Premier League Tips & Preview: Matchweek 10

Preview

A winless Wolves side were incorrectly installed as firm favourites at home to Burnley last week and found themselves two goals down inside half an hour. They were able to even the ledge but conceded in injury time leaving them dead last on the ladder and already 6 points adrift of safety. Similarly, Fulham also conceded in time added on away to Newcastle with the 2-1 defeat being their fourth in a row.

Stats That Matter

We may be only 10 games into the season, but this one is worth more than 3 points as a Fulham win would see Wolves fall 9 points away from the safe zone. Both teams to score has hit in each of the last five meetings between these two with the away team collecting maximum points in both clashes last season. Over 2.5 goals going 4-0 in the last 4 battles with an average of 4.0 goals per game in that stretch. Half of the 10 away games Wolves have lost in the last year have been by a margin of 2+ goals, but it is difficult to trust Fulham who have won only 6 of their previous 13 as a home favourite.

Prediction

Wolves finally started to play football when they trailed 2-0 last week and with the level of desperation having increased, I am expecting them to show initiative from the opening whistle. They have collected at least a point in 4 of their last 5 league trips to Craven Cottage and they are over the odds here. Have both teams finding the back of the net in a high scoring game and fancy Wolves scoring 2+ goals.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES/Over 2.5 goals ($2.60)
Value: Wolves Over 1.5 goals ($3.90)

Preview

Crystal Palace were on fire early in the season but have gone off the boil in recent weeks. Losses away to Arsenal and Everton were split by a draw at home to Bournemouth and a poor result here would see them drop into the bottom half. Meanwhile, Brentford followed up a road win over the Hammers with a huge win at home to champions Liverpool. Both teams sit on 13 points and only four points off 4th placed Sunderland.

Stats That Matter

Brentford achieved a rare season double over Crystal Palace in 24/25 with 2-1 victories in both games. Despite these results, there has been nothing between them in the last 5 years with only 1 of their 8 league clashes being decided by 2+ goals and 5 of those meetings ending in a draw. Both teams to score has hit in the last 6 encounters in this series with 3+ total match goals in the last three. Over 2.5 goals has hit in 10 of Brentford’s last 16 games following a win but they have managed to win only 5 of those games. Palace have been draw specialists in the last year with the teams sharing the spoils in 8 of the last 18 EPL matches played at Selhurst Park.

Prediction

The main ingredient to the long unbeaten run of Crystal Palace was their defence. Regardless of the opponent or location, they were consistently able to hand their hat on their defence. That has not been the case in the last month as they have conceded at least once in five straight league fixtures. Moreover, Brentford have scored at least once in each of their last 14 away league games and there have been 4 or more total goals in 4 of their last 6 matches leading into this one.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES ($1.70)
Value: Brentford Over 1.5 goals ($2.90)

Preview

Nottingham Forest rolled out their new manager (Sean Dyche) last week but there was no change to the results. They went down 2-0 away to Bournemouth and have now lost their last four games – all to nil. A manager that knows all about pressure is Ruben Amorim, but the pressure valve has been released at Old Trafford after Man Utd put on an impressive display in a 4-2 win over Brighton. They are now vying for a fourth consecutive league victory.

Stats That Matter

These two teams seem to have flipped roles from last season. Nottingham Forest cannot find a way to score or keep a clean sheet while the Red Devils are rolling. Forest completed the season double over Man Utd last season (3-2 and 1-0) to extend their record to three wins in a row in this series. There has been an average of 3.5 goals per game across their last four meetings and that trend is likely to continue with Forest conceding 2+ goals in 5 of their last 7. Over 2.5 goals is 3-0 in Man Utd’s last 3 away games and they have registered just two clean sheets away from home in the last 12 months.

Prediction

Followers were told not to buy into the perception that teams overperform in their first game with a new manager. Forests’ biggest threat against Bournemouth last week was defender Neco Williams from set pieces but his focus this week will be containing the likes of Mbeumo, Cunha and Diallo. Man Utd have found a flow and rhythm with their attack which has allowed them to overcome some sloppy defending. Maguire is questionable and unlikely to play which means the visitors will be relying on the trio of De Ligt, Yoro and Shaw. It means the goal will be flowing at both ends of the pitch.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES/Over 2.5 goals ($1.89)
Value: Man Utd WIN/Over 3.5 goals ($4.80)

Preview

Eberechi Eze rubbed salt into the wound of his former club last weekend. He scored the only goal in Arsenal’s win over Crystal Palace which allowed them to maintain a four point gap at the top. More importantly, they extended the gap to Man City and Liverpool (5 and 6 points respectively) with both of their biggest rivals dropping points. Burnley were also in the winner’s circle with a 3-2 win over wolves handing them a very valuable three points.

Stats That Matter

The Gunners continue to be in a league of their own when it comes to defence. It has been more than 320 minutes since they last conceded a goal in the Premier League with a total of 6 clean sheets in 9 games played this season. They have maintained a clean sheet in 6 of their 7 victories this season and it has meant that a single goal has been enough to collect all three points. Under 2.5 goals is 4-1 in their last 5 games with 3 of their previous 4 away games producing just a single goal for the match. This lines up with Burnley’s home form this season with Under 2.5 goals holding in all four games played at Turf Moor.

Prediction

For the foreseeable future, we will be getting better odds than we should for Under 2.5 goals in any game involving Arsenal. As overwhelming favourites in the H2H market, statistical models have them scoring more than two goals on their own. This fails to take into consideration that Arsenal are happy to kill the tempo for extended periods in a match. There has been a total of only 2 goals scored in the first half hour period across their 9 matches played this season with Under 2.5 goals going 6-3 despite the Gunners netting 5 goals after the 75th minute this season. Backing Under 2.5 goals with Arsenal to win 1-0 or 2-0.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($2.00)
Value: Arsenal WIN/Under 2.5 goals ($3.10)

Preview

Leeds are coming off a crucial home win over West Ham that has helped them create a 6-point buffer clear of the drop zone. Their only away win this season came at last placed Wolves and Brighton will be desperate to bounce back after a 4-2 loss at Old Trafford ended a run of four games without defeat.

Stats That Matter

They have locked horns a total of 6 times this decade in the top flight with Brighton undefeated in those matches – 3 wins and 3 draws. Brighton have been very good following a loss in the last year with 4 wins, 4 draws and only 2 defeats. Over 2.5 goals has hit in 90% of those games not to mention 4 of their previous 5 league home games. Leeds have lost their two games as an away underdog so far this season and have failed to score in all three of their defeats on the road. They will have a better chance of finding the back of the net here as both teams to score has hit in each of Brighton’s last 7 games leading into this one.

Prediction

Brighton’s defence has been questionable to say the least as they have conceded at least once in their last 11 league fixtures dating back to last season. Over 2.5 goals is a fantastic bet in this spot and without question the best bet of the weekend. I have Leeds scoring but with Brighton netting 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 home games, the hosts will have enough goals in them to take the three points on offer.

Tips

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.75)
Value: Brighton WIN/Both Teams To Score – YES ($3.29)

Preview

Their respective midweek results in the Carabao Cup should be disregarded as both teams opted to play second string line-ups. Chelsea were able to squeeze out a win over Wolves while Spurs went down to Newcastle. More importantly, Spurs were 3-0 winners away to Everton in the league which helped solidify a spot in the top 4 while Chelsea were disappointing losers at home to Sunderland (2-1). The pressure is on the Blues as they could fall into the bottom half if they fail to win this one.

Stats That Matter

Spurs may sit 3rd on the EPL ladder but have claimed back-to-back victories only once this season and in only 3 of their last 11 following a win. Of the 17 points they have collected this season, 13 of them have been earned on the road with a total of only 4 points in 4 league games played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Chelsea have won the last four meetings with a combined score of 11-2 across those games. Spurs have recorded just 2 clean sheets in their last 19 EPL matches at home with 3+ total match goals in 68% of those fixtures. Over 2.5 is 6-0 in Chelsea’s last 6 games with an average of 4.0 goals per game in their last 4 away Premier League matches.

Prediction

The decision of their respective managers to sit out their key players in the midweek League Cup games reveals their priorities and that is the Premier League. With the likes of Bournemouth and Sunderland in the top 4, there is no such thing as an easy game and the competition for a spot in European football is fierce. It rains goals when there two teams meet and in all recent Chelsea games so this is yet another game this week where we will be on the Overs.

Tips

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.70)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($2.63)

Preview

We are yet to play the 10th game of the season, but Liverpool’s title defence is in grave danger. They crashed to a 4th consecutive league defeat (3-2 at Brentford) and are now 7 points behind league leaders Arsenal. To make matters worse, a second string Reds side were comprehensively outplayed in a 3-0 loss to Crystal Palace in the League Cup during the week. In complete contrast, Aston Villa extended their win streak in the league to 4 games with an outstanding 1-0 result away to Man City.

Stats That Matter

A stunning goal from Matty Cash gave Aston Villa the lead inside 20 minutes at Etihad Stadium and it was enough to earn them all three points. They failed to score in their first four games this season but are unbeaten since and the goals should continue to flow here. Liverpool are in shambles defensively and have conceded 9 goals during their 4-game losing streak. Both teams to score/Over 2.5 goals has hit in 7 of Liverpool’s 9 league games played with 6 of their 9 opponents scoring multiple goals.

Prediction

Liverpool have allowed 14 goals this season with only five teams conceding more than them! The Reds are undefeated in the last 9 meetings in this series but are a side currently lacking confidence across the park. Over 2.5 goals has hit in 65% of Aston Villa games following a win in the last year and in 68% of Reds home games in the same period. We have been successful backing Liverpool’s opposition to score at least twice in recent weeks and will continue with that trend.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score/Over 2.5 goals ($1.79)
Value: Aston Villa Over 1.5 goals ($3.00)

Preview

A 2-1 loss away to Leeds means that the Hammers have collected just a single point from their last 6 league games. Meanwhile, the crowd at St James’ Park ran wild after Guimaraes netted the winner for Newcastle in injury time against Fulham and the visitors will be brimming with confidence after getting the better of Spurs in a midweek Carabao Cup fixture. The two sides split the ledger last season with each team winning on the road.

Stats That Matter

The Magpies have compiled a record of 7 wins and 3 draws in their last 12 games as an away favourite but have struggled in away games so far this season. They are winless on the road (3 draws, 1 loss) and have scored just one away goal across their last 5 away games in the Premier League. This may be an away game on paper, but the Magpies have a phenomenal record against West Ham at this ground. The Hammers are yet to beat Newcastle in the league since moving to London Stadium with Newcastle registering 4 wins and 2 draws in the 6 clashes at this venue. West Ham have rarely caused an upset in this spot with just the 1 win in 12 attempts as a home underdog in the last year.

Prediction

Newcastle may have failed to score in 3 of their 4 away games played but they also have three clean sheets which is a great sign. The Hammers have failed to find the back of the net in 2 of their last 3 games and it is difficult to see them improving against a team that is very sound defensively. Woltemade has 4 goals in 6 EPL appearances this season and also found the back of the net in the League Cup win over Spurs. He is growing with confidence, and this is the perfect game for him to continue his goal scoring spree.

Tips

Best Bet: Newcastle WIN ($1.67)
Value: Newcastle WIN, Both Teams To Score – NO, Woltemade Anytime Goalscorer ($5.42)

Preview

The market got it wrong last week with Man City being installed as odds on favourite making Aston Villa double chance the best bet of the round. City went down 1-0 at Villa Park but in a case of rinse and repeat, they are at an even shorter price this week against a Bournemouth side that are currently 2nd in the standings. The Cherries extended their unbeaten run to 8 games with a comfortable 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest.

Stats That Matter

Man City return home where they have won their last three league games, but we have seen them struggle in patches in recent times. They have won only 4 of their last 11 EPL fixtures following a loss with Over 2.5 goals hitting in 73% of those games. One of the keys to Bournemouth’s success is the ability to collect points on the road. Their attack deserves the bulk of the credit for that as they have found the back of the net at least once in 18 of their last 19 away games. That includes all four away games so far this season with multiple goals in three of those games. They have also managed to replicate this against City having scored a goal in 4 of their last 5 battles in this series.

Prediction

What must certain teams do to gain the respect of the betting public??? Bournemouth have gone on an unbeaten run of 8 games since losing to Liverpool on the opening day but even in defeat, they managed to score twice at Anfield. There have been 3+ total match goals in 16of Bournemouth’s last 18 away games and in each of the last 8 meetings in this series played at Etihad Stadium. More often than not we are making plays on the Unders, but this week is a case of goals galore across the board.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score/Over 2.5 goals ($1.87)
Value: Bournemouth Over 1.5 goals ($3.30)

Preview

Leading into this season, the last 6 teams who got promoted to the Premier League went straight back down. That will not be happening this time around as Sunderland have already amassed 17 points and find themselves in the top 4 following an upset 2-1 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Everton are coming off a second consecutive loss to nil and will need to start picking up some points away from home.

Stats That Matter

Sunderland are undefeated at the Stadium of Light this season with 3 wins and a draw yet have somehow opened as the outsider for this one. They will not mind it one bit as they have posted two wins and a draw from three games as a home underdog this season. Sunderland’s defence has been brilliant with only 7 goals conceded through 9 games. Under 2.5 goals is 5-1 in their last 6 EPL matches and that trend is likely to continue as there have been fewer than three total goals in 72% of Everton away games in the last 12 months. It has been close to a decade since they last met in the top flight but there could be some historical relevance as both teams to score has hit in only 2 of the previous 9 league meetings in this matchup.

Prediction

We’ve been on the Overs across the weekend games, but goals will be very hard to come by in the final game of Gameweek 10. Sunderland have conceded just 2 goals in 4 league matches played at the Stadium of Light and there have been 7 goals across their previous 4 matches following a win (1.75 goals per game). Almost 38% of Everton matches in the last year have ended in a draw with a profit on turnover of 174%. Will not be surprised if this one ends in a goalless draw.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.60)
Value: Under 1.5 goals ($2.70)