Premier League Tips & Preview: Matchweek 6

Preview

Man Utd are coming off a rare win after capitalising on a one-man advantage. Chelsea goalkeeper Robert Sanchez was sent off after only 5 minutes with the Red Devils finding two goals prior to the main break. Chelse would fight back after Casemiro received a second yellow, but the 2-1 win eases the pressure on Ruben Amorim. Meanwhile, Brentford’s struggles on the road continued as the 3-1 defeat away to Fulham means they are yet to collect a point away from Craven Cottage.

Stats That Matter

Consistency has been a major issue for Man Utd in recent seasons – especially the last year where they are winless in their last 10 games following a win (2 draws and 8 losses). They have claimed all three points in only 2 of their last attempts as an away favourite and have been held scoreless in 2 of their last 3 road league matches. In contrast, Brentford have been excellent in this spot. They have registered 8 wins and 5 draws in their last 14 games following a loss and have claimed at least a point in 6 of their last 8 as a home underdog.

Prediction

Do not want any piece of Man Utd in this one. The two goals they scored last week came when they had a one man advantage with Chelsea the better side once both teams were relegated to 10 men. Brentford won the corresponding fixture last season 4-3 and are undefeated in their last 3 league games against the Red Devils at this ground (2 wins, 1 draw). The home side are an excellent bet in the double chance market and a very attractive play to cause an upset win.

Tips

Best Bet: Brentford Double Chance ($1.73)
Value: Brentford WIN ($3.25)

Preview

A brain explosion from Chelsea keeper Robert Sanchez proved costly for the Blues as they were relegated to 10 men in a 2-1 loss to rivals Man Utd. A come from behind win in the Carabao Cup midweek will help steady the ship – especially with none of the key players taking part in that match. Brighton failed to capitalise on a great start and despite leading Spurs 2-0 midway through the first half, would only walk away with a point in a 2-2 draw.

Stats That Matter

Brighton won the corresponding fixture last season 3-0 which ended a three-game losing streak against the Blues. It was the first time in the last 8 clashes that both teams to score did not hit with Over 2.5 goals going 6-0 in the last 6 between them. There have been 3+ total match goals in 10 of Chelsea’s last 11 games following a loss and that streak will likely continue as Brighton have found the back of the net at least once in 20 of their previous 22 away league games. This has translated to 53% of their away games producing at least four goals! Chelsea have an excellent record as a home favourite in the last year with 13 wins, 4 draws and just the one loss in that period.

Prediction

The Blues did themselves no favours last week, but I have them bouncing back in a big way here. Brighton are renowned for being involved with high scoring matches away from home and will not be shy to push numbers forward. The visitors will get on the scoresheet, but it will not be enough to take any points from the contest. Chelsea to win a high scoring and very entertaining contest.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score/Over 2.5 goals ($1.91)
Value: Chelsea WIN & Over 3.5 goals ($3.75)

Preview

After conceding inside the opening 10 minutes, it looked as though it was going to be another loss on the road for Leeds last week. That was until they scored three goals in the space of 15 minutes prior to half time to take control of the contest and register their first away win of the season. Bournemouth’s defensive prowess was on display yet again and the 0-0 draw at home to Newcastle helped them solidify a spot in the coveted top 4. If they are to make an unlikely run and claim a spot in one of the European competitions for next season, this is the type of game that they must win.

Stats That Matter

Bournemouth may have conceded 4 goals in their opening league game away to Liverpool, but their line has been breached only once in their four games since. That includes clean sheets against Spurs and Newcastle – two of the premier teams in the competition. The Cherries have been successful as an away favourite with 3 wins and 2 draws from their previous 6 in this spot and have found the back of the net at least once in 16 of their last 17 away league games. This has contributed to Over 2.5 goals hitting in 78% of Bournemouth’s away EPL matches played in the last year.

Prediction

There have been a total of 10 goals in Leeds three away games to start the season but only one goal scored across their two matches played at Elland Road. That is set to change as the goals flow at a rapid rate when Bournemouth hit the road. As mentioned, Over 2.5 goals has a 78% success rate in their away games played in the last year with Over 3.5 goals hitting at 56% in those games. Very surprised to see Over 2.5 goals opening as the underdog and rate it as one of the best bets of the round.

Tips

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.91)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($3.10)

Preview

Defending champions Liverpool extended their perfect start to the season with a 2-1 win in the Merseyside Derby. They now face the only other undefeated team and who would have guessed that it would be Crystal Palace five games into the season. Palace were very effective with their defensive and direct style of football so there will be no secrets as to their game plan when Liverpool come to town.

Stats That Matter

Crystal Palace are part of a very select group of teams that have been able to contain Liverpool’s attack in recent seasons. They have conceded a total of only 5 goals across their last 6 league meetings against the Reds which includes holding them to nil on two occasions. Liverpool were 1-0 winners in the corresponding fixture last season with Palace claiming a 1-1 draw at Anfield on the final day – spoiling Liverpool’s trophy presentation. Under 2.5 goals is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings and 4-1 in Palaces’ last 5 league games at Selhurst Park.

Prediction

Winning a 6th consecutive game to start the season will not be easy for Liverpool. Crystal Palace are undefeated in their last 11 league games dating back to last season with their last league loss at Selhurst Park coming all the way back in February. That said, Liverpool has scored at least once in each of their last 23 away games in the Premier League which tells us that the home side will need to score if they are to extend their unbeaten streak. A lone goal from either side will likely be enough for the win and it will be Liverpool that gets it.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($2.05)
Value: Liverpool 1-0 ($8.00)

Preview

Man City’s 4-0 win over Wolves on opening day seems like a lifetime ago and they have won only 1 of their 4 games since. They tried to sit on a one goal advantage at Emirates Stadium last week, but Arsenal found a late goal to force a 1-1 draw. The match between Burnley and Nottingham Forest ended with the same score with the home team able to come away with a point despite conceding in the 2nd minute of the game and ending the match with a mere 37% possession.

Stats That Matter

Regardless of form, Man City have always found a way to beat Brentford. They did the double over them last season (3-0 and 3-1) and have now won 10 in a row in this series. Their dominance cannot be underestimated with 9 of those wins coming by a margin of 2+ goals and five of them by 3 or more! They have outscored Burnley 32-2 across the last 10 meetings and does not include a crushing 6-0 win in 2023 in a match where Haaland scored a hat-trick. Burnley have lost their opening two road games of the season – conceding 3 goals in each game. Dating back to their last season in the top flight, they have conceded multiple goals in 9 of their last 12 away Premier League matches.

Prediction

An early goal to Haaland contributed to Man City opting for a defensive set up but it is necessary to mention that they ended the match with 33% possession – the lowest a Pep Guardiola side has registered in any league game. That script will flip for this game as Burnley rank last in the league in this department with 34.2% possession for the season. City could end this contest with more than 75% of the ball and have the talent to break down a team that is going to put 11 bodies behind the ball. A big win will be accompanied by a clean sheet.

Tips

Best Bet: Man City -2.5 Goals ($2.25)
Value: Man City Over 4.5 goals, Haaland to Score 2 or More Goals ($8.32)

Preview

It has been a rocky start to Ange Postecoglou’s tenure as Nottingham Forest manager. A loss to Arsenal was followed by defeat in the Carabao Cup to Swansea after taking a 2-0 lead into half time and the blew another lead at the weekend – this time failing to convert an early lead away to Burnley in a match that ended 1-1. They find themselves down in 15th as a result while recently promoted Sunderland are 8th after extending their unbeaten run in the league to three games.

Stats That Matter

Two wins and two draws have banked Sunderland 8 points, and they will be hoping to add to it in the coming weeks before a very tough schedule through late November/into December. A 0-0 draw away to Crystal Palace in their most recent away game will give them confidence that they can take something away with them from City Ground. Both teams to score is 0-2 in their 2 away games this season and has hit in only 3 of their last 11 overall dating back to the last time they were in the top flight. Forest have won 9 of their last 14 as a home favourite and when they have been successful at home, it has been on the back of their defence. Of their 10 home wins in the last year, they have maintained a clean sheet in 7 of those games.

Prediction

Forest have won only 1 of their last 6 league games at home and the early signs under Postecoglou are not great. Dating further back, both teams have score has hit in only 2 of their previous 10 league fixtures at City Ground so we will be backing that trend to continue. Not ruling out an upset Sunderland win or even a 0-0 draw.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – NO ($1.85)
Value: Under 1.5 goals ($3.20)

Preview

Spurs overcame a 2-0 deficit to claim a draw away to Brighton in their most recent outing and now have a great opportunity to move into second place ahead of Arsenal with a big win. Wolves were able to survive relegation last season but seem doomed from the opening matchday this time around and are the only side yet to claim a single point through five games. They do have a good recent record against Spurs and will be hoping that it counts for something.

Stats That Matter

Don’t be quick to pencil Spurs in for all three points here as they are winless in their last 5 league games against Wolves (1 draw, 4 losses). Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals have both hit in each of the last four clashes with Wolves scoring multiple goals in all those games. Moreover, the Over has hit in 72% of Spurs home games in the last year and the same figure (72%) in Wolves away games over the same period. Spurs have won less than half of their games as a home favourite in the last 12 months (4 of 9) and have maintained a clean sheet in only 2 of their last 18 league matches at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Prediction

Admittedly Spurs do not have a great record as a home favourite in the last year, but they will not get a better opportunity than this to collect maximum points. Wolves have been horrendous and losing after taking the lead at home to Leeds last week has sunk them to a new low. The most important factor here is that Spurs are being heavily overvalued by the market and are significantly shorter than they should be. Backing the both teams to score/Over 2.5 goals double and have made Wolves to score multiple goals the value bet.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 goals ($2.15)
Value: Wolves Over 1.5 goals ($3.80)

Preview

Both teams went into their respective matches last week struggling to find the back of the net. Villa had a golden opportunity after Sunderland were relegated to 10 men half an hour into the game, but they failed to convert it to maximum points. To make matters worse, they conceded less than 10 minutes after they took the lead in what ended as a 1-1 draw. In contrast, Fulham overcame an early deficit by scoring three goals in the space of 15 minutes. Back-to-back wins have helped them climb into the top half where they sit above the likes of Newcastle and the two Manchester clubs.

Stats That Matter

Aston Villa’s lone goal against Sunderland was their first and only goal of the season. The lack of goals dates back to the tail end of last season with Under 2.5 goals holding on in 8 of their last 9 Premier League matches. Both teams to score has hit just the one time in that stretch and their remarkable unbeaten run at home ended in their most recent fixture at Villa Park (3-0 loss to Crystal Palace). Fulham have been a profitable play in this spot and have earned at least a point in 9 of their last 15 games as an away underdog.

Prediction

With Aston Villa managing to score just once in an hour against 10-man Sunderland, I have no faith in them registering their first win of the season here. Fulham have found the back of the net at least once in all but 3 of their last 19 away games in the league making them a likeable play here. Of their 8 road victories in the last year, 6 of them have been by a one goal margin. With Aston Villa having trouble creating and scoring opportunities, a single goal from Fulham could be enough.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.70)
Value: Fulham 1-0 ($8.50)

Preview

A draw at home to Man City looks a disappointing result for Arsenal but escaping with a point following a 94th minute equaliser means disaster avoided. It does mean that they are already 5 points adrift of Liverpool and cannot afford to fall further behind in the title chase. Like Arsenal, the Magpies only loss this season came against Liverpool, but they registered their third 0-0 draw of the season away to Bournemouth last week leaving them down in 13th position on the ladder.

Stats That Matter

One thing that these two teams have in common is a defence first mentality. Arsenal have conceded just two goals across their first five games this season while the three goals allowed by Newcastle all came against Liverpool. The Magpies have maintained 4 clean sheets in their other matches, and this has been a trend for some time. Both teams have scored in only 1 of Newcastle’s last 9 league games with Under 1.5 goals holding on in 6 of their last 7! The Gunners’ two away games to date this season have produced a single goal each which suggests a tight contest. This has also been the theme in the recent clashes between these two with Under 2.5 goals holding on in 8 of the last 9 meetings and both teams to score hitting in only 1 of their previous 12 league battles.

Prediction

Newcastle continue to feel the absence of Isak and it is clear that his replacement Nick Wolemade will not be providing them with the 20+ league goals that the Swede provided them last season. It will have to be done via committee which means more goals from midfield including the trio of Murphy, Gordon and Guimaraes. Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta has been heavily criticised for his defensive tactics in big games and that trend will continue here. When Arsenal go on the road against the better teams in the league, defence is always a priority. Defence is also a strength of the Magpies which will create a dour contest where the two rely heavily on set pieces to create scoring opportunities.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.75)
Value: Under 1.5 goals ($3.10)

Preview

Everton conceded twice in the opening half hour of their trip to Anfield last week but held their own and were the better team in the second half of the Merseyside derby. It ended in a 2-1 defeat, but they will draw plenty of confidence from their performance. The same cannot be said about West Ham who went down at home to Crystal Palace by the same score line – their fourth loss of the season.

Stats That Matter

There may have been a total of 8 goals scored across Everton’s last two away games, but it has been a very different story at home. They are yet to concede a goal in a league game at their new home ground with Under 2.5 goals grabbing the cash in 4 of their last 5 home games dating back to last season. Historically, this has been a very low scoring matchup with Under 2.5 goals going 10-2 in the last 12 meetings. In addition to this, there has been no more than a single goal in 7 of the last 10 battles between them. Despite the low scoring nature of this series, they have shared the points in only 2 of the last 10 encounters.

Prediction

Half of the last 10 matches between Everton and West Ham have ended with a 1-0 scoreline. West Ham have conceded multiple goals in 4 of their 5 matches played and 13 across 5 games which is the only thing preventing Under 2.5 goals from being a significantly shorter price. Irrespective, this will not be a game where both teams score and Under 2.5 goals remains the best bet.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.80)
Value: Everton WIN/Under 2.5 goals ($3.90)