Premier League Tips & Preview: Matchweek 12

Preview

Chelsea were winners of their last two and 4 of their previous 5 league games following the international break. The run has catapulted them into 3rd on the ladder and within striking distance of Arsenal. They will be looking to continue their good form against a Burnley side that sits just outside the drop zone following back-to-back losses.

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Stats That Matter

This matchup has been a painful one for the home side. Chelsea are undefeated in the last 11 Premier League meetings in this series with 8 wins and 3 draws in that stretch. The Blues have discord multiple goals in all but one of those games which has contributed to Over 2.5 goals hitting in 10 of the previous 12 clashes between the two clubs. Burnley have scored at least once in 10 of their last 12 EPL matches with the duo of Liverpool and Arsenal the only two teams to keep a clean sheet against them during that period. Chelsea have recorded 8 road wins in the last 12 months with 5 of them being by a single goal margin and just the three accompanied by a clean sheet.

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Prediction

Burnley are playing better football than their position on the ladder suggests. Admittedly the loss against West Ham was far from ideal but they have had a very difficult schedule to date having played 7 of the top 8 teams on the ladder. Have them finding the back of the net but it still may not be enough to earn them a point as Chelsea are on a roll.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.75)
Value: Chelsea WIN, Both Teams To Score – YES ($3.19)

Preview

The doubters were quick to discredit Sunderland’s excellent start to the season and their 2-0 loss to Man Utd was supposed to be the start of their slide down the ladder. Instead, they posted wins over Chelsea and Wolves – capping things off with a 2-2 draw against Arsenal. In contrast, Fulham have lost 5 of their last 6 despite finding the back of the net at least once in all but two of those games. Despite this, the bookies have installed Fulham as clear favourites.

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Stats That Matter

It has been more than a decade (2014) since these two teams met in the top flight. They went to battle 8 times in a four year span with the away team winning 3 of the last 4 and losing just once overall. Sunderland have 2 wins and a draw from 5 games as an away underdog this season with a return on investment of 166% in those matches. Meanwhile, Fulham have won only 6 of 13 as a home favourite in the last year with a total of only 5 clean sheets in their last 38 league games. Sunderland are one shy of that mark (4) through 11 games played this campaign. Notably, Under 2.5 goals is 4-1 in Sunderland’s 5 away games played this season.

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Prediction

The market is disrespecting Sunderland in a big way. The Black Cats have taken points in away trips to Chelsea, Arsenal and Crystal Palace and have conceded multiple goals only three times this season. They will be full of confidence following a draw with Arsenal and their defensive identity away from home will serve them well in the trip to Craven Cottage. Sunderland double chance is the best bet of the week!!!

Best Bet: Sunderland Double Chance ($1.75)
Value: Sunderland WIN/Under 3.5 goals ($4.20)

Preview

Wolves’ dreadful season continued with a second consecutive 3-0 loss – this time away to Chelsea. It was their 4th consecutive loss and third straight game conceding 3+ goals. They must now find a way to score against a Crystal Palace side that have conceded the third fewest goals in the competition and who they have beaten once in the last nine meetings.

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Stats That Matter

Crystal Palace have a tremendous record in this matchup. Outside of the fact that they have registered 7 wins and a draw from the last 9 clashes, they have scored 12 goals in the last 4 meetings alone. Both teams have scored in each of those four games with 4+ total match goals on each occasion. Palace do not start as road favourites often but have been lethal in this spot with 5 wins and a draw in their previous 6 as an away favourite. This record is made more advantageous here as Wolves have posted only 2 wins in 11 attempts as a home underdog in the last year.

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Prediction

When Palace travel on the road against top opposition they rely heavily on their defensive structures. Under 2.5 goals is 2-0 in their two away games this season against teams currently in the top 4 but in their three trips to sides outside the top 4, Over 2.5 goals is 3-0. Wolves have conceded an average of 3.0 goals per game in their last 3 with Palace averaging that exact figure in their last four games in this matchup. There will be more goals than expected in this contest with Mateta to have a day out up front for the visitors.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.95)
Value: Crystal Palace Over 2.5 goals, Mateta Anytime Goalscorer ($5.17)

Preview

Had this match taken place three weeks ago, Bournemouth would have been installed as almost unbackable favourites. Since then, their 8-game unbeaten run has been ended by consecutive losses (3-1 and 4-0 away to Man City and Aston Villa respectively). Meanwhile, West Ham posted back-to-back home wins over Newcastle and Burnley.

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Stats That Matter

Bournemouth have not been able to find a way to collect maximum points against the Hammers. The last 4 meetings have ended in a share of the spoils with West Ham victorious in the three prior clashes to that. Bournemouth’s win last week was just their second victory in their last 10 attempts when coming off a win but they have notably managed to claim at least a point in 8 of their last 15 games as an away underdog with a healthy return on investment in those games. When the Hammers win on the road they tend to win well with 5 of their last 6 away wins coming by a margin of 2+ goals and accompanied by a clean sheet.

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Prediction

One would expect Bournemouth to bounce back returning home following defeats against two of the better teams in the Premier League (Man City and Aston Villa) but beware the Hammers. They will be confident following back-to-back wins and despite those two victories both coming at home, they have still won more games on the road (6) than at home (5) in the last 12 months. Taking West Ham in the double chance market and for an upset win.

Best Bet: West Ham Double Chance ($2.15)
Value: West Ham WIN – Both Teams To Score – NO ($7.51)

Preview

This is a battle between two teams in a very similar position. Both find themselves mid table but playing their best football of the season. Brighton have tasted defeat in only 1 of their last 7 games while Brentford have won 4 of their last 6 with losses to Man City and Crystal Palace in that stretch.

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Stats That Matter

Home ground advantage has been beneficial in this series with the away team going winless in the last 7 clashes. The corresponding fixture last season ended 0-0 and it was the second time in the last three encounters that both teams failed to score. Both teams to score has hit in only 3 of their previous 8 Premier League clashes but we could see a change in that trend as Brighton have recorded only 3 clean sheets in their last 18 home league games. Over 2.5 goals is 4-0 in Brighton’s last 4 home games and has hit in 67% of their EPL matches at Amex Stadium in the last year.

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Prediction

This is not the ideal time to be backing Brentford. They have a mediocre 31% win rate following a win in the last year compared to 64% in matches on the back of a loss in the same period. In addition to this, Brighton are undefeated at home this season in a run that includes wins over Man City, Newcastle and Leeds. They will extend their undefeated run at Amex Stadium with a commanding victory.

Best Bet: Brighton WIN ($1.90)
Value: Brighton WIN/Over 3.5 goals ($4.33)

Preview

A 2-0 win over Aston Villa ended a four-game losing streak for Liverpool but the victory was short-lived as they were comprehensively outplayed in a 3-0 loss away to Man City. Forest fans will be breathing a sigh of relief as they ended a 9-game winless run with a commanding 3-1 victory over Leeds. They remain 19th on a ladder but an unlikely win could see them climb out of the relegation zone and as high as 15th.

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Stats That Matter

Nottingham Forest stunned Liverpool 1-0 in the corresponding fixture last season, but this is not the same defensive juggernaut that was entrenched in the top 4 for a big part of the year. They are still searching for their first road win of the season (2 draws, 3 losses). As bad as Liverpool have been, they have lost only once as a home favourite in the last 12 months. Of more concern is that their bad performances come in bunches. They have won only 2 of their last 7 following a loss and have conceded at least twice in 3 of their previous 4 league matches after being defeated. The Reds have maintained a single clean sheet across their last 7 league games and 2 in their last 13 games across all competitions.

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Prediction

The 3-1 win over Leeds was vital for Forest to release the pressure valve and they now go to Anfield with nothing to lose. They may have gone a stretch of four games without scoring but have bagged 5 goals across their last 2 games and have been attacking with great intent since Sean Dyche took over. Liverpool have had defensive troubles all season long and it will not be a surprise if the visitors find the back of the net more than once.

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES ($1.73)
Value: Nottingham Forest Over 1.5 goals ($3.70)

Preview

Losses away to Brentford and West Ham in their last two have kept Newcastle in the bottom half of the standings. In comparison, Man City are on the way to reclaiming their best form and have quickly turned in a genuine title threat. They have won 5 of their last 6 with the 3-0 win over champions Liverpool the best of the lot!

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Stats That Matter

Newcastle have had some success against Man City in knockout competitions in the last decade but there has been nothing of the sort in their Premier League battles. Man City are undefeated in the last 12 EPL matches in this series with 9 wins and 3 draws in that stretch. Their attack is starting to blossom, and they will get a chance to showcase their talents against a Newcastle side that has allowed 9 goals in its last 4 league matches. There have been more than 2.5 goals in all four of those matches as a result and in 79% of their league home games played in the last 12 months. The Magpies have a 75% win rate as a home favourite in the last year but are winless as a home outsider in that period with a draw and two losses.

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Prediction

Whether it be due to the sheer number of matches played or the added pressure that comes with playing in the Champions League, Newcastle are in the midst of defensive struggles. They now host the highest scoring team in the competition and a side that they have had no answer for in the past. It has been more than a year since Newcastle won a Premier League game as the outsider with 3 draws and 6 losses in their 9 attempts in that time. Man City have maintained a clean sheet in 5 of their last 6 wins over Newcastle.

Best Bet: Man City WIN ($1.98)
Value: Man City WIN, Both Teams To Score – NO ($3.34)

Preview

Leeds were able to put some points on the board early in the season but 4 losses in their last 5 has quickly seen them slide to 16th and a single point clear of the relegation zone. Aston Villa have gone the other way with a run of 5 wins in their last 6 catapulting them into the battle for a spot in the top four.

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Stats That Matter

Newly promoted Leeds have performed in accordance with market expectations so far this season. They have recorded three wins in their four games as the betting favourite but a winless (0 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses) in 7 matches as the underdog. Leeds’ poor run of form has come on the back of defensive struggles with multiple goals conceded in 5 of their last 6 games. That is cause for concern as Villa have found their range in front of goal – highlighted by a 4-0 win over Bournemouth last time out. Both teams to score has hit in only 33% of Aston Villa away league games in the last year with Leeds having failed to score in half of their last 10 games leading into this one.

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Prediction

Aston Villa may have won 5 of their last 6 but four of those wins were at Villa Park. They have registered just 1 away win this season and have failed to find the back of the net in 4 of their last 6 away league fixtures. Leeds have scored at least once in 4 of their 5 home games played to date and I feel a single goal from either team could be enough to collect all three points on offer. Leeds represent good value to cause an upset.

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – NO ($1.85)
Value: Leeds WIN/Under 2.5 goals ($5.50)

Preview

Just when it looked like Arsenal would kick clear at the top of the EPL ladder, they were held to a draw away to Sunderland. Coupled with a Man City win over Liverpool, and the Gunners lead is down to four points. It was a similar story for Spurs who conceded a 97th minute equalizer at home to the Red Devils after having found two late goals that should have handed them the win. This will be the 198th edition of the North London Derby with Arsenal dominating in recent years.

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Stats That Matter

The Gunners are undefeated in the last 6 league meetings between the two sides with 5 wins and a draw in those games. There has been a common theme in their prior battles at Emirates Stadium and that is goals – a lot of them! Over 2.5 goals is 7-0 in the last 7 EPL clashes between them at this ground with a total of 28 goals scored in those games – an average of 4.0 goals per game. Arsenal have bounced back to win in the prior two occasions after dropping points this season with their defence maintaining a clean sheet in 8 of their last 11 wins at home. Difficult to trust that trend here as both teams to score has hit in 10 of the last 14 North London derbies.

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Prediction

Strap in folks as this derby never disappoints. Tottenham will not be going to Emirates Stadium thinking about holding on for a point as it is a formula that has never worked in the past. They will need to score multiple goals to earn at least a point, and this mentality will ensure a wide open game. Arsenal have been relentless in this matchup, and it has consistently brought the best out of their attack. An early goal for the home side would see the flood gates open early and we could see more than a handful of goals. Back the Overs with confidence!

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.73)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($2.75)

Preview

We’re off to Old Trafford for the final game of the round with Manchester United having found some form. A De Ligt equalizer with virtually the last kick of the game extended their unbeaten run in the league to five games and they are now within a single point of a place in the top 4. Everton’s 2-0 win over Fulham was exactly what the doctor ordered as it gives them some breathing space with respect to the relegation places.

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Stats That Matter

As bad as Man Utd have been in recent years, this matchup has been a very fruitful one for them. They are undefeated in their last 6 league games against Everton and have collected 16 of a possible 18 points in those games. The corresponding fixture last season ended 4-0 with the Red Devils having won three in a row against Everton at Old Trafford (clean sheet in all three games). The Toffees have won only 3 of their last 11 games following a win with Under 2.5 goals holding in 64% of those games. Backing the Under is Man Utd games this season is ill-advised as they have maintained just the one clean sheet in 11 EPL matches played.

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Prediction

Man Utd are finally starting to attack with purpose. They have scored multiple goals in each of their last 5 league games but by no means can we begin to trust their defence. As mentioned, they have maintained just one clean sheet this season and have registered a total of only 6 in their last 37 league games played. Nevertheless, they have shown enough in attack to win this game even if they concede but our primary bet here is the both teams to score/Over 2.5 goals double.

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score/Over 2.5 goals ($2.10)
Value: Man Utd Over 3.5 goals ($3.10)