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Liverpool had the title in the bag a long way out last season and after being knocked out of the Champions League earlier than expected, can be forgiven for switching off and going winless in their last four league fixtures. That said, I am expecting a significant regression from them this season and they are there for the taking. Outside of the fact that their two big stars are aging (Van Dijk is now 34 and Mo Salah 33), the latter will need to form new combinations up front with Diaz and Nunez being replaced by Writz and Ekitike. Arsenal have splashed the cash on Viktor Gyokeres but he could struggle to adjust to the relentless pace of the Premier League. In the last few years we have also seen that the Gunners cannot be trusted to win the matches that matter. The form team is without question Chelsea. They won 5 of their final 6 league games of the season to claim fourth spot, thumped Real Betis 4-1 in the final of the UEFA Conference League, and then went on to win the lucrative Club World Cup – beating PSG as huge outsiders in the final. The trio of Palmer, Pedro and Neto have formed a deadly alliance with Enzo Fernandez to play a pivotal role in central midfield. Then there is Man City who have claimed the title in 6 of the last 8 seasons. They have bolstered their midfield with the additions of Reijnders and Cherki, but it is the duo of Haaland and Rodri that will make the difference. The Spaniard missed most of the season and is currently hampered by a groin issue. Haaland is back on deck and if he stays fit, it will be another 30+ goal season for him. You can put a line through the other 16 teams which have not been mentioned. Like Man City and Chelsea!
Best Bet: Man City ($4.50)
Value: Chelsea ($9.00)
A few interesting dynamics in this market mainly to do with player movements. Not sold on Arsenal’s new addition (Gyokores) and very happy to fade him altogether. Mo Salah has multiple new partners in attack and by the time the season starts could have another new addition in Alexander Isak. Newcastle are trying to stand firm and are tipped to leave him out of their squad entirely. Haaland is close to a chips-in job and injury is the only thing that will deny him. If he does manage to miss 10+ games, we could see someone take out the title with a significantly lower total than we have seen in recent seasons. Twenty goals could be enough and that would bring Chris Wood into calculation. Nottingham Forest are unlikely to replicate their efforts from last season but it is worth noting that he scored 20 of his side’s 58 goals. They could exceed that number and finish in the bottom half!
Best: Haaland ($2.38)
Value: Chris Wood ($67)
Only one player of interest in this market and his name is Bruno Fernandes. Despite the Red Devils having a horrendous season, he assisted 10 of their 44 goals (23%). He will have far more potent weapons latching onto the end of his passes this season with Sesko, Mbuemo and Cunha. Bruno will take all the set pieces which should translate to more than a dozen assists. That would put him right in the mix at double-digit odds.
Best Bet: Bruno Fernandes ($10)
The market is happy to lock in Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea as the top 4. A lot can happen in a 38-game season which makes Aston Villa at $5 a good bet. They won 8 of their final 10 league games and are undefeated in their last 18 Premier League matches at home. Added Guessand up front and no major losses to speak of. A slight improvement in their defence away from home will go a long way to helping them sneak into the top four.
Best Bet: Aston Villa ($5.00)
Brighton were outstanding last season and were rewarded with a top half finish (8th). Joao Pedro and Simon Adingra have been sold but I am not overly concerned as their success las season came by way of committee. Last season Brighton had a trio of players score 10+ goals and half a dozen players contribute 4+ league assists. Liverpool and Arsenal were the only two teams to lose fewer games than them meaning there is further room for improvement. That is also something I expect to see from Everton. The Toffees were in danger of falling into the relegation battle after a terrible start to the season but collected points in 15 of their final 18 games. The biggest change came in their defence and if they can remain steady in that department, they’ll finish in the top half.
Best Bet: Brighton ($1.73)
Best Value: Everton ($3.00)
Being promoted to the top flight of English football is a monumental feat for any club. It means becoming a part of the most watched professional sporting league on earth, but staying up has been no easy task in recent years. Up until two years ago, all three teams had gone straight back down (relegated) only once in the Premier League era. That has taken a huge turn in the last two seaons with all three promoted teams going straight back down. Burnley have failed to stay up in 3 of the 4 occasions after being promoted while Sunderland returns to the EPL after an 8-year absence. They finished dead last in their most recent stint in the Premier League with Leeds also going straight back down following their most recent promotion.
Best Bet: Number of Newly Promoted Teams To Be Relegated – All Three ($4.50)