Premier League Tips & Preview: Matchweek 8

Preview

To say that Ange Postecoglou is skating on thin ice is an understatement. A home loss to Sunderland was followed by a 3-2 defeat as huge favourites in the Europa League against Midtjylland and capped off with a 2-0 loss to Newcastle prior to the international break. Nottingham Forest are winless since the Australian took over and must now contend with a Chelsea that just beat Liverpool!

Stats That Matter

Nottingham Forest have collected a single point from their last five league games and have found the back of the net only once in that stretch. In comparison, Chelsea have averaged more than two goals per game in their last 6 EPL matches and have netted 9 times in their last 4 away fixtures. The Blues have won the last two meetings between the two at City Ground (1-0 and 3-2). It has been a case of goals galore in recent Chelsea matches with Over 2.5 hitting in their last 4 overall and each of their last 3 away games. Forest have won only 1 of their last 5 as a home underdog while 4 of Chelsea’s last 6 away wins have been by a single goal.

Prediction

Can’t have any piece of Forest at present – irrespective of their opposition. A lack of goals is a clear issue but of greater concern is their defence. They have conceded multiple goals in 6 of their last 8 across all competitions so we can comfortably pencil Chelsea in to score at least twice. We will continue to back against Forest until we see significant improvement from their defence.

Best Bet: Chelsea WIN ($1.91)
Value: Chelsea Over 2.5 goals ($3.40)

Preview

Through seven games of the season, only two points separates Man City and Everton. Haaland gave City the lead inside 10 minutes away to Brentford and it ended up being the only goal of the contest. Meanwhile, Everton were able to overcome a deficit with Grealish scoring the injury time winner that ended the unbeaten run of Crystal Palace. Sadly for Everton, Grealish is ineligible to play against his parent club as part of the loan deal that sent him to Merseyside.

Stats That Matter

Momentum has been a key factor to Everton’s resurgence dating back to the second half of last season. They have lost only 2 of their last 12 league matches following a win with 5 victories and 5 draws in those games. Interestingly, Under 2.5 goals has held in 67% of those games and there is no better spot to back them than as a road underdog. They have claimed at least a point in 10 of their previous 16 fixtures as an away outsider and have been able to claim a draw in 2 of their last 3 trips to Etihad Stadium. Man City have scored 11 goals across their last 3 home games but Under 2.5 goals has netted backers 79% profit on turnover in games following a win in the last year.

Prediction

As is common in the Premier League, the big name clubs such as Man City are consistently overvalued by the market. Everton have lost 7 times away from home in the last year but only one of those defeats has been by a margin of 2+ goals. The Toffees defence has been stellar for an extended period and City have notably been held to fewer than two goals in 4 of their last 6 Premier League matches. Really like Everton +1.5 in the handicap market and believe they can come away from this contest with a point.

Best Bet: Everton +1.5 ($1.65)
Value: Draw ($4.75)

Preview

Leeds are coming off their first home loss of the season but despite the 2-1 loss to Spurs, remain clear of relegation in 15th place. Of the three promoted teams (these two and Sunderland), Burnley are the only one currently in the drop zone (18th). Defence has been the issue for Burnley as they have now collected a single point from their last five games despite scoring at least once in four of those matches.

Stats That Matter

They finished 1st and 2nd respectively in The Championship last season with both teams tallying 100 points. Leeds would claim the title on goal difference, but it was Burnley that had greater success in the H2H. They were 1-0 winners at Elland Road with the return leg at this ground (Turf Moor) ending in a 0-0 draw. Under 2.5 goals is 3-0 in Burnley home games this season with a total of 5 goals across those games. Leeds have been held to nil in 2 of their 3 away games and broke the drought in a 3-1 win in their most recent away fixture at Wolves.

Prediction

Their two battles in The Championship last season are far more relevant than any meetings in the top flight that occurred between 2020-22 with Leeds posting 3 wins and a draw in their four clashes. They know one another extremely well from last season and a single goal scored across two games is a good indicator of how this one will play out. Burnley have had a defence-first mentality at home this season and that trend will continue here.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.65)
Value: Under 1.5 goals ($2.80)

Preview

Brighton extended their unbeaten run to three games with a 1-1 draw away to Wolves prior to the international break and could move into the top half with a win here. Newcastle’s 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest was only the second time this season that they scored multiple goals in a game but their defence has been stellar and makes them a threat in every game they play.

Stats That Matter

The Magpies victory over Forest was just reward and they could climb up the standings very quickly if they can average two goals per game. Their defence has been incredible with Arsenal the only team to have conceded fewer goals. Moreover, Newcastle have 5 clean sheets in 7 games played this season with Liverpool and Arsenal (the two best teams in the league) the only teams to score against them. Keeping Brighton at bay will not be easy as they have found the back of the net at least once in 14 of their last 15 EPL matches. Under 2.5 goals has held on in each of the last three meetings in this series and each of Newcastle’s last 5 away games dating back to last season.

Prediction

Newcastle are yet to concede a single goal away from home this season with all three of their away games in the league ending 0-0. Replacing Isak has not been easy, but we are finally starting to see their attack look more threatening. Brighton have scored more than once in only 1 of their last 8 meetings against Newcastle and most of those games were against an inferior defensive unit to the one that the Magpies have become. Taking Newcastle in the double chance market as a banker for all multis and like their chances of winning to nil.

Best Bet: Newcastle Double Chance ($1.53)
Value: Newcastle WIN, Both Teams To Score – NO ($4.46)

Preview

Wolves are the only team without a win so far this season, but they have shown improvement in recent weeks with back-to-back draws against Spurs and Brighton. Sunderland’s run of four games without loss came to an end in a 2-0 loss at Old Trafford but they did manage a line share of possession in that game.

Stats That Matter

There were major concerns for Wolves’ defence after they conceded 12 goals through their first 5 games. We have seen significant improvement in that department in recent games which has translated to consecutive 1-1 draws. Sound defence is rewarded in the top flight and Sunderland are an excellent example of this. They have allowed just 6 goals in 7 games which has earned them a spot in the top half. Under 2.5 goals is 4-0 in their last 4 games and despite their excellent start to the season, this is the first time that they have been installed as the betting favourite. They are undefeated at home this season (2 wins, 1 draw) while Wolves are in search of their first road win. Under 2.5 goals has held in all three Wolves away games this season with a total of only 4 goals scored across those games.

Prediction

If you are seeking a game with goals this is not the one to tune in for. Goals have been few and far between in Wolves away games this season with the last placed side scoring just once in three road fixtures. Their two losses both ended in a 1-0 score line, and it is worth mentioning that Sunderland have scored at least once in each of their three league games played at the Stadium of Light. If they can continue that streak, a single goal could be enough to give them all three points .

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.57)
Value: Sunderland 1-0 ($6.50)

Preview

Crystal Palace travelled to Everton having gone 19 games without defeat across all competitions. They took a 1-0 lead into half time but Everton were able to equalise from the penalty spot with Ndiaye before Jack Grealish scored a dramatic winner in injury time. Bournemouth took a leaf out of the Everton playbook with 3 goals in the final 15 minutes to defeat Fulham 3-1. Semenyo was the star of the show with a double and is second to Haaland on the goal scorer’s chart.

Stats That Matter

Bournemouth’s only defeat away from home this season came at Anfield with their most recent road fixture being a 2-2 against Leeds. They have scored at least once in 17 of their last 18 away games with Over 2.5 goals hitting in almost 80% of those games. Need to tread carefully here as that trend could come to an end. Under 2.5 goals is 8-0 in their last 8 EPL battles against Crystal Palace with their two clashes last season both ending 0-0. There has been a total of only 10 goals scored across the last 8 meetings in this series and as expected, both teams to score has not hit in any of those games. In addition to this, Under 2.5 goals is 6-2 in Crystal Palace’s last 8 games following a loss and 10-6 in Bournemouth games on the back of a win in the last year.

Prediction

Through their first 6 games, Crystal Palace had allowed just three goals so we can trust them to lean on their defence in this one after conceding twice against Everton. Selhurst Park has been a fortress and a ground which Bournemouth have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches. Really like the Unders here and will not be surprised if the two teams play out a third consecutive scoreless draw.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.85)
Value: Draw ($3.35)

Preview

Back-to-back wins for the Gunners accompanied by consecutive losses for Liverpool have seen Arsenal climb to the top of the standings. Arteta has been criticised for his side’s negative brand of football on the road in big games and although this may not be the fiercest of London derbies, Fulham will not be taking a back seat.

Stats That Matter

Fulham may have lost their last two games, but both of those losses were away from home. They are undefeated at home this season (2 wins, 1 draw) and have outscored their opposition 5-2 in league games played at Craven Cottage this season. Both teams to score has hit in 8 of the last 10 meetings in this series including each of the last four. Over 2.5 is 5-1 in the last 6 clashes and Arsenal are winless in their last two trips to this ground. Fulham have claimed at least one point in 11 of their last 15 following a loss and Arsenal are a losing proposition in this spot having won 9 of their previous 17 as an away favourite.

Prediction

Arsenal have won less than half of their away games in the last year (9 of 19) and Fulham are no slouches at home. The combined score across the last four Premier League meetings between these teams is 6-6 and we are getting a huge price for Fulham to claim at least a draw in this game. Arsenal have focused on defence in their away games – especially in the first half. This will allow Fulham to get a foot in the contest as they have in the past in games against Arsenal. The home side will score, and a single goal could be enough for them to earn a valuable point.

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES ($1.95)
Value: Draw ($4.10)

Preview

Aston Villa failed to score a single goal across their first three league games of the season but are undefeated in their four games since, including wins over Fulham and Burnley in their last two. Spurs have also gone four games without defeat and with just the one loss to date find themselves 3rd on the ladder – just two points behind Arsenal.

Stats That Matter

They split the two meetings last season with the home team winning on each occasion but the most noticeable trend in this matchup is the lack of draws. The last 20 Premier League battles between them have produced a winner with Spurs owning a 14-6 edge in those games. Over 2.5 goals is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings and dating further back, Aston Villa have scored at least once in each of their last 8 away EPL matches when facing Spurs. There is some level of concern for Spurs as they have won only 4 of their last 11 league games when installed as a home favourite. Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of Spurs home games in the last year and 10 of Villa’s last 16 when coming off a win.

Prediction

Two things are for certain in this contest – there will be plenty of goals and it is certain to produce a winner. Expecting this to be one of the highest scoring games of the week and that increases the chance of an upset. With two wins and a draw from the last 4 as the away team, Aston Villa are a good value bet.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.75)
Value: Aston Villa WIN ($3.30)

Preview

Strap in folks for one of the most anticipated games of the season. Regardless of ladder positions and lineups, this is the fiercest rivalry in the Premier League! Defending champions Liverpool have been knocked off top spot following consecutive defeats while the Red Devils and coming off a 2-0 win over Sunderland – their first clean sheet of the season.

Stats That Matter

From early in the season there were concerning signs for Liverpool with respect to their defence. They were able to win their open two games despite conceding multiple goals but in their last two games were unable to replicate that with Chelsea and Crystal Palace both beating them 2-1. Nevertheless, they have won all three league games at Anfield this season and are undefeated at home in the last year (15 wins, 4 draws). Man Utd have won only 2 of their last 12 as an away underdog and have been horrendous in this spot. They are yet to win back-to-back games under Ruben Amorim which includes 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 11 league games following a win. Over 2.5 goals is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in this series with Liverpool scoring 4+ goals in four of those games.

Prediction

It would have been better for Man Utd if Liverpool came into this game in red-hot form. In such an instance, a lack of focus or dip in intensity would have been more likely to occur. Having lost their previous two league games, the Reds will be laser-focused which is bad news for the visitors. Liverpool have embarrassed Man Utd several times at Anfield in recent seasons and the signs are pointing towards a huge win for the home side.

Best Bet: Liverpool WIN ($1.60)
Value: Liverpool Over 3.5 goals ($4.60)

Preview

Brentford put up a tremendous fight against Man City but a lone goal from Haaland meant they have nothing to show for that effort. West Ham were also held to nil in a 2-0 loss away to Arsenal and despite being installed as clear favourites, the Hammers do not have a good record in this matchup.

Stats That Matter

This series has been dominated by Brentford in the last five years. They have 6 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 8 league games against West Ham which includes wins in 3 of the last 4 clashes as the away team. Brentford have held the Hammers to nil in 4 of the last 8 encounters and this is a great spot to be on the visitors as they have posted 9 wins, 4 draws and just the one loss in their last 14 games following a loss. West Ham have lost their last 4 league home games dating back to last season and have claimed maximum points in only 2 of their previous 6 attempts as a home favourite.

Prediction

West Ham spent 112 years at Upton Park with their traditional home being a genuine fortress. They have given away that advantage since moving to London Stadium in 2016 and the results do not lie. They are yet to collect a single point at home this season and Brentford will view this as an excellent opportunity to claim at least a point. The visitors have had a very tricky schedule to start the season which includes games against both Manchester clubs and Chelsea in the last month alone. With battles against Liverpool, Crystal Palace and Newcastle in their next three games, they need something from this game!

Best Bet: Brentford Double Chance ($1.55)
Value: Brentford WIN, Both Teams To Score – NO ($4.54)