Check out our insider Premier League tips and full preview for the upcoming Matchweek 13 games including EPL best bets for the round!
Preview
Despite having a mountain of possession (67%) and almost twice as many shots as Newcastle (17-9), Man City failed to walk away from St James’ Park with a single point. They have fallen 7 points adrift of league leaders Arsenal and the result was compounded by a very disappointing 2-0 loss at home to Laverkusen in the Champions League. Leeds opened the scoring at home to Aston Villa last week a second half double from Morgan Rogers saw the visitors claim maximum points.
Stats That Matter
Leeds made a fast start to their campaign but a run of 5 losses in their last 6 has seen them slide into the dreaded relegation zone. City have run riot on Leeds in prior meetings with the home side winning the last four Premier League encounters between them by a combined score of 16-2. Man City have won their last 5 league games at Etihad Stadium with Over 2.5 goals hitting in 7 of their last 10 games following a loss. Leeds have failed to find the back of the net in 4 of their 6 away games played this season and could be in trouble here as Man City have maintained a clean sheet in 5 of their 7 victories to date.
Prediction
It has been a case of missed opportunities for Man City in the last week. They have managed to score just once in their last two games (all competitions) despite generating 36 shot attempts. They will dominate possession in this contest and could amass 20+ shots. It is simply a matter of converting those opportunities and if they can make an early breakthrough, there is no telling how many goals they will score.
Tips
Best Bet: Man City WIN/Both Teams To Score – NO ($1.93)
Value: Man City Over 3.5 goals ($3.60)
Preview
Burnley crashed to a third consecutive loss and failed to create any meaningful opportunities in the loss to Chelsea. Brentford got on the score sheet in their trip to Brighton but it was not enough to take anything back home with them. Nevertheless, they return home where they have accumulated 13 of their 16 points so far this season.
Stats That Matter
Home ground advantage has been critical in this matchup with the home team winning each of the last 4 Premier League meetings. They have combined for a total of 12 goals in those matches (3 goals per game) and that trend is set to continue as Over 2.5 goals is 6-0 in Burnley’s last 6 away games in the top flight. Brentford will do their bit in the goals department as there have been 3 or more goals in 63% of their matches following a loss in the last year. If there is a concern for Brentford it is that they have won only 2 of their last 7 as a home favourite and have a significantly better record (6-3-3) as a home underdog over the same period.
Prediction
Against almost any other team Brentford’s record as a home favourite would create some doubt but that is not the case here. Burnley have lost 5 of their 6 away games this season but of most interest to us is that they have found the back of the net at least once in each of the last five road fixtures. Over 2.5 goals is one of the best bets of the round with Over 4.5 goals and Burnley Over 1.5 team goals very attractive value bets.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.80)
Value: Over 4.5 goals ($5.25), Burnley Over 1.5 goals ($4.50)
Preview
Bournemouth have almost got to be satisfied with a draw at home to West Ham last week after having trailed 2-0. Sunderland failed to score for the first time in almost two months in a 1-0 loss at Craven Cottage but return home where they have been excellent so far this season.
Stats That Matter
The Stadium of Light has been a fortress this season with Sunderland posting 3 wins and 3 draws in their first 6 home games. That includes taking points off the likes of Arsenal and Aston Villa. Bournemouth have lost their last two away games but have still managed to claim at least a point in 8 of their last 13 away games. The Cherries have found the back of the net in 17 of their 19 away games played in the last year while Sunderland have scored at least once in all 6 home games since returning to the top flight. It consistently rains goals in Bournemouth road games with Over 2.5 goals hitting in 17 of their last 19 away EPL matches including each of their last 4.
Prediction
Sunderland being installed as clear outsiders is a sign of disrespect. Their three defeats this season all came on the road, and they are the only three games which they failed to score in. Bournemouth do not keep clean sheets on the road and in a game which is very likely to produce plenty of goals, it is Sunderland whose defence is more trustworthy. Back Over 2.5 goals with confidence and Sunderland to score an upset win at home.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.91)
Value: Sunderland WIN ($2.90)
Preview
It is hard to remember the last time we had such a contested ladder more than 10 games into the EPL season. A total of 9 points separates 2nd and 15th meaning every point matters. Everton were battling to stay out of the relegation spots a fortnight ago but back-to-back wins has catapulted them to 11th – above archrivals Liverpool on goal difference. Newcastle were staring down the barrel of a third straight loss but took their chances when it mattered most to beat Man City 2-1.
Stats That Matter
Newcastle have finished higher on the ladder than Everton in recent seasons, but it has not been on the back of dominance in this series. Everton are undefeated in the last four clashes which includes a 1-0 win in the corresponding fixture last season. Under 2.5 goals has held in 5 of the last 7 between them including the last 3 with no more than a single goal scored in 4 of those games. In addition to this, Under 2.5 goals is 9-4 in Everton’s last 13 games following a win. Newcastle’s attack has struggled on the road with a total of 3 goals in 6 away games this season and no more than a single goal scored in any of those matches.
Prediction
Wolves are the only side to have scored fewer away goals than Newcastle this season which makes it impossible to back them here – regardless of the win over Man City last week. Everton have conceded just once across their last three games and have claimed at least a point in 4 of their previous 6 as a home underdog. They were outstanding defensively in the 1-0 win over Man Utd last week and a similar defensive display here will make them awfully hard to beat.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.75)
Value: Under 1.5 goals ($3.20)
Preview
These two London rivals have been going in the opposite direction in recent weeks. Spurs have claimed a single point from their last three games and have consequently slid to 9th. They employed extremely negative tactics away to Arsenal last week and were punished 4-1 as a result. Fulham have tightened the screws defensively and it has helped them win two of their last three. The corresponding fixture last season ended in a 1-1 draw.
Stats That Matter
Fulham may have been victorious in 2 of their last 3 but both victories came at Craven Cottage. They have lost their last 5 away games in the league with 12 goals allowed across those matches. The Cottagers have won only 2 of their last 13 following a win with a 23% win rate as the betting outsider in the last year. With a single clean sheet from their last 19 away games, it is fair to assume that Fulham will not be holding Spurs out. Furthermore, there have been 3 or more total match goals in 75% of Spurs games after a loss in the last 12 months. At one stage Spurs had gone 11 matches without defeat against Fulham but their cross town rivals have turned things around with 2 wins and a draw in the last 3 clashes.
Prediction
Anyone who watched Spurs play Arsenal last week will find it very difficult to have a single cent on them here. They showed no intent with the ball whatsoever until they were 3-0 down. Despite ranking 5th in possession this season, Spurs rank 19th in shots attempted with Burnley the only side to have had fewer attempts at goal. The bulk of Spurs possession is in their defensive third and if the visitors can be successful with a high press in stages of this contest, they will give themselves a great chance of taking all three points!
Tips
Best Bet: Fulham Double Chance ($1.73)
Value: Fulham WIN/Over 2.5 goals ($5.00)
Preview
Just when it appeared as though Man Utd had taken forward steps into the right direction, they have been brought straight back down to earth. Back-to-back draws away to Nottingham Forest and Spurs were followed by an abysmal 1-0 home loss to Everton. Gueye was sent off in the 13th minute but after somehow taking the lead, Everton were able to contain United who despite having 25 shots, were unable to create many genuine scoring opportunities. There now head to Selhurst Park to take on a Palace side that are 5th following a comfortable 2-0 win at Wolves – their 3rd consecutive clean sheet.
Stats That Matter
With only 9 goals allowed through 12 games, Crystal Palace have the second best defensive record in the league behind Arsenal. They have conceded a single goal in the last month and it came in a 1-0 loss away to the league leaders. One team that has had no answer for their defensive prowess in recent seasons is Man Utd. Palace have maintained a clean sheet in each of their last 4 games against the Red Devils with three victories and a 0-0 draw in those matches. Under 2.5 goals has held on in 7 of the last 9 meetings in this series and each of the last 4 games that Palace have played leading into this contest.
Prediction
After failing to score against 10-man Everton it is hard to see the Red Devils attack having any success against one of the best defensive sides in the Premier League. If Crystal Palace are to claim a coveted top 4 finish, they will need to turn draws into wins more often with 6 of their last 14 games as a home favourite ending with a share of the spoils. Shocked to see Under 2.5 goals as the underdog play and rate it as one of the best bets of the weekend. The 3.50 for Palace to keep a clean sheet is well over the odds.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($2.10)
Value: Man Utd Under 0.5 goals ($3.50)
Preview
The hole that Liverpool are in is getting deeper by the minute. They were embarrassed in a 3-0 loss at home to Nottingham Forest and have now lost 6 of their last 7 Premier League matches. The defending champions are in the bottom half of the ladder and have now conceded more goals (20) than they have scored (18). West Ham extended their unbeaten run to three games with the 2-2 draw away to Bournemouth lifting them out of the bottom three for the first time this season.
Stats That Matter
Defence continues to be the core issue for Liverpool with any notion of successfully defending their title over before we even enter the month of December. They have conceded multiple goals in 6 of their last 7 league games and conceding inside 10 minutes of a horrific 4-1 defeat at home to PSV in the Champions League further highlights that a change is not imminent. The Hammers have bagged 8 goals in their last 3 games with Over 2.5 goals hitting in each of their last 4. Liverpool are undefeated in their last 7 league matches against the Hammers (6 wins and a draw) with 3 or more total match goals in the last five. West Ham have found the back of the net at least once in 8 of the last 11 meetings and with the Reds defence currently in disarray, there is nothing to indicate that they will not score in this one.
Prediction
It only takes one look at the Premier League ladder to see that the gap between the so-called ‘big teams’ and the rest of the competition is getting smaller by the year. Liverpool, Man Utd, Tottenham and Newcastle all sit 9th or lower yet they are consistently installed as firm favourites on the back of their reputation. With respect to form and their defensive frailties throughout this season, there is no reason for Liverpool to be this short in betting. Both teams will find the back of the net in a high scoring contest with the home team a good chance of bagging multiple goals.
Tips
Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES/Over 2.5 goals ($1.80)
Value: West Ham Over 1.5 goals ($2.70)
Preview
The resurgence of Nottingham Forest is officially in full swing. It began with a comfortable win over Leeds and continued with a scintillating 3-0 win away to Liverpool – their second consecutive win over the Reds at Anfield. Meanwhile, Brighton have quietly climbed to 6th spot on the ladder with the 2-1 win over Brentford extending their unbeaten run to three games. Forest embarrassed Brighton 7-0 in the corresponding fixture last season meaning the visitors will have a mental hurdle to overcome when they enter City Ground.
Stats That Matter
Momentum was critical in the success of Forest last season and last week’s win means that they have registered 8 wins and 2 draws in their last 16 games following a win. The goals are starting to flow with 8 goals in their last 3 games and that trend should continue as they have scored multiple goals in 4 of their last 5 EPL clashes against Brighton. Over 2.5 goals has hit in 68% of Brighton away games but more importantly, there have been 4 or more total goals in 4 of the previous 5 meetings in this matchup. The last three battles between them at this ground have produced a mouth-watering 16 goals!
Prediction
The appointment of Sean Dyche has seen Nottingham Forest return to the direct style of football that made them successful last season. They are prioritising direct balls to a forward target, looking to pick up the scraps around aerial duels and immediately get the ball to the wide men in space. For the foreseeable future we will be backing Over 2.5 goals in most of their games.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.85)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($3.10)
Preview
Wolves remain winless following a 2-0 loss at home to Crystal Palace and have now failed to score a single goal in their last three games. In contrast, Aston Villa climbed into the top 4 on the back of a 2-1 win away to Leeds improving their record to 6 wins from their last 7 games.
Stats That Matter
In recent years Wolves have managed to hold their own against Aston Villa with 6 wins, 3 draws and only 3 losses across the last 12 meetings. They have however lost their last two trips to Villa Park by multiple goals and have conceded a whopping 27 goals this season. Wolves have won only 2 of their last 16 league games as an away underdog while Villa has a good record in this spot with 11 victories and 4 draws in their previous 16 games as a home favourite. Wolves attack has rarely bailed them out as they have failed to find the back of the net in 8 of their last 12 defeats away from home.
Prediction
We tend to steer clear of short-price favourites, but Aston Villa are a lock this week. Wolves have been outscored 8-0 in their last 3 away games and the trip to Villa Park has been one of the most difficult in the league in recent seasons. Aston Villa have been in outstanding form in the last two months and have notably won their last 4 home games in the Premier League. Have them winning by a margin of 2+ goals and do not believe that Wolves will find the back of the net.
Tips
Best Bet: Aston Villa WIN ($1.52)
Value: Aston Villa -1.5, Both Teams To Score – NO ($3.27)
Preview
It has been a huge week for both teams, and the title chase could take a big turn at the end of 90 minutes. Chelsea were comfortable 2-0 winners away to Burnley making it three league wins on the trot, but it is their midweek victory over Barcelona (3-0) that will give them confidence when they host the league leaders. Similarly, Arsenal crushed Spurs and backed that up with a clinical 3-1 win over German champions Bayern Munich. The Gunners currently have a 6 point buffer on second placed Chelsea – a lead that could extend to 9 points or be halved to just 3!
Stats That Matter
You have to go all the way back to August of 2021 to find the last time that Chelsea beat Arsenal in a league game. The Gunners are undefeated in the last 7 meetings (5 wins) which includes 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 4 trips to Stamford Bridge. Unlike Spurs, we are unlikely to see Chelsea park the bus as Over 2.5 goals has hit in 68% of their home games in the last year and in each of their last four EPL matches at this ground. That said, there is a distinct difference in the way which Arsenal play on the road compared to home. There have been 18 goals scored in their 6 home games but only 12 (50% less) in their first away league games this season.
Prediction
There has been a clear pattern in the way Arsenal go about their business in away games this season. They have been patient and employed a defence-first mentality. There have been a total of only 5 first half goals scored across their first 6 away games, and they have accounted for only three of those with matches at Fulham and Liverpool being scoreless at the break. Will be very surprised we see more than a single goal in the first 45 minutes here and am expecting a tight/tactical battle to produce very few goals.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.85)
Value: 1st Half Under 0.5 Goals ($2.80)