Check out our insider Premier League tips and full preview for the upcoming Matchweek 5 games including EPL best bets for the round!
Preview
The defending champions maintained a 3-point lead courtesy of yet another late goal. This time it was a Mo Salaah penalty in the 95th minute which broke the deadlock away to Burnley. Nobody could find the back of the net in Everton’s 0-0 draw with Aston Villa, but the result means they are sitting pretty in 6th position. The Merseyside derby is one of the most historic in world football meaning we are in for a treat!
Stats That Matter
Under 2.5 goals has held on in 6 of the last 7 meetings with the away team being held to nil in all but one of those games. Liverpool have won the last three Merseyside Derbies played at Anfield with three of those games ending 2-0 and a single goal from the late Diogo Jota the only thing separating them in the most recent clash. Moreover, there have been fewer than 3 total match goals in 79% of Everton’s away league games in the last year. Liverpool have 15 wins and 4 draws in their last 19 as a home favourite while Everton have been a profitable play as an away underdog with a 6-5-5 (W/D/L) record in the last year.
Prediction
More than a year has passed since Nottingham Forest beat Liverpool 1-0 at Anfield – the last time that the Reds were held scoreless at home. With their late game heroics being a staple in almost every game this season, Everton will need to find a goal from somewhere if they are to have any chance of claiming a point. History and current form suggest they will fail to score but Liverpool will not be running riot. It will end 1-0 or 2-0 to the home side.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($2.20)
Value: Liverpool WIN/Under 2.5 goals ($4.00)
Preview
Spurs manager Thomas Frank will have a big smile on his face. His side claimed their third league win of the season, sit 3rd on the Premier League ladder, and just won their opening Champions League fixture (1-0 against Villareal). In contrast, a 2-1 loss away to Bournemouth means Brighton are yet to register a point away from home and their winning form from last season has failed to carry over.
Stats That Matter
Brighton closed the 24/25 season with 4 wins and a draw in a run that includes victories over Liverpool and Tottenham. They completed the season double against Spurs (3-2 and 4-1) with both teams to score and Over 2.5 having now hit in each of the last 5 meetings. One thing that these two teams do not do is share the points. The last 12 meetings have all produced a winner with each side claiming 6 wins each during that stretch. Brighton are undefeated in their last 6 league matches at Amex Stadium but have conceded at least once in all 6 games and at least twice in half of them. They have won only 4 of their last 13 when installed as a home favourite.
Prediction
This has been a very high scoring matchup in recent seasons with 3 of the last four producing 5+ total match goals. Brighton have registered just 2 clean sheets in their last 19 home games and despite Spurs maintaining a clean sheet in each of their three league wins so far this season, I have both teams netting in a high scoring game. Spurs are a great price to take maximum points. Over 2.5 goal has hit in 9 of Brighton’s last 10 games when coming off a loss.
Tips
Best Bet: Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 goals ($1.80)
Value: Tottenham WIN/Over 2.5 goals ($3.90)
Preview
Burnley parked the proverbial bus at home to Liverpool last week and were seconds away from earning a valuable point. Having Ugochukwu sent off in the final minutes of regulation did not help and a Hannibal hand ball handed Salah a chance to win it from the spot which he took. Meanwhile, Ange Postecoglou’s tenure at Forest got off to a horror star. A trip to Emirates Stadium was never going to be easy but they were never in the contest in a 3-0 loss to Arsenal.
Stats That Matter
Burnley may have come straight back up after being relegated but they have now lost 6 of their last 7 matches played in the top flight of English football. A big part of surviving this season will be turning Turf Moor into a fortress and in that sense, they have made a decent start. Forest have found the back of the net at least once in 7 of their last 8 away league games and did come away with a 2-1 win here two seasons ago. Under 2.5 goals is 2-0 in Burnley home games so far this season and I would expect that trend to continue throughout the season.
Prediction
Ange Postecoglou may have an attacking philosophy, but the primary aim will be to get some form of results in the coming weeks. They have a very busy schedule with Europa League commitments which will test the depth of their squad. Forest may have won their last 4 away league games as an away favourite, but I did not like anything about their performance against Arsenal. Their build-up was incredibly slow and the bulk of the passes from midfield, particularly Elliot Anderson, went lateral or backwards. This will allow Burnley to set their defensive line effectively just as they did against Liverpool. Goals will be hard to come by which makes the draw the optimal value bet.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.80)
Value: Draw ($3.40)
Preview
A win away to Nottingham Forest was supposed to kickstart the Hammers season but their return game following the international break ended in despair with Spurs thumping them 3-0 at home. They now host a Crystal Palace side who are one of only three teams (Liverpool and Chelsea) that are yet to taste defeat in the league this season. They needed penalties to get past Millwall in the Carabao Cup during the week but rested several key players for that match.
Stats That Matter
Defensively, Crystal Palace have been incredible so far this season. The only goal they conceded came in a 1-1 draw against Nottingham Forest with clean sheets in battles against Chelsea, Aston Villa and Sunderland. Under 2.5 goals is 6-2 in their last 8 EPL matches dating back to last season, but this is a great opportunity for their attack to shine. Palace have registered 4 wins and a draw in their last 6 clashes against West Ham with 2+ goals scored in 4 of those matches. Over 2.5 goals has hit in each of the Hammers last 6 league games and they have conceded an alarming 10 goals in their last three home games.
Prediction
A Soucek red card did not help the Hammers cause against Spurs but his absence in midfield leaves a struggling side with another hole to fill. Crystal Palace are undefeated in their last 10 league games and have developed an excellent level of consistency – building on the back of a sound defensive structure. A single goal from the visitors will likely be enough to claim maximum points as they have maintained 9 clean sheets in their last 19 away games in the Premier League. Crystal Palace will win to nil.
Tips
Best Bet: Crystal Palace WIN ($2.38)
Value: Crystal Palace WIN, Both Teams To Score – NO ($3.64)
Preview
We are now four games into the season and Wolves remain the only team that has failed to register a single point! They failed to score for the third time this season in a 1-0 defeat away to Newcastle with Leeds losing by the same score line in their trip to Craven Cottage. We may still be very early in the season, but this is a crucial game for two teams that will likely be battling to avoid relegation.
Stats That Matter
Leeds were an attacking powerhouse in The Championship last season but the goals have dried up in the top flight. They have failed to score a single goal since their 1-0 win over Everton on the opening day of the season but that should change here. The signs were bad for Wolves in the tail end of last season with their league record reading 1 draw and 7 losses in their last 8 games. Leeds have won the last three meetings between them in the top flight with the most recent coming in 2023. Wolves have had some success in this spot with 7 wins and a draw in their last 10 Premier League matches as the betting favourite.
Prediction
Outside of a 5-0 loss to Arsenal, Leeds have been very competitive in their other games. Under 1.5 goals is 3-1 in their four games played with a clear focus on defence. The same cannot be said about Wolves who have conceded 3 or more goals in 3 of their 4 league games to date. That includes 7 goals in 2 matches played at Molineux Stadium, so we won’t be taking any piece of them at this price. Under 2.5 goals is a great bet as are the visitors to score a sneaky 1-0 win.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.67)
Value: Leeds WIN/Under 2.5 goals ($5.00)
Preview
If things do not change soon for Man Utd, Ruben Amorim will be on his way. The Red Devils were abysmal in a 3-0 loss to rivals Man City and from what we have seen, there is no easy game for them right now. They now host a very dangerous Chelsea side who are undefeated in the league this season and were minutes away from winning away to Brentford.
Stats That Matter
Despite a horrendous run in recent years, it has been more than a decade since the Red Devils lost a league game at home to Chelsea. They are undefeated in their last 12 league games against Chelsea at Old Trafford and have collected 7 of a possible 9 points in the last three. That said, they have won only 4 of their last 14 home games in the league and have been victorious in only 3 of their last 19 Premier League fixtures when installed as the outsider. Under 2.5 goals is 6-1 in their last 7 games at Old Trafford with Man Utd having failed to score a goal in 4 of their last 7 matches dating back to last season.
Prediction
It has become very clear that Amorim is willing to die on his own sword. He refuses to change his structure and continues to make some very questionable decisions with respect to positional selections. They are getting run off the park in midfield, lack the muscle required to win possession and lack the necessary creativity in the opposing third. Chelsea have scored multiple goals in both away league games played this season and should be much closer to even money in this match. We will be backing them to win, and to win by multiple goals.
Tips
Best Bet: Chelsea WIN ($2.40)
Value: Match Handicap Chelsea -1 ($4.20)
Preview
As we have seen with Liverpool, timely goals make an enormous difference throughout what is a very long season. Fulham could easily be in a battle for relegation had it not been for late goals. They found a late equaliser against Brighton and last week Gudmundsson netted the only goal of the game in the 94th minute. It was a similar story for Brentford with Carvalho’s goal helping them pinch a 2-2 draw.
Stats That Matter
Brentford scored three goals in their two league games against Fulham last season but failed to collect a single point with the Cottagers winning both games (2-1 and 3-2). Extending that streak will not be easy as this has been a difficult spot for Fulham. They have won only 1 of their last 5 home league games and have posted a 38% win rate as a home favourite in the last year. Furthermore, they have been victorious 3 of their last 14 following a win which opens the door for Brentford. The visitors have claimed at least a point in 13 of their previous 22 league games as the outsider and a low scoring game would increase their chances here. Under 2.5 goals is 5-0 in Fulham’s last 5 games with an average of 1.8 goals per game in that stretch.
Prediction
Happy to be against Fulham here at the short price. They do not perform well following a win and the same applies as a home favourite. Brentford have scored at least once in each of their last three trips to Craven Cottage and a single goal should be enough for them to walk away with at least a point. Both teams have shown resilience by way of late goals and a repeat of that would lead to a share of the spoils.
Tips
Best Bet: Brentford Double Chance ($1.75)
Value: Draw ($3.50)
Preview
Aston Villa’s quest for their first win continues following a 0-0 draw away to Everton. They are yet to score a single goal in the Premier League this season with their two points earned both coming in goalless draws. In contrast, Sunderland have made a dream start and their tally of 7 points has them in the top half!
Stats That Matter
Historically, 40 points is the total required to avoid relegation and Sunderland are well on their way. They posted wins in their first two home games of the season (3-0 vs West Ham and 2-1 vs Brentford) and will not be intimidated by Villa. The visitors have won only 2 of their last 6 as an away favourite and have been held to nil in their last 3 away league matches. Dating further back, Under 2.5 goals has held in their last 4 trips away from Villa Park with both teams to score hitting in only 1 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Prediction
Surprises to see Aston Villa installed as clear favourites considering they have failed to score a single goal this season. This may have been excusable had they played the likes of Liverpool and Arsenal, but their last three games have been against Everton, Crystal Palace and Brentford. There is a lot to like about Sunderland’s midfield trio of Xhaka, Diarra and Sadiki as they provide stability and control. A single goal from either side could be enough and I will be backing Sunderland to score it.
Tips
Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – NO ($1.85)
Value: Sunderland WIN/Under 2.5 goals ($6.00)
Preview
From the very first kick this season, Bournemouth have looked dangerous. They scored two goals in a loss to Liverpool to start their campaign and have since won their last three. In comparison, it took Newcastle four games to register their first win of the season with a Nick Woltemade header midway through the first half the only goal in a 1-0 win over Wolves.
Stats That Matter
Newcastle may only have one win against their name so far this season, but they do have three clean sheets with Liverpool the only side to score against them. Dating back to the end of last season, Under 2.5 goals is 7-1 in their last 8 games, and they have conceded a total of only 5 goals across their last 9 league games. Both teams have scored in only 4 of Bournemouth’s last 13 EPL fixtures at Vitality Stadium and the home side have a good history in this matchup. They are undefeated in their last 6 against Newcastle (2 wins, 4 draws) with Under 2.5 goals holding in their last three clashes at this ground.
Prediction
There can be no denying that Newcastle have lost a level of potency in their attack following Isak’s move to Liverpool. Woltemade is a different type of player and despite his 6’6” frame, he is not a traditional target mark. He likes to fall deep, hold up play, and bring his wide men into the game. Newcastle have been playing with a controlled tempo, and this is evident in the low scoring games. The Cherries will not mind that and have notably scored at least once in 6 consecutive league games. Can see them sharing the points in a 1-1 draw.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.95)
Value: Draw ($3.40)
Preview
It was a case of smooth sailing for both teams last week in dominant victories. Arsenal were in cruise control in a 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest with Zubimendi bagging a double. Man City won by an identical score line but beating the enemy (Man Utd) by such a margin carries additional significance. Foden opened the scoring, but it was Haaland who netted twice to move clear at the top of the goal scorer chart with 5 goals in his first 4 games of the season.
Stats That Matter
The corresponding fixture last season was one to remember for the Gunners. Haaland levelled the scores at 1-1 early in the second half but Arsenal would go on to score 4 unanswered goals in a 5-1 thrashing. Man City had a stranglehold on his series with a run of 13 consecutive league wins over Arsenal from 2017 through to 2023. That has changed in the last two seasons with Arsenal undefeated in the last four clashes (2 wins and 2 draws). Man City have been installed as away underdogs three times in the last year and have lost all three matches. They have won only 9 of their last 19 league games following a win with Arsenal marginally better at 11 wins from 20 games in that scenario.
Prediction
Defence has been a priority for Arsenal and is evident by the fact that only one team has scored in each of their four games so far this season (6 games across all competitions). This was most evident in the game against Liverpool and although they are at home for this one, I am convinced that Arteta will employ a similar strategy. Both teams have scored in only 2 of Man City’s last 8 league games so I don’t think we will be getting the high scoring contest that many expect. Going to have something on 0-0 at double figure odds.
Tips
Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – NO ($2.10)
Value: Correct Score 0-0 ($11)