The Hawks took control of the contest in the second term in their battle against the Crows and never looked back. Jack Gunston led the way with a handful of goals, and the 34-point margin would have been bigger if some of his teammates were more accurate in front of goal. They must not find a way to go toe-to-toe with a Cats side that has been piling on the points during a 7-game win streak and will be fresh following the week off.
Head To Head
This series has been dominated by the Cats in recent years. They have won 6 of the last 7 clashes including each of the last 4. An average winning margin of 44 points across the last four meetings has seen the Cats cover the line in all those games and they have notably won 10 of the previous 12 battles when installed as a home favourite. All but two of their meetings from 2008 onwards have been played at the MCG with the Cats winning 4 of the last 5 between them played at the home of footy. The Over has hit in 8 of the last 12 meetings when the Cats have been listed as the home team.
Stats That Matter
There has been a clear correlation between odds and results for the Hawks this season. They have won 13 of their last 15 games as the betting favourite but have posted a 4-5 record as the underdog during that period. The Cats are peaking at the right time having won their last 7 and that is accompanied by a 10-3 record in home games played in the last year. They have led at the main break in 14 of their last 15 home games but will have to contend with a fast start from the Hawks as they have won the first quarter in 7 straight games. The Under is 9-0 in the Hawks last 9 games played at the MCG with the highest total across those matches being 165 total match points.
Prediction
Intensity, execution and accuracy will play a big part in determining the winner of this contest. The Cats have consistently been able to create scoring opportunities against the Hawks and have held them to 65.1ppg across the last 7 meetings. The opening term will be pivotal for the Hawks, and they will need to get their noses in front if they are to stem the flow of the contest. If the Cats get off to a fast start, there will be no running them down.
Best Bet: Cats -9.5 ($1.90)
Value: Geelong 90-99 points ($5.25)
Same Game Multi: 1st Quarter Hawks +2.5, Worpel 20+ Disposals, Shannon Neale 2+ Goals ($5.36)
The Pies were in all sorts during a run of 5 losses in 6 games but a stellar defensive display against the Crows has them contesting a preliminary final for the third time in the last four seasons. This is also familiar territory for the reigning Premiers as this is their 7th consecutive season playing finals footy and the fourth year in a row that they will be playing for a spot in the Grand Final. They were completely dominant in the QClash last week where they held the Suns to a total of only 12 points in the second half.
Head To Head
Two years ago, the Pies beat the Lions 90-86 in a thrilling Grand Final but only one of them will be fighting for the flag next week. That win ended what was a 6-game losing streak against the Lions at the time and the Pies went on to win the next three matches between them that followed. The Lions have bounced back since with a dominant 92-65 win at this ground in Round 21 which helped them improve to 4-6 in the last 10 clashes as the away team. The visitors have been excellent in this spot with a 5-1 line record in the last 6 meetings as an away underdog and any start could be significant if points are difficult to come by. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 clashes with an average of 159 total match points across those games.
Stats That Matter
Despite being one win away from another Grand Final, the Magpies have failed to cover the line in their last 4 home games and face a team that is proven on the road. The Lions claimed the title from 5th position on the ladder last season in a final run that included back-to-back wins at the MCG. They have won 6 of their last 8 games as an away underdog with an impressive 7-1 line record in those games. The Under had held on in each of the Magpies last 8 games and 71% of their matches following a win in the last year. The Pies have led at the end of the first term in their last 6 home finals matches and we might have to wait until the 3rd term for significant movement on the scoreboard as these are the top two teams in the competition with respect to third quarter performance.
Prediction
History suggests that this will be a defensive battle as the Unders has hit at an incredible rate for both teams. Moreover, windy conditions are forecast for Melbourne which will increase the difficulty of splitting the sticks – particularly with set shots from distance. The Lions held the Suns to six majors last week and there are several things to like about them. Outside of the fact that they can win big games interstate, their last 7 games leading into this one have been against teams that made the finals. They have faced quality opposition for the last two months which could work in their favour when the game is on the line.
Best Bet: Lions +5.5 ($1.90)
Value: Under 139.5 points ($4.25)
Same Game Multi: Wire-To-Wire – Any Other Result, 3rd Quarter Winner – Lions, Darcy Wilmot 20+ Disposals ($5.38)