Pacific Championships | Final

The Kiwis have been the dominant nation of the Pacific Championships, but Samoa have a chance to bounce back in the game that matters – the final. Their battle in the first week of this series ended 24-18 in the Kiwis favour led by a Casey McLean double. Stacey Jones has named the same 17 that dismantled Tonga 40-14 last week with the trio of McLean, Timoko and Dylan Brown all getting on the score sheet for a second consecutive game. Samoa also accounted for Tonga (34-6) in a result that ended a 6-game losing streak. Su’A replaces Nanai (shoulder) with Tevaga named to start after coming off the bench. In another boost for Samoa, there will be no home ground advantage for the Kiwis with this game taking place at CommBank Stadium in Sydney.

Stats That Matter

Samoa continue to strengthen their squad but New Zealand remains their kryptonite. The Kiwis improved their perfect record in this matchup to 6-0 with a 24-18 win in Week 1 of the Pacific Championships. It was another stellar defensive play from New Zealand who have held their opposition to less than 20 points in 14 of their last 17 matches. Casey McLean has been on fire in all forms of football with 13 tries in his last 12 competitive matches and now gets to line up on the wing! The same applies with Murray Taulagi for Samoa who has 7 tries in his last 7 including one in each of his last two games for Samoa. New Zealand competed in the final of this tournament in 2023 with their 30-0 win over Australia one of the greatest performances in their history.

Prediction

We were on the money with the Unders when these two locked horns a few weeks ago and the total has been adjusted accordingly – but not enough. The last two finals of this competition have produced 34 and 30 total match points respectively. The appointment of Ashely Klein as the referee should also work in our favour. He has officiated three Pacifica Championship matches in the past and all of them have produced no more than 40 total match points. The duo of McLean and Taulagi are the pick of the try scorers with the Kiwis a very good bet to cover the line.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 43.5 points ($1.90)
Value: 21-30 Total Match Points ($6.00)
Same Game Multi: New Zealand WIN, McLean Anytime Try, Taulaigi Anytime Try ($5.95)