Premier League Tips & Preview: Matchweek 4

Preview

The transfer window may have closed but the headlines continued during the international break with Nottingham Forest firing manager Nuno Espirito Santo. A familiar face in Ange Postecoglou replaces him with the Aussie’s absence from the Premier League a short one. He was sacked only days after winning the Europa League with Spurs and it is his title-winning credentials which have earned him the top job here. His first assignment…. a trip to Emirates Stadium to take on the Gunners!

Stats That Matter

Arsenal are undefeated in their last four games against Nottingham Forest with 3 wins and a draw. They held Forest to nil in both matches last season including a 3-0 win in the corresponding fixture. Over 2.5 goals is 3-0 in their previous 3 clashes at Emirates Stadium and has also hit in 68% of Forest away games played in the last 12 months. Interestingly, Forest have failed to score in only 3 of their previous 19 away league games and there could be a small glimmer of hope as the Gunners have drawn their last 4 league games following a loss.

Prediction

Mikel Arteta was heavily criticised for his defensive tactics in the loss away to Liverpool, and rightly so. They were in a fantastic position to take maximum points and pull clear of the title race against Liverpool. Instead, they waited until they conceded in the 83rd minute before playing proactive football. The good news for them here is that Postecoglou knows one way to play the game and that is to attack. It is great news for the Gunners who should be able to pick them apart. The Aussie manager’s tenure at Forest will be placed under the microscope from the very first game!

Tips

Best Bet: Arsenal WIN/Over 2.5 goals ($2.05)
Value: Both Teams To Score – YES, Arsenal Over 2.5 goals ($4.28)

Preview

Wins over Brentford and West Ham in their opening two home games of the season are huge results for Sunderland. They were split by defeat away to Burnley and they must produce an almighty effort here if they are to end the undefeated start of Crystal Palace. They began with draws against Chelsea and Forest before posting a very impressive 3-0 win away to Aston Villa. A win from either side could see them climb into the top four.

Stats That Matter

Crystal Palace ended last season on an unbeaten run of 6 games which included taking points off Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs. That form has rolled into this season with their undefeated streak now sitting at 9 games. They will have more than a point in mind here and have notably won more than 50% of games as a home favourite in the last year (9 wins, 5 draws and only 3 losses). Under 2.5 goals has held in 3 of the last 4 Premier League matches played at Selhurst Park with 4 of Palace’s last 6 wins at the ground coming by a single goal margin.

Prediction

Sunderland are yet to play any of the top teams in the league but wins command respect. Even in defeat at Burnley, they dominated the game with 58% possession, had more shots than the home side and almost twice as many crosses. They will not be parking the bus here, but it is also necessary to remember that Palace have been excellent dating back to the end of last season. Palace have maintained 4 clean sheets during their 9-game unbeaten run with Under 2.5 goals holding in 67% of those games. Think a single goal from either team could win this.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.80)
Value: Crystal Palace 1-0 ($6.00)

Preview

The Isak drama is finally over, and Newcastle will be hoping that they can get new recruit Yoane Wissa into the lineup as soon as possible following a winless start to the season. Two goalless draws are uncharacteristic for Newcastle, but Wolves would happily sign off on that score here after losing their opening three games.

Stats That Matter

Wolves have conceded at least one goal in 5 of the 6 halves of football they have played so far this season. They have been outscored 16-5 across their last 7 league fixtures and have collected a single point in that span. Three wins in their last 20 games after a loss highlights their struggles with Over 2.5 goals hitting in 65% of those games. Newcastle did the double over Wolves last season (3-0 and 2-1) and are undefeated in the last 7 league meetings (5 wins and 2 draws). When the Magpies win at home it is usually on the back of a stellar defensive performance with 7 clean sheets maintained in their last 10 league wins at St James’ Park.

Prediction

Newcastle have scored multiple goals in four straight games against Wolves and that streak is set to continue. They may have been held to goalless draws against Leeds and Aston Villa, but both of those games were on the road. At home, they have scored 2+ goals in 7 of their last 8 which includes battles against Liverpool, Chelsea and Man Utd. Back Newcastle with confidence.

Tips

Best Bet: Newcastle WIN/Both Teams To Score – NO ($2.24)
Value: Newcastle Over 3.5 goals ($4.80)

Preview

Back-to-back 1-0 wins over Wolves and Spurs have Bournemouth brimming with confidence but their record against Brighton is not pretty with 5 defeats in the last 6 meetings. Brighton are coming off their first win of the season – an upset 2-1 win over Man City in a game they were not expected to win.

Stats That Matter

The goals have flowed at a rapid rate in this matchup with 3+ total match goals in each of the last four meetings. Brighton have netted at least twice in 4 of their last 5 against Bournemouth and have proved to be a team who perform well in patches. They have posted 8 wins and 5 draws with only a single loss in their previous 14 games following a win with Over 2.5 goals hitting in 67% of those matches. Interestingly, 5 of their last 7 away wins have been by a margin of 2+ goals. Replicating those efforts will not be easy as Bournemouth have conceded a total of only 2 goals across their last 5 league games at Vitality Stadium.

Prediction

It may be slightly shorter than I would have hoped but I’ll be running Brighton double chance ($1.55) through all multis this weekend. They have an excellent record against Bournemouth which includes victory in 2 of their last 3 trips to this ground. Their record on the back of a win in the last year speaks for itself and it is also worth mentioning that they have claimed at least a point in 69% of games as the outsider in the last year.

Tips

Best Bet: Brighton Double Chance ($1.55)
Value: Match Handicap Brighton -1 ($5.25)

Preview

Villa had high hopes heading into this season, but it is time to switch into damage control mode. A solitary point from three games has them sitting 19th but the bigger issue is that they are yet to score a single goal! In contrast, Everton are 5th despite losing their opening game as they managed to beat Brighton and Wolves in their last two.

Stats That Matter

If you consider their strong finish to last season, Everton have won 5 of their last 6 Premier League matches. They have lost only 1 of their last 10 home games in the league and have been profitable in this spot with 5 wins and 5 draws from their last 12 games following a win. Under 2.5 goals has held in 67% of those games and is also 3-0 in Villa’s last 2 away games. Moreover, there have been a total of only 4 goals across the last 4 meetings in this series hosted by Everton with Under 2.5 goals going 4-0 and Under 1.5 goals saluting in 3 of the 4 games.

Prediction

The next fortnight will be crucial for Aston Villa as they play 5 games across three competitions in the span of two weeks (League Cup and Europa League). The Toffees won their opening league game at their new stadium 2-0 and they will want to turn the venue into a defensive fortress. Goals have been few and far between in this matchup in games played on Merseyside and with Villa yet to score a single goal in the league this season, the Unders is the play here.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($1.70)
Value: Under 1.5 goals ($3.00)

Preview

Leeds will be satisfied with their start to the season – especially collecting 4 of a possible 6 points at home and holding Newcastle to a 0-0 draw last time out. Meanwhile, Fulham’s undefeated start to the season came to an end in a 2-0 loss away to Chelsea but their schedule does get easier in the coming weeks so we should see them start to climb the ladder.

Stats That Matter

With 7 wins and 3 draws from their last 13 games following a loss, history suggests that Fulham will be at their best in this match. If there is a concern for the home side it is their defence. They have maintained a clean sheet in only 2 of their last 24 Premier League matches at Craven Cottage. In fact, 5 of the last 7 teams to visit have scored 2 or more goals. These two have met four times in the top flight from 2020 onwards with both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals hitting in all four games. There have been a total of 18 goals across those games (4.5 goals per game).

Prediction

If Leeds can continue to collect points at home, they will have a good chance of staying up but it is on the road where I believe they will struggle throughout the season. They were taught a football lesson by Arsenal at Emirates Stadium in their only away game so far this season and we can be assured that Fulham will improve on their performance against Chelsea. Have Leeds finding the back of the net, but it will not be enough for them to walk away with any points.

Tips

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals ($1.95)
Value: Both Teams To Score – YES, Fulham WIN ($3.79)

Preview

It was a case of unexpected results for both teams in Gameweek 3. Spurs won their opening two games but failed to find the back of the net in a 1-0 loss at home to Bournemouth. In contrast, West Ham were hammered by Chelsea and Sunderland to begin their campaign but went to City Ground and beat Nottingham Forest 3-0!

Stats That Matter

Inconsistency is one of the main reasons for the Hammers labouring at the lower end of the ladder in recent seasons. This is most evident in their results following success with 1 win, 1 draw and 8 losses in their last 10 after a win. Over the same period, they have been victorious in only 2 of their previous 11 as a home underdog which is all good news for Spurs. It has been a case of hit or miss for Spurs on the road in the last year as all 6 of their away wins in that time have been by 2+ goals. In contrast, they have failed to score in 6 of their 11 away losses.

Prediction

If there is a concern for the visitors, it is that Bournemouth were very effective against them on the counter – amassing 20 shots with only 39% of possession. In addition to this, the Hammers employed this exact strategy against Nottingham Forest in a match where they netted three times. This is the first speed bump for Spurs new manager, and I am not sold on them – especially after City went and lost at Brighton.

Tips

Best Bet: West Ham Double Chance ($1.70)
Value: Match Handicap West Ham -1 ($6.50)

Preview

Chelsea were held to a 0-0 on the opening day of the season but have quickly found their range in front of goal with a combined score of 7-1 across their last two wins. Brentford have started LWL with two failures on the road and their lone win coming over Aston Villa at Gtech Community Stadium. They will be hoping that a return home will yield some valuable points.

Stats That Matter

Few teams boast a record against Chelsea as good as Brentford over the course of the last few seasons. They have registered 3 wins, 3 draws and just 1 loss in their last 7 meetings with the Blues. Their last three clashes at this ground have ended in a draw and the loss away to Sunderland last week could work in their favour. Brentford have a 57% win rate following a loss in the last year and have lost only 2 of the 14 games in that scenario. In addition to this, they have collected at least a point in 5 of their last 7 as a home underdog while Chelsea have claimed victory in 8 of 14 as a road fav in the last year.

Prediction

The corresponding fixture last season ended 0-0 and a lack of goals has been a common theme in this series. Both teams have scored in only 3 of the last 8 meetings and with respect to the home team, Under 2.5 goals has held in 6 of their last 9 home league games. Going against the grain here and sticking with a low scoring game. Also believe that they will share the spoils.

Tips

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals ($2.05)
Value: Draw ($3.75)

Preview

We may be only three games into the season, but the ladder is already taking shape with Liverpool alone at the top on 9 points. A late wonder goal from Szoboszlai earned them all three points in a crucial battle against Arsenal and they are overwhelming favourites to maintain their perfect record. Burnley were on the wrong end of a late goal with Bruno Fernandes finding a winner for Man Utd in the 98th minute.

Stats That Matter

Burnley will need to be aware of the possibility of more late goal heroics in this one as 4 of the 8 goals scored by Liverpool this season have come after the 76th minute. The Reds have won 5 in a row against Burnley with a combined score of 11-2 across those games. If there is a positive for the home side, it is that Liverpool have maintained a clean sheet in only 1 of their last 8 league games. Liverpool have conceded 2+ goals in 6 of their last 8 away games with Over 3.5 goals hitting in 61% of the road matches in the last year.

Prediction

Don’t know how many lives Liverpool have left but late goals are the sign of a quality side. The clean sheet against Arsenal was their first in some time but much of that was a result of Arsenal’s unwillingness to push numbers forward. Liverpool have been vulnerable at the back dating back to last season – especially on the road. Backing both teams to score and can see Burnley scoring twice and still losing the game.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES ($1.91)
Value: Liverpool WIN, Burnley Over 1.5 goals ($10.44)

Preview

What a way to finish the round! Man Utd are coming off their first win of the season while Man City have suffered upset losses in each of their last two. Bruno Fernandes netted the winner in the dying stages of injury time but it was a case of the opposite for City as they were picked apart on the counter vehicle chasing a winner of their own. Despite having their worst season of the EPL era, Man Utd managed to collect 4 of a possible 6 points in their two battles against their rivals last season.

Stats That Matter

The Red Devils won the corresponding fixture 2-1 last season with goals in the 88th and 90th minute helping them overcome a 1-0 deficit. Over 2.5 goals has hit in 6 of the last 7 meetings and 4 in a row played at Etihad Stadium. The following statistic is hard to comprehend but it has been more than a year since Man Utd won back-to-back games in the premier League with 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 10 attempts. There have been 3+ total match goals in 7 of Man City’s last 10 following a loss and 67% of home games played in the last 12 months.

Prediction

Both teams to score/Over 2.5 goals has hit in 5 of the last 7 meetings in this matchup and that trend will continue here. The two Manchester clubs have played 6 games between them this season but have combined for just the one clean sheet. United has a single clean sheet in their last 10 games dating back to last season and we cannot trust the home side who have conceded multiple goals in each of their last two. This is the type of game where City flex their muscles and will be relying on Haaland to spearhead the attack.

Tips

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score/Over 2.5 goals ($1.85)
Value: Man City WIN, Haaland Anytime Goalscorer, Man City Score in Both Halves ($3.46)