Premier League Tips & Preview: Matchweek 14

Preview

Having to play with 10 men for almost 80 minutes in an epic win over Man Utd took a toll on Everton as they were played off the park by Newcastle. They trailed 4-0 inside before the hour mark which will make the trip to Bournemouth even more difficult. The Cherries were the latest team to make an unsuccessful trip to the Stadium of Light, but they return home where they are yet to taste defeat this season.

Stats That Matter

There is no place like home for Bournemouth who are one of only 4 teams that are undefeated at home this season. They also have an excellent recent record against Everton with wins in 6 of the last 8 meetings including each of the last three. The Cherries have won the last 4 Premier League battles between the two sides played at this ground with a combined score of 9-2 in those matches. Over 2.5 goals is 4-0 in Bournemouth’s last 4 games and has also hit in 8 of their previous 10 when coming off a loss. That said, Under 2.5 goals has held in 68% of Bournemouth home games in the last year and 78% of Everton away games during the same period.

Prediction

With a single point collected from their last 4 games, don’t want any piece of Bournemouth at this price. Everton have claimed at least a point in 12 of their last 18 away games with an ROI of more than 192%. Bournemouth have a mediocre 50% win rate as a home favourite over the last 12 months, and we will be backing Everton to be back to their defensive best here.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.80)
Value: Draw/Under 2.5 goals ($3.90)

Preview

Fulham delivered in a big way for us last week with an upset win over London rivals Tottenham. They stunned Spurs with two goals inside the opening 10 minutes and survived a late onslaught to emerge 2-1 victors. Man City also led 2-0 at one point in their home fixture against Leeds but can almost consider themselves lucky to collect maximum points. Leeds managed to equalise with 20 minutes to play, and it took an injury time goal from Phil Foden to seal the win for City.

Stats That Matter

Wins in 3 of their last 4 have seen Fulham move well clear of the relegation zone but this matchup has been disastrous for them. Man City have won the last 15 Premier League matches between the two sides with 5 of their last 6 wins at Craven Cottage coming by a margin of 2+ goals. They have outscored Fulham 17-3 in those games, but this is a great opportunity for the Cottagers to end the drought. They have won 4 of their last 5 league games at home with their only defeat in that stretch being a 1-0 loss to Arsenal. City have recorded just the one clean sheet in their last five EPL matches and are well short of the Gunners in terms of defence – the only team to maintain a clean sheet at Craven Cottage this season.

Prediction

The December/January schedule is chaotic and a pivotal part in the season for all teams as this is the first of 6 league games to be played in less than a month. City have won only 1 of their last 5 away games in the Premier League and after conceding multiple goals at home to Leeds, they should not be this short in betting. Have both teams finding the back of the net and am keen to take the home side to score at least twice – earning them at least a point.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES ($1.70)
Value: Fulham Over 1.5 goals/Fulham Double Chance ($4.00)

Preview

A second consecutive loss and a single point earned from their last four games has seen Spurs slide to the bottom half of the ladder. In contrast, Newcastle are coming off back-to-back wins over Man City and Everton to join a very congested middle portion of the EPL ladder. Woltemade ended a four-game drought, but it was the double from centre back Malick Thiaw that deserves all the headlines.

Stats That Matter

This has been a favourable matchup for the Magpies as they have won 5 of the last 6 meetings including the last three. Both meetings last season ended with the same score line (2-1) which extended the streak of 3 or more goals being scored in 9 consecutive meetings. Over 2.5 goals is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 away games, 6-0 in Newcastle’s last 6 overall, and has been successful in 76% of Spurs’ games following a loss in the last year. The goal rush does not end there as there have been 4 or more goals in 9 of the previous 14 clashes in this series.

Prediction

Newcastle have found the back of the net at least once in each of their last 8 Premier League matches which suggests that Spurs will need multiple goals if they are to come away with something from this contest. This match screams goals from all angles so you will want to snap up the $1.70 about Over 2.5 goals nice and early as there could be more than a handful of goals in this one.

Tips

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.70)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($2.70)

Preview

You won’t find many teams currently in better form than Brighton and Aston Villa. They sit 5th and 4th respectively with both winning while keeping a clean sheet at the weekend. A single goal was enough for Aston Villa to overcome Wolves while Brighton came away with maximum points from their trip to the City Ground.

Stats That Matter

There has been just a single draw from the last 8 meetings in this series meaning a share of the spoils is unlikely. Aston Villa have taken maximum points in 6 of those games including a 3-0 win in the corresponding fixture last season. Over 2.5 goals is 5-0 in Brighton’s last 5 home games and has hit in 72% of their EPL home matches in the last season. Brighton have won their last 3 home games but have taken all three points in only 6 of their previous 13 as a home favourite. Meanwhile, Aston Villa have a 65% win rate following a win in the last year with a healthy return on investment of 146%.

Prediction

Amex Stadium has been the home of goals in the 25/26 season with 3+ goals in all 6 matches played at the ground. With 21 goals scored across the last 6 matches in this series (3.5 goals per game) that trend is set to continue. This one could go either way but there won’t be more than a goal in it. Of Brighton’s 9 home wins in the last 12 months, 7 have been by a single goal and the same applies to 5 of Villa’s 7 road win during the same stretch. Both teams to score/Over 2.5 is the best bet with Villa to score an upset win the value option.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score/Over 2.5 goals ($2.10)
Value: Aston Villa WIN ($3.25)

Preview

It is scary to think that a 1-0 loss is an improvement for Wolves. It was their 6th consecutive loss and the fourth game in a row that they failed to score. Nottingham Forest were brimming with confidence following a 3-0 win over Liverpool but a 2-0 loss at home to Brighton was a reminder that there are no easy games in the Premier League. Forest won the corresponding fixture last season 3-0 and would gladly take a repeat of that score.

Stats That Matter

Wolves have not been able to score anywhere – home, away, or on the training paddock. To make matters worse they have conceded multiple goals in 5 of their last 6. This will be the 5th time in the last year that Nottingham Forest have been installed as road favourites, and they have relished the tag in the past with 3 wins and a draw. The visitors have registered a total of 8 away wins in that time with five of those wins coming by a margin of 2+ goals. Forest will likely have to score more than once to win as Wolves have managed to score at least once in 4 of their last 5 league games at Molineux Stadium. Despite this, they have lost all five of those games.

Prediction

Forest may have failed to score at home to Brighton in the weekend gone by but there will not be a repeat of that here. Teams have been scoring against Wolves for fun – especially in the final half hour of games. They have conceded 13 goals from the 61st minute onwards and have allowed more goals at home (16) than on the road (12) despite playing an additional game away from home thus far. Nottingham Forest at more than even money to win is a very attractive play.

Tips

Best Bet: Nottingham Forest WIN ($2.20)
Value: Nottingham Forest WIN/Both Teams To Score – YES ($4.17)

Preview

Arsenal’s 1-1 draw away to Chelsea was another example of cautious tactics being employed in big away games. Chelsea were relegated to 10 men when Caicedo was sent off in the 38th minute but managed to conjure up a total of only 8 shots compared to Chelsea’s 11. They will look at the result as a missed opportunity with three teams now within 6 points of them. Brentford extended their win streak at home to three games but will need to improve on the road where they have collected a total of only three points this season.

Stats That Matter

Brentford have not been intimidated by the trip to Emirates Stadium in recent seasons. They have managed to claim a point in 2 of their last 3 games as the away team in this series. Scoring on the road is one of their strengths as they have been held to nil only twice in their last 19 away games. Despite extending their unbeaten run to 10 games, Arsenal have conceded at least once in each of their last three league games. The Gunners have shown great resilience this season by winning all three games after having dropped points.

Prediction

This is a genuine danger game for Arsenal. Brentford may have a poor record on the road so far this season, but this is a ground that they have held their own at in recent games. Packed schedules and short turnarounds are the catalyst for unpredictable results. At a minimum I have Brentford finding the back of the net and will not be shocked if they are able to steal a point.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES
Value: Brentford Double Chance ($3.40)

Preview

Crystal Palace fell asleep for 10 minutes against Man Utd and it proved costly. They failed to capitalise on their early dominance and a Mateta penalty was not enough to prevent their first home loss of the season. Burnley’s battle against Brentford was a stalemate with less than 10 minutes to play but that changed with the teams combining for four goals. Unfortunately for Burnley, they conceded three times in that period which led to a fourth straight loss.

Stats That Matter

There is a distinct trend in Crystal Palace matches following a loss and that is an absence of goals. Under 2.5 goals is 5-2 in their previous 7 EPL matches on the back of a defeat and that lines up nicely with Burnley as Under 2.5 goals is 6-0 in their 6 home games this season. Palace rank 4th in away points collected this season with the trio of Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs the only team to have earned more than 10 points on the road this season. Four goals allowed in 6 away games is the fewest of any team and they did the double over Burnley (2-0 and 3-0) last time they were in the top flight (23/24).

Prediction

When Crystal Palace have been successful away from home it has been on the back of their impenetrable defence. They have notched up 9 wins away from home in the last year and have maintained a clean sheet in 7 of those victories. Burnley have failed to find the back of the net three times at Turf Moor this season – against Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea. Only Arsenal can lay claim to being a better defensive unit than Crystal Palace at present so we will be backing the visitors to keep a clean sheet in a low scoring contest.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.80)
Value: Crystal Palace WIN/Both Teams To Score – NO ($2.61)

Preview

When Caicedo was sent off midway through the first half against the Gunners, Chelsea looked doomed. They managed to take the lead right after the break and eventually came away with a 1-1 draw – a great result considering the circumstances. Leeds on the other hand crashed to a 4th consecutive loss despite managing to score twice away to Man City. They are stuck in the bottom three and the month of December will be a huge test for the promoted side.

Stats That Matter

Leeds are yet to win as a home underdog this season (2 draws, 2 losses) but have scored at least once in 5 of their 6 home games played thus far. Over 2.5 goals has hit in each of their last 4 games played at Elland Road and in 69% of their 13 league matches this season. Chelsea are seeking a 4th consecutive win away from home after having collected maximum points away to Burnley, Tottenham and Nottingham Forest in their last three. Both teams to score/Over 2.5 goals has saluted in 7 of Leeds last 9 games including battles against several of the top sides – Man City, Spurs and Aston Villa among them.

Prediction

Winners of The Championship last season, Leeds are going to go down swinging. They were the entertainers in the second tier of English football with an average of more than two goals per game in that competition and are not going to change their identity in the top flight. Their best form of defence is attack and they will be going for it here. Chelsea have been patient in recent away games so do not be surprised if Leeds win the line share of possession in the first half. The goals will be flowing at both ends of the field.

Tips

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.80)
Value: Both Teams To Score – YES/Over 3.5 goals ($3.21)

Preview

It turns out that Liverpool can still win football matches but their 2-0 win over West Ham was less than convincing. It took them an hour to break the deadlock and were only able to seal victory in injury time – after the Hammers had been relegated to 10 men. In the meantime, Sunderland delivered for us as the outsider, overcoming an early 2-0 deficit to beat Bournemouth 3-2. As has been the case throughout the season, Sunderland are being given no chance by the bookies.

Stats That Matter

Liverpool have lost twice as many games (6) as Sunderland (3) this season and are the only team yet to register a draw. They have conceded multiple goals in 6 of their last 8 league games and have maintained just 4 clean sheets from their last 18 home games. The market continues to get it wrong with Sunderland as they have claimed at least a point in 9 of 12 games played as the outsider this season for a return on investment of 179%. Under 2.5 goals has held on in 4 of their 5 games played following a win but that could be overridden by Liverpool 72% strike rate at home in the Over 2.5 goals in the last 12 months.

Prediction

Over the course of the last 12 games, Liverpool have won by 2+ goals only twice. They have consistently leaked goals this season and that has kept most of their games in the balance until the final whistle. Only a handful of teams have conceded fewer goals than Sunderland this season so we can have some confidence that the visitors will be able to lean on their defence. This market has been shaped as if Liverpool are at the peak of their powers, but they are not. Getting $1.80 for Sunderland +1.5 goals in the handicap market is madness. They are also a great value bet to steal a point.

Tips

Best Bet: Sunderland +1.5 ($1.80)
Value: Sunderland Double Chance ($3.20)

Preview

Those who watch Man Utd’s battle against Crystal Palace may still be wondering how they came away with the three points. Their defence was shambolic at stages but after Crystal Palace failed to capitalise on an array of early chances, they pounced with two quick goals. There were no goals from West Ham in their loss away to Liverpool but don’t be quick to write them off here as they have had the Red Devils number in recent years.

Stats That Matter

West Ham have won 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series and did the double over the Red Devils last season (2-1 and 2-0). The most notable trend in this matchup is the lack of goals. Under 2.5 goals is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings with both teams to score occurring in only one of those games. Recent form makes it difficult to consider this as the Red Devils have conceded at least once in 12 of 13 games this season while the Hammers have gone more than 10 games without a clean sheet. United have lost 7 of their last 12 as a home favourite while West Ham have taken at least a point in 8 of their previous 15 as an away underdog.

Prediction

Cannot go anywhere near Manchester United at this price. They have grossly underperformed as a home favourite and have been far more effective as the outsider in the last 12+ months. The Red Devils have won only 2 of their previous 11 following a win while West Ham have posted a 6W/6D/6L record following a loss in the last year. Confident that we will see the visitors find the back of the net and fancy them scoring multiple goals in an upset win.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES/Over 2.5 goals ($1.95)
Value: West Ham Over 1.5 goals ($3.40)