bournemouth Over 2.5 goals ($6.00)